Ben Carson Nearly Ties with Frontrunner Trump Nationally Among Likely GOP Voters, while Jeb Bush Trails, Nationally and in Florida
SAINT LEO, Fla., Oct. 28, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson has basically tied with billionaire businessman Donald Trump as the leading presidential candidate among likely Republican voters surveyed nationally by the Saint Leo University Polling Institute.
Meanwhile on the Democratic side, likely voters nationally again put Hillary Clinton in the lead.
Carson Makes Impressive Show in Crowded National Field
Among likely Republican voters nationwide, those polled said their favored candidate was: Donald Trump (22.7 percent); retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (22.2 percent); U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, (11.1 percent); former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (8.4 percent); former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (5.8 percent); and U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas (4.0 percent).
"We're starting to see some 'Trump fatigue' setting in," said Frank Orlando, instructor of political science at Saint Leo University. "Donald Trump thrives on the media attention. With the lull between debates and his upcoming 'Saturday Night Live' appearance (November 7), the soft-spoken, 'anti-Trump' candidate Ben Carson, has emerged as a viable candidate," said Orlando.
Interestingly, Orlando noted, when support for Carson, Trump, and Fiorina are combined, 51 percent of the national likely Republicans voters support non-politicians. Orlando interpreted the collective sentiment as a signal that: "These voters would rather have people with no specific plans than people who they are afraid would let them down."
Democratic Politics Continue to Favor Clinton
Among the likely Democratic voters nationwide, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton drew 54.8 percent of the respondents' support. Since Vice President Joe Biden announced on October 21 that he will not run for president, the 15.8 percent of Democratic likely voters who favored him will likely become Clinton supporters, Orlando said. U.S. Senator from Vermont Bernie Sanders was selected by 12 percent of the likely Democratic voters.
"Hillary's still the horse in the Democratic race, and I think that [Vice President] Biden's support will now gravitate to her," stated Saint Leo's Orlando. "It (Biden's support) won't jump to Bernie Sanders as he's more of an anti-establishment candidate. At the same time, Sanders needs to be more aggressive in his attack on Clinton and increase his rhetoric."
Florida Results Surprising
Among Florida likely Republican voters, Donald Trump is first (25.8 percent). Trump was followed in Florida by Senator Rubio (21.5 percent); then former Governor Jeb Bush (15.3 percent); and then Carson (14.7 percent). The margin of error was 7 percentage points, based on a sample of 163 respondents.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead (50.9 percent). Senator Sanders pulled 13.3 percent. (Vice President Biden had 15.2 percent.) The margin of error for this question was plus or minus 7 percentage points, based on a sample of 165 likely Democratic voters in the state.
SOURCE Saint Leo University Polling Institute
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