Central & Eastern Europe Smart Metering Market To Reach $10.3 billion by 2023
WASHINGTON, April 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Several Central & Eastern Europe (CEE) countries represent compelling opportunities for smart grid investments but are often overshadowed by their Western European neighbors. Smart meter spending alone in the CEE region will reach $10.3 billion cumulatively by 2023, with almost all electric utilities completing full smart meter deployments over that time period. A new study released today by Northeast Group, LLC – Central & Eastern Europe Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2013-2023) – forecasts the growth of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), or smart metering, in ten CEE countries over the next decade. The study includes details on the already announced smart meter projects and the associated vendors, targets and deadlines set at the national and European Union (EU) level, and a forecast of annual deployment statistics across all ten countries.
"Central & Eastern Europe is the most advanced region among emerging market countries for smart grid and smart meter deployments," according to Northeast Group. "All ten countries covered in this study are expected to adopt EU smart meter regulations over the course of this decade, and some already have extensive smart grid roadmaps in place. At the same time, with lower electricity demand levels compared with Western Europe, it's not clear if all CEE countries will meet the EU targets. Each country's unique energy sector drivers are determining whether or not it will meet prescribed targets."
The European Union has mandated that all member states deploy smart meters to 80% of customers by 2020, if economically feasible. All EU countries were meant to complete smart metering cost-benefit analyses by September 2012, but fewer than half of the ten CEE countries have done so. Most CEE countries claim they intend to meet the EU timelines, but have not yet officially transposed EU regulations into their national legislation.
"The EU regulations are still the driving force in the region," continued Northeast Group. "The EU provides guidelines on setting roadmaps, creating interoperability standards, ensuring data protection, and establishing costs and benefits for all stakeholders. These are advantages that many countries in other emerging market regions do not enjoy. Some CEE countries may miss the EU 2020 deadline, but almost all CEE countries will have a nearly full deployment of smart meters by the end of our forecast period in 2023."
Indeed, several utilities across Central & Eastern Europe already have plans in place. Estonia plans to deploy smart meters to 100% of its customers by 2017, while utilities in Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, and Slovenia also have plans for full smart meter rollouts. In countries where cost-benefit analyses have been conducted, the result has almost always been positive. Once more of these analyses are completed, the EU mandate will begin compelling stronger regulatory action at the national level. This is expected within the next year or two.
"It is not surprising that most CEE countries find net positive benefits from their cost-benefit analyses," added Northeast Group. "Electricity prices are among the highest in the world, so customers can benefit from having greater control over their electricity consumption. Meanwhile, distribution loss rates are much higher and the duration of power outages in the CEE region are much longer compared with Western Europe, so utilities stand to gain from metering upgrades. Additionally, as these countries add greater percentages of renewable sources of energy, grid upgrades are necessary to handle the intermittency of these resources."
The quickly developing market has attracted a number of both local and international vendors. Northeast Group's study includes detailed assessment of vendors based in Central & Eastern Europe, as well as the regional market activity of the leading Western European, American, and Asian vendors.
Northeast Group's study forecasts five sub-segments of the AMI market, including meter hardware, communications, IT, professional services, and installation costs for ten countries across the CEE region. Countries covered include:
- Bulgaria;
- Czech Republic;
- Estonia;
- Hungary;
- Latvia;
- Lithuania;
- Poland;
- Romania;
- Slovakia;
- Slovenia.
The study also includes a discussion of recent smart grid activity and potential in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. In addition to AMI market forecasts, the study surveys activity in the other smart grid segments of distribution automation, wide area measurement, and home energy management.
Northeast Group's Central & Eastern Europe Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2013 – 2023) study is approximately 180 pages in length with over 130 tables, charts and graphics. It includes a 14-page stand-alone executive summary for a quick synthesis, full regional and country-by-country forecasts including analysis of regulatory frameworks, drivers, and utility and vendor activity. The study also includes an extensive appendix including full EU regulations, examples of CEE cost-benefit analyses, details on electric vehicle and renewable energy metrics, and other dynamics driving the smart grid market in the region. To order a copy of the study, please visit the website at: www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: [email protected]
ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries.
