Accurate Small-Cell Deployment Model Applied to 5G Forecasting

CAMPBELL, Calif., Dec. 6, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- While many people in the industry struggled with uncertainty in the Small Cell market, Mobile Experts was able to forecast the correct number of shipments within 4% for 2016. How did they do it?

Mobile Experts developed a model for tracking mobile traffic density in the network, and used traffic density to predict the timing and use of small cells. By collecting benchmark data from multiple operators worldwide, Mobile Experts was able to focus on the key technical area that drives them to deploy additional infrastructure, and make predictions about specific markets in terms of timing for network upgrades.   

The model compares Gbps/km²/MHz, which they have found to be an effective conversation stopper and thus shortened to GkM instead. Benchmarking with leading LTE operators has proven over the years that when mobile operators reach a level of 0.02 GkM, the economics of small cells become more attractive than macro sites for added capacity. Mobile Experts has found this to be an extremely accurate way to predict small cell deployment timing.   

"Looking to the future, we're expecting a lot of change in traffic density that will force operators to invest in new infrastructure," commented Chief Analyst Joe Madden. "Consumer trends are driving more mobile video traffic, so the level of traffic keeps increasing very rapidly. Traffic will continue to rise, but the density of traffic will slow down, as CBRS and LAA bands come into play.  We're also starting to see the network conditions which will drive the operators toward Massive MIMO and 5G at density levels , adding more LTE bandwidth and reducing traffic density per MHz."

According to their latest in a series of strategic thought leadership publications, called Expert INSIGHTs, According to Mobile Experts, massive MIMO will provide more room for growth. As m-MIMO is deployed in both LTE and 5G systems, the density of the network should be able to continue growing more than 5x its level today.

"In real-world networks, there's plenty of room for growth. Most major networks are anticipating about 50-100 MHz of new spectrum at 3.5 to 4.5 GHz, and many countries have plans for wider blocks above 20 GHz. Seoul is a good example—Korea has some of the densest networks in the world, and will be pushing the envelope of LTE saturation in 2019. The addition of 3.5 GHz and 28 GHz spectrum will dramatically reduce density of traffic, improving their network quality," remarked Chief Analyst Joe Madden.

Overall, the model has become an indispensable tool in predicting the behavior of the mobile operators.  The December 2017 Expert INSIGHT report covers updated information on GkM performance in Tokyo, Seoul, New York, San Francisco, Shanghai, London, and other key cities.  The report explains the development of the model and its historical accuracy in predicting small cell deployment, then projects the future levels of GkM based on an assumption of ongoing data traffic demand and the release of new spectrum.  Copies of the December Expert INSIGHT are available immediately for a fee of $1,500 USD. Click HERE.

About Mobile Experts Inc.:
Mobile Experts provides insightful market analysis for the mobile infrastructure and mobile handset markets.  Our analysts are true Experts, who remain focused on topics where each analyst has 20 years of experience or more.  Research topics center on technology introduction for radio frequency (RF) and communications innovation.  Recent publications focus on Backhaul, CBRS, LPWA, Big Picture IoT, C-IoT, DAS, CRAN/VRAN, Small Cells, Enterprise Mobile Infrastructure, Backhaul and Fronthaul,  5G, and more.

Contact:
Rachel Winningham
Mobile Experts Inc.
[email protected] 
+1 (408) 540-7284    
www.mobile-experts.net

SOURCE Mobile Experts

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