70% of World's Construction Markets Likely to be in Recession in 2023

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Jan 19, 2023, 08:00 ET

LONDON, Jan. 19, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Global Construction Perspectives has today published the latest edition of its annual forecasts for global construction volumes in 112 countries until 2030¹. The report highlights the size and outlook for the construction market in each country. The key points in this latest report are:

Decline Forecast in 2023 in more than 70% of Countries. Global Construction Perspectives forecasts declining volumes in 2023 in 82 of the 112 countries for which forecasts are published. Negatives including higher interest rates, weaker economies and budgetary pressures on the public sector are all likely to depress construction volumes.
Weak outlook for Western Europe. We expect construction volumes to decline in 2023 in 18 of 19 Western European countries that we publish forecasts for. A further drop appears likely in the region in 2024 and the subsequent recovery may be slow, with 2022's construction volumes not expected to be recouped before 2028.
More optimistic on emerging markets. Overall, in the 112 countries, construction volumes are expected to grow by an average of 1.7% pa. in 2023-30. We forecast growth averaging more than 6.5% per annum in 11 emerging market countries, including India. As weakening exchange rates can be a factor in emerging markets, we have adjusted our estimates for the average loss of value in the local currency over the last 12 years. 5 of the 11 countries are still forecast to have 2023-30 growth rates at least triple that of the US.
India overtakes Japan and continues to grow strongly. Strong growth in 2022 in India (estimated at +9.7%) boosted it to the third 3^rd largest construction market globally, overtaking Japan (-5.7%). India's strong growth is expected to continue in 2023-2030, but it's construction market is still only expected to be just over one-half the size of the US (No.2) in 2030 and less than a quarter of the size of China (No.1).