BEVERLY HILLS, Calif., Jan. 29, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Without new treatment options and greater utilization of current cholesterol lowering therapies, the mortality rate from cardiovascular disease (CVD) could increase 62 percent by 2040, according to a study published in the January issue of Clinical Cardiology.
While deaths due to CVD have declined over the past 50 years due to improved management of certain risk factors and the development of new therapies, a combination of shifting demographics, advanced aging, increased obesity, and higher diabetes rates threaten to reverse these gains. Moreover, with an increase in young adults smoking, and treatment for other diseases demanding attention and funding, the prevalence of CVD is expected to increase without additional reductions in risk factors, increased access and adherence to current preventative therapeutics, and the development of new therapies.
In the study "Protecting the gains: What changes are needed to prevent a reversal of the downward cardiovascular disease mortality trend?", Dr. Peter P. Toth, MD, PhD, Director of Preventative Cardiology at CGH Medical Center and Dr. Michael S. Broder, MD, MSHS, Partnership for Health Analytic Research (PHAR, LLC) predicted the number of people living with CVD would double from 2015 to 2040 and deaths from CVD would increase from 462,122 to 916,014 – or 355 deaths per 100,000 lives – if there is no reduction in risk factors like smoking or obesity.
With changes in certain risk factors, PHAR's modeling showed the increase would be less drastic (41 percent), but CVD mortality would still rise. The introduction of cholesterol lowering therapies that could reduce average cholesterol by a further 20 percent would decrease the mortality rate an additional 16 percent to 260 deaths per 100,000 lives. More effective interventions that lower cholesterol by 40 percent would reduce the adjusted risk factor rate 32 percent, to 210 deaths per 100,000 lives. The study's authors believe the recent declines in CVD mortality rates can continue if the development of therapeutic alternatives is prioritized and these therapies are used effectively in the right patient populations.
"These findings are alarming, but necessary to bring attention to a major cause of mortality in the US today," said Dr. Toth. "However, with appropriate intervention, the trajectory of this can be meaningfully improved."
Other recent research found similar results, that that there will be a rise in the rates of CVD, and that mortality in the absence of innovations would increase.
"Statins were a game-changer in the 70s, but with baby-boomers aging and Americans getting more and more overweight, deaths from heart disease are going to climb unless we do something dramatic about it," said Dr. Broder.
Founded in 2004, Partnership for Health Analytic Research (PHAR, LLC) is a clinically-focused health services research consultancy. PHAR combines rigorous methodology with extensive clinical expertise to conduct high quality health economics and outcomes research for life sciences companies, specialty societies, and not-for-profit health advocacy groups. For more information about PHAR, LLC, visit the company's website at www.pharllc.com.
Dr. Michael S. Broder is available for interviews.
SOURCE PHAR, LLC