Key questions answered in this study:
- How large will the smart meter market in Central & Eastern Europe become over the next decade?
- What are the results of cost-benefit analyses conducted to-date in CEE countries?
- Which utilities already have large-scale smart meter rollouts planned and when will they be complete?
- Which countries have the most complete incentives for electric vehicles and distributed generation?
- Who are the local vendors already active in the CEE smart grid market?
Unique characteristics of this study:
- Full details of industry structure, regulatory framework, market dynamics, and utility activity for ten Central & Eastern European countries;
- Section detailing size, partners, and activity of smart grid vendors based in the CEE region;
- Full forecasts and datasets of five AMI market segments for ten CEE countries (2013-2023);
- Comprehensive comparison of smart grid indicators throughout emerging markets;
- Detailed analysis of multiple smart grid drivers including business cases built on distribution loss reduction, renewable energy incentives, and electric vehicle metrics.
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Table of Contents |
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i. Executive Summary |
1 | |
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ii. Methodology |
15 | |
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1. Introduction |
17 | |
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1.1 What is smart grid? |
17 | |
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1.2 Smart grid's role in regional interconnection |
23 | |
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1.3 How has smart grid been used elsewhere in the world? |
25 | |
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2. Central & Eastern Europe smart grid snapshot |
30 | |
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2.1 The region in comparison |
31 | |
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2.2 Regional drivers |
33 | |
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2.3 Regional challenges |
41 | |
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2.4 Most recent developments |
43 | |
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3. Regional market forecast |
45 | |
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4. Poland |
50 | |
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4.1 Electricity industry structure |
52 | |
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4.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
54 | |
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4.3 Market forecast |
57 | |
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4.4 Utility activity |
59 | |
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5. Estonia |
62 | |
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5.1 Electricity industry structure |
64 | |
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5.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
65 | |
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5.3 Market forecast |
68 | |
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5.4 Utility activity |
70 | |
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6. Slovenia |
71 | |
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6.1 Electricity industry structure |
73 | |
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6.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
74 | |
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6.3 Market forecast |
76 | |
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6.4 Utility activity |
78 | |
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7. Romania |
79 | |
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7.1 Electricity industry structure |
81 | |
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7.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
82 | |
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7.3 Market forecast |
84 | |
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7.4 Utility activity |
86 | |
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8. Hungary |
88 | |
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8.1 Electricity industry structure |
90 | |
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8.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
91 | |
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8.3 Market forecast |
93 | |
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8.4 Utility activity |
96 | |
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9. Czech Republic |
97 | |
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9.1 Electricity industry structure |
99 | |
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9.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
100 | |
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9.3 Market forecast |
102 | |
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9.4 Utility activity |
104 | |
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10. Slovakia |
106 | |
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10.1 Electricity industry structure |
108 | |
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10.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
110 | |
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10.3 Market forecast |
111 | |
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10.4 Utility activity |
113 | |
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11. Bulgaria |
115 | |
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11.1 Electricity industry structure |
117 | |
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11.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
118 | |
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11.3 Market forecast |
120 | |
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11.4 Utility activity |
121 | |
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12. Latvia |
123 | |
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12.1 Electricity industry structure |
125 | |
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12.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
126 | |
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12.3 Market forecast |
127 | |
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12.4 Utility activity |
129 | |
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13. Lithuania |
130 | |
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13.1 Electricity industry structure |
132 | |
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13.2 Smart metering regulatory environment |
133 | |
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13.3 Market forecast |
135 | |
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13.4 Utility activity |
136 | |
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14. The rest of the region |
137 | |
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15. Vendor activity |
142 | |
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15.1 CEE-based vendors |
142 | |
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15.2 International vendors active in smart grid in Central & Eastern Europe |
149 | |
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16. Conclusion |
154 | |
