A Look at Four Distinct Voting Blocs

NEW YORK, Oct. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The presidential campaign continues to move towards the first caucus maybe as early as late December. And, in the few short months to the first voting, the road to Iowa and New Hampshire will continue to twist and turn. On this road, there are many ways pundits will examine voting intentions. Here we look at four separate stories: those who are "moderate Independents", those who are "Conservative Tea Party supporters", those who are from states where President Obama won or lost by 5% or less in 2008 and those from 2012 "swing states".

(Logo:  http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100517/NY06256LOGO)

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,462 adults surveyed online between September 12 and 19, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Moderate Independents

One of the groups that can decide an election are those right in the middle, people who are both moderate and who are self-identified as Independent. During a general election, it is this group of voters who candidates try to persuade and, at the moment, this group is not happy. They have the same low opinion of Congress (93% negative rating versus 94% among all adults), President Obama in general (67% negative versus 68% among all adults) and his handling of the economy (78% negative versus 79% among all adults). But, despite their negative opinions this groups is still very divided when it comes to voting for the President as 46% say they are unlikely to vote for him if the election were held today while 44% are likely to vote for him with 10% not at all sure.

Looking at the economy overall, over half of moderate Independents (54%) say in the coming year the economy will stay the same while 20% believe it will improve and 25% believe it will get worse. Three in five rate both the economic conditions (61%) and the current job market (60%) in their region as bad.

Conservative Tea Party Supporters

Another group that will have an impact on the upcoming election is Tea Party supporters who also say they are Conservative. As might be expected, these individuals have a very negative opinion of the job President Obama is doing in general (99% negative) and on the economy (95% negative) but have a slightly better opinion of how Congress is doing (12% positive versus 6% among all adults). Two-thirds of Conservative Tea Party supporters (67%) believe the economy will get worse in the coming year while 78% rate the economic condition of their region of the country as bad. And, when it comes to the two issues (among a list of 15) that are most important to them when voting for a candidate, half (51%) say it is cutting government spending, over one-third (36%) say it is the recent Healthcare Reform Bill and 31% say it is less government regulation.

2012 Swing States

This is a list that may change as the election grows closer, but at the moment, it looks like nine states can be called "swing" states for this cycle – Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. These are the states where both President Obama and the eventual Republican candidate will focus and spend a great deal of time. Currently, two-thirds of the people in these states (68%) have a negative opinion of the overall job the President is doing, almost four in five (78%) have a negative opinion of the job the President is doing on the economy, and over nine in ten (92%) have a negative opinion of the job Congress is doing.  Half of swing state adults (51%) say if the election for president were to be held today they would be unlikely to vote for President Obama while 42% would be likely to vote for him and almost half (45%) do not think the President will be re-elected.  When it comes to issues that are most important to voting, two in five swing state adults (39%) say it is cutting government spending, almost three in ten (28%) say it is no tax increases and one-quarter (24%) say it is the recent Healthcare Reform Bill.

Looking at the economy, things are not good for the swing states. Over one-third (35%) believe the economy will get worse in the coming year while 44% expect it to stay the same. Seven in ten (71%) say the economy in their region of the country is bad and 72% say the job market in their region is bad.

2008 5% states

In the 2008 presidential election six states were decided by 5% or less – Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio. For these states, the problem is all economic. Three-quarters say both that the economic conditions (75%) and the job market (75%) in their region are bad.

So What?

So much can happen between now and the first votes in the primary election, never mind until the first votes in the general election are cast. But, as this snapshot shows, the economy is an issue impacting how some important blocs of potential voters think. If those in the swing states do not feel the economy or the job market is getting better they are very likely to take frustrations out at the ballot box. This is troubling not just for President Obama, but also for all incumbents up for re-election.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 12 and 19, 2011 among 2,462 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40805
Q1210, 1215, 1218, 1250, 705, 710, 715, 720, 860

The Harris Poll® #106, October 6, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American and European offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Press Contact:
Corporate Communications
Harris Interactive
212-539-9600
[email protected]

SOURCE Harris Interactive