China's NTN and D2C Market Set for Rapid Expansion Amid Mega-Constellation Plans
NEW YORK, Sept. 23, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The country's space infrastructure is expanding rapidly, supported by commercial and private enterprises, as well as technological advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), analytics, quantum computing, and 6G research. These developments are tightly integrated with China's ambitious plans to deliver next-generation connectivity solutions. According to global intelligence firm ABI Research, China's Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) for satellite D2C subscription services could reach 30 million users by 2030, driven by the launch of new major LEO networks.
"What we're seeing are opportunities in China's space sector across a wide range of areas, including domestic commercial expansion in private and state-backed constellations, business opportunities in downstream applications, multi-application communication networks, and partnerships in adjacent technology areas," explains Rachel Kong, Research Analyst at ABI Research. "These opportunities are strongly supported by government policies, which are a key driver in ramping up investments and funding for national initiatives. Examples include the Space Silk Road Initiative, the New Infrastructure Policy, and the Space-Ground Integrated Information Network Plan. Currently, two mega constellations, Spacesail and Guowang, are launching satellites with the aim of building networks that could potentially include tens of thousands of satellites."
Active satellites in orbit are expected to increase from over 17,000 in 2025 to over 48,000 by 2032, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.6%. Over 35% of these satellites are anticipated to come from the 'big three' Chinese Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) networks, including Honghu-3, which has not launched any satellites in orbit yet. With support from national space networks anticipated in the future, China's direct-to-cellular (smartphone) and direct-to-device (IoT) opportunities lie in its large existing base of smartphone users and proliferation of IoT devices. These value-added services will ensure users remain connected to the domestic network during outages and natural disasters while also providing coverage overseas when traveling or operating beyond China's terrestrial coverage.
"While the Chinese market shows growth potential supported by emerging mega-constellations, commercial opportunities are expected to be dominated by local players such as Spacesail, China Satellite Network Group's Guowang, and the upcoming Hongqing Technology's Honghu-3, which are largely supported by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) as the market remains largely closed to foreign space services due to ongoing national security and regulatory requirements," said Kong. "As more private and commercial players emerge in the market, we'll be expecting to see higher levels of investments, competition, and collaboration in the space sector."
These findings are from ABI Research's China's Space Market and NTN Frontier: Company Profiles & Market Insights report, part of the company's Space Technologies and Innovation research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.
About ABI Research
ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology solution providers and end-market companies. We serve as the bridge that seamlessly connects these two segments by providing exclusive research and expert guidance to drive successful technology implementations and deliver strategies proven to attract and retain customers.
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SOURCE ABI Research
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