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17. Appendix |
155 | |
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17.1 List of companies covered in this report |
155 | |
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17.2 List of acronyms |
156 | |
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17.3 Renewable energy incentives in CEE |
157 | |
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17.4 Electric vehicle metrics in CEE |
159 | |
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17.5 Payback on smart metering from loss reduction in CEE |
160 | |
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17.6 Cost-benefit analysis examples in CEE |
162 | |
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17.7 Select EU smart grid regulations |
164 | |
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List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables |
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Central & Eastern Europe smart grid: key takeaways |
3 |
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EU smart grid-related regulations |
4 |
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20-20-20 targets for CEE countries |
4 |
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Smart grid drivers and barriers in Central & Eastern Europe |
5 |
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Renewable energy potential and incentives in CEE |
6 |
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Distribution losses and power outages in CEE |
6 |
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Smart metering cost-benefit analyses completed in CEE |
7 |
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Announced smart meter deployment plans in CEE |
7 |
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Leading smart metering vendors in CEE |
8 |
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CEE-based smart grid vendors |
8 |
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AMI forecast by country |
9 |
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CEE smart meter penetration rate |
9 |
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AMI forecast data by country |
10 |
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Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain |
17 |
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Figure 1.2: Smart grid model |
18 |
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Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Central & Eastern Europe |
20 |
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Table 1.2: Electric vehicle subsidies in CEE |
21 |
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Table 1.3: Demand response options |
22 |
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Figure 1.3: Transmission interconnections in CEE |
24 |
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Figure 1.4: Smart grid activity in emerging markets |
26 |
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Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential |
31 |
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Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption |
32 |
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Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions |
32 |
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Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth |
33 |
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Box 2.1: EU Directive 2009/EC/72 |
34 |
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Figure 2.5: CEE compliance with EU smart meter regulations |
35 |
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Table 2.1: European Commission recommendations for smart meter requirements |
36 |
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Figure 2.6: Electricity prices in emerging markets |
36 |
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Figure 2.7: Electricity prices in the EU |
37 |
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Table 2.2: 20-20-20 targets for CEE countries |
37 |
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Figure 2.8: Renewable sources of energy in CEE |
38 |
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Figure 2.9: Distribution losses in CEE |
39 |
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Figure 2.10: Annual minutes lost to power outages |
39 |
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Table 2.11 Smart grid market drivers and barriers in CEE |
40 |
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Figure 2.12: Average annual GDP growth in CEE |
41 |
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Figure 2.13: Status of planned smart meter rollouts in CEE |
43 |
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Figure 3.1: Timeline of smart grid developments in CEE |
45 |
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Figure 3.2: AMI forecast by country |
46 |
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Table 3.1: AMI forecast data by country |
46 |
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Figure 3.3: CEE smart meter penetration rate |
47 |
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Figure 3.4: Annual AMI deployments in CEE |
47 |
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Figure 3.5: Planned, forecasted, and targeted smart meter deployments in CEE |
47 |
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Figure 3.6: AMI cost breakdown |
48 |
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Figure 3.7 Per-endpoint smart meter cost estimates |
48 |
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Figure 3.8: AMI forecast by segment |
49 |
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Figure 3.9: AMI forecast data by segment |
49 |
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Table 4.1: Poland key data |
50 |
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Figure 4.1: Poland AMI penetration rate |
50 |
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Table 4.2: Smart grid indicators in Poland |
51 |
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Figure 4.2: New and decommissioned generation in Poland |
52 |
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Box 4.1: Political risk in Poland |
53 |
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Table 4.3: Poland's 2011 smart grid roadmap |
55 |
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Figure 4.3: Poland AMI forecast |
58 |
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Table 4.4: Poland AMI forecast data |
58 |
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Table 4.5: Smart meter deployments in Polish utilities |
59 |
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Figure 4.4: Energa's planned deployments |
60 |
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Table 5.1: Estonia key data |
62 |
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Figure 5.1: Estonia AMI penetration rate |
62 |
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Table 5.2: Smart grid indicators in Estonia |
63 |
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Box 5.1: Political risk in Estonia |
65 |
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Figure 5.3: Estonia's E-mobility operating model |
67 |
