A Super Bowl XLVII Forecast That Works: Team from Metro Area with Lower Jobless Rate Has 80 Percent Success Rate Over the Past 25 Years

RiseSmart analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics MSA data predicts the Ravens will defeat the Niners.

Jan 29, 2013, 10:58 ET from RiseSmart

NEW ORLEANS, Jan. 29, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- When Super Bowl 47 kicks off here at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome February 3, millions of Americans will be making predictions on the outcome. But a RiseSmart analysis shows that one of the most accurate predictors of Super Bowl success comes from the unlikeliest of sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment data.

(Photo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20130122/DA45857-INFO)

Here's the story:

WHAT: The team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower unemployment rate during the previous calendar year has won 20 of the past 25 Super Bowls – an impressive 80 percent success rate. Based on this correlation, the Baltimore Ravens should defeat the San Francisco 49ers in the Big Game. Through November, the 2012 unemployment rate for the Baltimore Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was 7.2 percent, compared to 8.2 percent for the San Francisco metropolitan area.

WHY: A case can be made that a fan base with lower unemployment is more likely to attend games, buy team gear, celebrate at sports bars and, ultimately, cheer their team on to victory. By contrast, a metro area that is struggling with high unemployment might have a subtle but insidious effect on its team's morale.

THE DATA: View a news release with a data table correlating teams and BLS jobless rates for the past 25 years, or see the data in a colorful Super Bowl infographic.

HAIR-SPLITTING NINERS FANS: Some commentators (obviously Niners fans) have come up with different stats using different unemployment measures. Our data, for all 25 years, comes from a consistent source: BLS stats for MSAs.

WHO: This analysis of employment data and Super Bowl prowess comes from RiseSmart, the leading provider of next-generation outplacement solutions. RiseSmart's founder and CEO, Sanjay Sathe, is available to discuss the Super Bowl forecast and the impact of employment on pigskin success. Says Sathe: "Never underestimate the power of having a job."

About RiseSmart
 Based in San Jose, Calif., RiseSmart is the leading provider of next-generation outplacement solutions. For more information, visit http://www.risesmart.com.

CONTACT: Stephanie Fedler, 972-850-5866, sfedler@ideagrove.com

SOURCE RiseSmart