25 Emerging Market Countries will be $27 to $49 Billion Smart Grid Opportunity Over The Next Decade

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Dec 07, 2011, 07:17 ET

WASHINGTON, Dec. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- A new study has identified 25 emerging market countries that are positioned for the next wave of smart grid activity over the coming decade. These countries will represent a smart metering market alone of at least $27 billion and could reach $49 billion by 2020. The total number of electricity meters in these countries will grow to 406 million by 2020, with 28% already under some regulatory mandate or target to be "smart meters." The new study, released by Northeast Group, LLC is entitled "Emerging Markets Smart Grid: 25-Country Overview." It analyzes the smart grid potential of 25 countries from Central/Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East/North Africa, South Africa, and Southeast Asia.

"The majority of smart grid activity to-date has taken place in well known markets in North America, Western Europe and East Asia. These developed markets represent more than 95% of the current installed base of smart meters worldwide. However, there are a number of very attractive emerging market countries that have not received as much coverage and have very strong potential for smart metering and other smart grid projects. We view these 25 countries as representing the next wave of activity worldwide," according to Northeast Group, LLC.

"Smart grid offers emerging markets a number of potential benefits. Countries can improve overall electric utility reliability, reduce electricity theft rates, manage surging demand and incorporate new sources of renewable energy. Modernizing the electricity infrastructure will be increasingly important as these economies grow quickly over the next several years. The 25 countries in the study are forecast to see average annual GDP growth of 4.3% over the next five years, compared with 1.7% in the developed world," according to Northeast Group, LLC.

All 25 countries analyzed in the study are projected to begin smart grid deployments in the coming decade. In fact, 11 of the 25 countries are well positioned to begin large-scale smart grid deployments within the next 1–3 years. These include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the United Arab Emirates. The scope of the study did not include the China or India markets.

Smart metering – or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) – deployments will make up the majority of initial smart grid activity, creating significant meter hardware, communications, IT, and professional services markets across the 25 countries. Following AMI, there is strong potential for distribution automation, substation automation, and home energy management technologies, including distributed solar generation and electric vehicle supply equipment.

Northeast Group, LLC assessed the smart meter potential of each country based on the potential benefits, the regulatory framework in place and the total market size. The report includes details on each of the 25 countries, including their industry structure, regulatory framework, business case indicators, and existing smart grid activity.

"Emerging Markets Smart Grid: 25-Country Overview" is 91 pages long and includes over 80 unique charts, tables and graphics. To order a copy of the report, please visit www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: [email protected]

ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries.

Key questions addressed in this report:

Which emerging market countries have the most developed smart grid regulatory frameworks?
Which emerging market countries have the potential to reap the most direct benefits from smart meter deployments?
Which international and local vendors are best placed to take advantage of growth in emerging markets smart grid?
How will regional bodies such as the EU, ASEAN, and GCC expedite deployments?
What other smart grid projects such as distribution automation, substation automation and home energy management are also evolving?

Table of Contents

i. Executive Summary	1
ii. Methodology	5
1. Introduction	7
2. Global overview	12
2.1 Drivers common across emerging markets	12
2.2 Smart meter potential in emerging markets	14
2.3 Vendor activity	17
3. Regional and country summaries	19
3.1 Template description	19
4. Central/Eastern Europe	21
3.1 Bulgaria	23
3.2 Czech Republic	25
3.3 Hungary	27
3.4 Poland	29
3.5 Romania	31
3.6 Slovakia	33
3.7 Slovenia	35
5. Latin America	37
4.1 Argentina	39
4.2 Brazil	41
4.3 Chile	43
4.4 Colombia	45
4.5 Mexico	47
4.6 Peru	49
6. Middle East/North Africa	51
5.1 Egypt	53
5.2 Oman	55
5.3 Qatar	57
5.4 Saudi Arabia	59
5.5 United Arab Emirates	61
7. Southeast Asia	63
6.1 Indonesia	65
6.2 Philippines	67
6.3 Singapore	69
6.4 Thailand	71
6.5 Vietnam	73
8. Other regions	75
7.1 South Africa	77
7.2 Turkey	79
9. Conclusions	81
8.1 Next steps	81
8.2 List of abbreviations and acronyms	82

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables

Emerging markets smart grid: key takeaways	2
Emerging markets smart meter potential	3
Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain	6
Figure 1.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in emerging markets	7
Table 1.1: Demand response options	9
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets covered in this study	11
Figure 2.2: Annual electricity demand growth (2011 – 2020)	12
Figure 2.3: Global distribution losses	12
Figure 2.4: Annual manufacturing business losses due to power outages	13
Figure 2.5: Emerging markets smart meter potential	14
Table 2.1: Vendors active in pilot projects in emerging markets	16
Table 2.2: Major metering vendor presence in emerging markets	17
Figure 3.1: Smart meter potential in Central/Eastern Europe	20
Figure 4.1: Smart meter potential in Latin America	36
Figure 5.1: Smart meter potential in Middle East/North Africa	50
Figure 6.1: Smart meter potential in Southeast Asia	62
Table 8.1: The next steps and necessary actions	78

In addition to the figures and tables shown above, each country summary includes the following:

Table: industry structure;
Table: regulatory framework;
Chart: regional electricity consumption per capita (kWh);
Chart: regional electricity prices (cents per kWh);
Chart: regional distribution losses (%).

Therefore, this study includes an additional 65 unique charts and tables in addition to those cited above.

SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC