Bulls on the Horizon? S&P Capital IQ Sees Potential For Bluer Skies For Markets and Investors in 2012, Says Latest Lookout Report

NEW YORK, Dec. 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- In the most recent issue of the Lookout Report -- a biweekly research note from S&P Capital IQ's Global Market Intelligence unit that draws upon the firm's unique analytical assets -- analysts note that recent improving trends in U.S. labor market conditions and relative stability in the S&P Capital IQ 2012 earnings consensus could very well present investors with an economic and market scenario for the coming year that is considerably more bullish than what investors currently foresee.  Moreover, despite some negative economic factors, the S&P 500 Index is expected to report respectable earnings growth of 8.30% in 2012, suggesting analysts are still anticipating slow-to-moderate growth in the U.S. in the year ahead.

This information  is published in the Lookout Report for December 16, 2011. The report, which also features market insights and commentary on corporate earnings, leveraged loan trends, commodity index activity and more, is available here.

Following are additional highlights in this issue of the Lookout Report:

S&P Index Commentary: A Review Of S&P 500 Index Dividend Aristocrats
S&P Indices added 10 issues to the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats list, which consists of companies that have increased their actual dividend payments for at least 25 years in a row. Three of the 10 -- Franklin Resources, HCP Inc., and T. Rowe Price Group -- are financials firms.

Leveraged Commentary And Data: Leveraged Loan Volume Jumps In 2011; Outlook For 2012 Is Hazy
2011 was a fairly average year for the leveraged loan market. Volume through Dec. 12 totaled $371 billion, including $232 billion of institutional loans. Including a few deals expected over the sleepy final weeks of the year, 2011 volume will likely total about $380 billion, with $240 billion in institutional loans.

R2P Corporate Bond Monitor
After the Federal Reserve's report Tuesday, risk-reward profiles on the fixed-income market -- as measured by average Risk-to-Price (R2P) scores -- have stabilized across the board in December, from Nov. 30 to Dec. 13. Scores deteriorated by 1% overall in the U.S., while scores on European bonds remained unchanged.

Market Derived Signal Commentary: Are Technology Companies' CDS Spreads In For Improvement?
Technology companies have been making news over the past week, as the two largest U.S. semiconductor manufacturers issued fourth-quarter warnings, while a third company forecast a better-than-expected end to 2011. The credit market's reaction to this spate of news was muted. Over the past week, credit default swap (CDS) spreads for the information technology sector widened 5.6% to an average of 356 basis points (bps), according to CMA DataVision.

Capital Market Commentary: Historical IPO Trends Suggest The Equity Market Could Slow At The End Of The Year
While many bankers and issuers may be eagerly anticipating year-end initial public offerings (IPOs), historical trends suggest the response by the overall equity market may be less enthusiastic. During the most active days for IPO pricings on major U.S. exchanges this year, equity prices -- as measured by the S&P 500 Index -- tended to retreat, according to S&P Capital IQ data.

S&P Index Commodity Commentary: Hangover Time
Commodity prices have declined sharply in December under the substantial weight of equity market weakness and U.S. dollar strength. The near mirror image decline of December 2011 compared with the December 2010 rally has ominous indications for economic prospects early in 2012.

The Lookout Report provides cross-market and cross-asset class views of current data and forward-looking insights from leading S&P market specialists.  Key areas of focus include aggregated corporate earnings, market and credit risk evaluation, capital markets activity, index investing and proprietary data and analytics.  The report previews the issues most likely to drive market expectations or cause a market disturbance in the weeks ahead.   It can be accessed on S&P.com, the S&P Global Credit Portal and Capital IQ.

About S&P Capital IQ
S&P Capital IQ, a brand of the McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics to institutional investors, investment advisors and wealth managers around the world. We provide a broad suite of capabilities designed to help track performance, generate alpha, identify new trading and investment ideas, and perform risk analysis and mitigation strategies. Through leading desktop solutions such as Capital IQ, Global Credit Portal and MarketScope Advisor desktops; enterprise solutions such as S&P Securities Evaluations, Global Data Solutions, and Compustat; and research offerings including Leveraged Commentary & Data, Global Market Intelligence, and company and funds research, S&P Capital IQ sharpens financial intelligence into the wisdom today's investors need.

SOURCE S&P Capital IQ