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Bertelsmann Foundation: Alemania se beneficia del euro
  • USA - Français


News provided by

Bertelsmann Stiftung

Apr 30, 2013, 05:20 ET

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GÜTERSLOH, Alemania, April 30, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --

La divisa comunitaria asegura el crecimiento, riqueza y empleo - los beneficios se mantienen incluso en caso de pérdida de valor debido a los recortes de la deuda en los estados con crisis en el sur de Europa

Alemania se beneficia de forma considerable del euro, tal y como demuestra el actual modelo de cálculo de Prognos AG, redactado bajo demanda de la alemana   Bertelsmann Foundation. "La membresía alemana en la unión de divisas reduce los costes del comercio internacional, protegiendo frente a las fuertes fluctuaciones del tipo de cambio", explicó Aart De Geus, presidente y consejero delegado de la Bertelsmann Foundation, durante la rueda de prensa anual de la fundación celebrada en Gütersloh.

Incluso si Alemania perdiera la mayor parte de sus demandas debido a las medidas de rescate del euro diferentes, los beneficios económicos de la unión de divisas serían más equilibrados que las pérdidas". Un retorno al deutschmark podría causar un daño económico considerable. Los alemanes perderían ingresos y puestos de trabajo", afirmó De Geus.

El estudio ha demostrado lo siguiente: Sin el euro, el crecimiento real del producto interior bruto (PIB) en Alemania sería más bajo, en torno a un punto porcentual anual de un 0,5%. Añadiéndose a los beneficios de crecimiento de la membresía del euro los resultados son de un beneficio de cerca 1.200 billones de euros entre 2013 y 2025. Esto se corresponde con cerca de la mitad del rendimiento económico alemán completo en el año 2012.

El euro también es bueno para los ciudadanos: Los ingresos medios extra por ciudadano entre los años 2013 y 2025 serán de unos 1.100 euros al año. El escenario del deutschmark podría deteriorar también la situación dentro del mercado laboral. La reducción del crecimiento del producto interior bruto en 0,5% puntos porcentuales podría causar unas pérdidas de unos 200.000 puestos de trabajo.

Los beneficios que consigue Alemania de su membresía en el euro están siempre presentes si se pierden las demandas considerables en los próximos años en torno a los cuatro países del sur de Europa en crisis, Grecia, Portugal, España e Italia. Los cálculos adicionales se basaron en unas pérdidas de un 60% en las demandas por país. La deuda pública superior en este caso o la demanda de consulta fiscal aumentada podría amortiguar la dinámica económica, pero los efectos seguirían con fronteras más estrechas.

"Una Europa sin el euro se caería en pedazos también políticamente, y sería un jugador perdedor en la competición internacional", explicó Aart De Geus. "Para asegurar la prosperidad y estabilidad económica, finalmente necesitamos eliminar los déficit de eficacia y legitimación, lo que significa que la unión de divisas actual necesita desarrollarse más como unión económica, social y política. Solo así la divisa común asegurará el crecimiento, riqueza y empleo en toda Europa".

Para más preguntas contacte con: Doctor Thieß Petersen    
Teléfono: +49(0)52-41-81-81218
E-mail: [email protected]


Para más información online visite: http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de

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