China races ahead in EV transition as Europe recalibrates and US stalls: EY analysis

• China's plug-in hybrid boom to push new energy vehicle (NEV) share toward 50% by 2025
• US EV adoption timeline slips to 2039 amid policy delays, high costs, and charging gaps
• Europe's EV sales to surpass petrol and diesel by 2028, crossing 50% by 2032 under tightening emissions rules

LONDON, Sept. 9, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- China is pulling ahead in the global shift to electric vehicles (EVs), with Europe adjusting its strategy and the US facing headwinds, according to the latest EY Mobility Lens Forecaster. This AI-powered model projects light vehicle sales through 2050 across China, Europe, and the US.

Across these three markets, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales are expected to exceed 50% by 2034, marking a pivotal moment. Meanwhile, hybrids and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will maintain a 30%+ share through 2036, underscoring their role as a key bridge to full electrification.

Constantin M. Gall, EY Global Aerospace, Defense & Mobility Leader, says:

"The EV transition is advancing—but unevenly. The US faces policy uncertainty, high costs, and infrastructure gaps. Europe is on a steady recovery path under strict emissions targets. China benefits from stable policy and a robust EV ecosystem. Hybrid technologies are proving essential in bridging the gap to full electrification."

China: Full speed ahead

The EY Forecaster projects BEVs will make up over 50% of China's light vehicle sales by 2033, driven by lower costs and supportive policies like the new VII vehicle emission standards. NEVs (BEVs + PHEVs) are expected to hit 50% by 2025 and surge past 90% by 2034.

Even as China's share of global BEV sales dips from 70% today to 54% by 2050, it will remain a dominant force in global EV growth.

US: Slowed by policy and cost

The EY Forecaster predicts a short-term spike in US EV sales is expected in 2025 as buyers rush to claim tax credits before they expire in September. But with incentives ending, new import tariffs, and legislative uncertainty—including the potential impact of "the One Big Beautiful Bill"—growth is likely to slow.

As a result, the US is now projected to reach 50% BEV adoption by 2039, five years later than previously forecast. Hybrids will remain a key option, peaking at 34% of sales by 2034.

Europe: Rebounding after 2027

The EY Forecaster suggests that in Europe, economic pressures, reduced incentives, and softer emissions penalties will dampen BEV growth through 2027. But stricter CO₂ limits and more affordable models are expected to drive a rebound, with BEVs surpassing 50% market share by 2032. Until then, hybrids—including PHEVs—will remain a cost-effective alternative, outselling BEVs until 2030.

Constantin says: "The near- to mid-term future will feature a diverse mix of powertrains, shaped by regulatory shifts, tariffs, and evolving consumer behaviour. What's clear is that e-mobility will remain central to the future of transportation."

SOURCE EY