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Figure 5.2: Estonia AMI forecast |
69 |
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Table 5.3: Estonia AMI forecast data |
69 |
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Table 6.1: Slovenia key data |
71 |
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Figure 6.1: Slovenia AMI penetration rate |
71 |
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Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovenia |
72 |
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Box 6.1: Political risk in Slovenia |
74 |
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Figure 6.2: Estimated monthly power bills in CEE |
76 |
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Figure 6.3: Slovenia AMI forecast |
77 |
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Table 6.3: Slovenia AMI forecast data |
77 |
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Table 7.1: Romania key data |
79 |
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Figure 7.1: Romania AMI penetration rate |
79 |
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Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Romania |
80 |
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Box 7.1: Political risk in Romania |
82 |
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Table 7.3: Romania's smart grid roadmap |
83 |
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Figure 7.2: Romania AMI forecast |
84 |
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Table 7.4: Romania AMI forecast data |
85 |
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Figure 7.3: Enel AMI deployments in Romania |
86 |
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Table 8.1: Hungary key data |
88 |
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Figure 8.1: Hungary AMI penetration rate |
88 |
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Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Hungary |
89 |
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Box 8.1: Political risk in Hungary |
91 |
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Figure 8.2: Hungary's smart meter deployment plan |
92 |
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Table 8.3: Modified regulations for Hungary's smart meter rollout |
93 |
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Figure 8.3: Public support for smart metering in Hungary |
94 |
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Figure 8.4: Hungary AMI forecast |
95 |
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Table 8.4: Hungary AMI forecast data |
95 |
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Table 9.1: Czech Republic key data |
97 |
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Figure 9.1: Czech Republic AMI penetration rate |
97 |
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Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Czech Republic |
98 |
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Box 9.1: Political risk in Czech Republic |
100 |
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Table 9.3: Wind and solar feed-in tariffs in CEE |
101 |
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Figure 9.2: Planned renewable energy development in the Czech Republic |
102 |
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Figure 9.3: Czech Republic AMI forecast |
103 |
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Table 9.3: Czech Republic AMI forecast data |
103 |
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Table 10.1: Slovakia key data |
106 |
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Figure 10.1: Slovakia AMI penetration rate |
106 |
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Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in Slovakia |
107 |
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Box 10.1: Political risk in Slovakia |
109 |
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Figure 10.2: Slovakia AMI forecast |
112 |
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Table 10.3: Slovakia AMI forecast data |
112 |
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Figure 10.3: Slovakia's positive smart metering cost-benefit analysis |
113 |
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Table 11.1: Bulgaria key data |
115 |
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Figure 11.1: Bulgaria AMI penetration rate |
115 |
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Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Bulgaria |
116 |
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Box 11.1: Political risk in Bulgaria |
118 |
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Table 11.3: Ease of business rankings |
119 |
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Figure 1.2: Bulgaria AMI forecast |
120 |
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Table 11.3: Bulgaria AMI forecast data |
121 |
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Table 12.1: Latvia key data |
123 |
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Figure 12.1: Latvia AMI penetration rate |
123 |
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Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Latvia |
124 |
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Box 12.1: Political risk in Latvia |
126 |
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Figure 12.2: Latvia AMI forecast |
128 |
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Table 12.3: Latvia AMI forecast data |
128 |
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Table 13.1: Lithuania key data |
130 |
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Figure 13.1: Lithuania AMI penetration rate |
130 |
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Table 13.2: Smart grid indicators in Lithuania |
131 |
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Box 13.1: Political risk in Lithuania |
133 |
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Figure 13.2: Renewable energy goals in Lithuania |
134 |
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Figure 13.3: Lithuania AMI forecast |
135 |
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Table 13.3: Lithuania AMI forecast data |
135 |
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Table 14.1: Key indicators from other CEE countries |
137 |
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Table 14.1: EBRD smart grid loans to former Yugoslav countries |
139 |
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Figure 15.1: Leading smart grid vendors in CEE |
142 |
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Figure 15.2: Leading emerging market-based smart grid vendors |
143 |
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Figure 15.3: Cities with leading smart grid vendors in CEE |
144 |
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Figure 15.4: Number of CEE-based vendors by size and segment |
145 |
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Table 15.1: Additional smart grid vendors based in CEE |
149 |
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Table 16.1: Next steps and necessary actions |
154 |
SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC
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