Bitcoin Rally to Two-Month High Signals Shift in Crypto Derivatives Sentiment, Bybit and Block Scholes Find

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Jan 15, 2026, 10:00 ET

DUBAI, UAE, Jan. 15, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released the latest Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics report showing that Bitcoin's rise to a two-month high is prompting early signs of a shift in derivatives market sentiment.

Key findings:

Bitcoin's breakout to a two-month high has coincided with rising perpetual futures open interest and higher funding rates for several altcoins.
Short-dated Bitcoin and Ether options have moved toward a neutral volatility skew after a prolonged bearish bias.
Futures term structures for Bitcoin and Ether have clustered at similar levels, indicating consistent pricing of risk across maturities.

The analysis finds that Bitcoin's recent move into the upper $90,000 range, following more than a month of rangebound trading, has had a notable impact across futures and options markets. Open interest in perpetual futures has increased across major digital assets, signaling new long positions as traders position for potential continuation of the rally. Funding rates for select altcoins have also moved higher, reflecting improved risk appetite.

Options markets are showing a parallel adjustment. Volatility smiles for short-dated Bitcoin and Ether options have shifted toward a neutral skew after previously pricing in a bearish put premium. Despite the sharp spot price move, implied volatility has remained relatively subdued, suggesting markets are recalibrating expectations rather than anticipating immediate turbulence.

"Cryptos have braved past geopolitical shockers at the onset of 2026, appearing intent on catching up with other risk assets," said Han Tan, Chief market analyst at Bybit Learn. "Recent gains bode well for our 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000, though the road ahead will likely be marked by turbulence as geopolitical and U.S. monetary policy risks cloud the macro outlook."

Spot market dynamics continue to support prices. Year-to-date inflows into Bitcoin and Ether spot exchange-traded funds remain positive, reinforcing demand during the latest breakout. Ether has also benefited from on-chain factors, with roughly 30 percent of its circulating supply now staked, tightening available supply.

The report highlights the $94,000 to $96,000 price region as a key trigger for sentiment changes in derivatives markets. A similar move earlier this month briefly pushed options skews to neutral before reversing when prices failed to hold. The latest breakout has again shifted positioning, though analysts note that a sustained move above these levels may be required for a more decisively bullish options skew to emerge.

The full Bybit x Block Scholes report provides detailed analysis of spot, futures, and options markets and is available for download.

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About Bybit

Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 80 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.

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