Cincinnati Financial Reports Second-Quarter 2010 Results

CINCINNATI, July 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

• $27 million, or 17 cents per share, of net income for second-quarter 2010 compared with a net loss of $19 million, or 12 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2009.
• $42 million, or 26 cents per share, of operating income* compared with an operating loss of $5 million, or 3 cents per share.
• Driving the improved second-quarter results were the after-tax net effects of a $7 million rise in investment income and a $44 million decrease in the property casualty insurance underwriting loss. Underwriting results improved despite high weather-related catastrophe losses that moderated somewhat compared with second-quarter 2009 catastrophe losses while exceeding early estimates announced on June 14. Partially offsetting the catastrophe losses were higher contributions from favorable development of reserved loss estimates for insurance claims related to events that occurred prior to 2010.
• $29.13 book value per share at June 30, 2010, off approximately 2 percent from March 31, 2010, and less than 1 percent from December 31, 2009.
• 2.3 percent value creation ratio for the first six months of 2010, compared with 2.0 percent for the same period of 2009.

Insurance Operations Second-quarter Highlights

• 107.6 percent second-quarter 2010 property casualty combined ratio, improved 9.0 percentage points from one year ago.
• 4 percent increase in property casualty net written premiums, including personal lines segment growth of 7 percent.
• $106 million second-quarter 2010 property casualty new business written by agencies, within $1 million of second-quarter 2009. $11 million was contributed in the second quarter by all agencies appointed since the beginning of 2009.
• 6 cents per share contribution from life insurance to second quarter 2010 operating income, down slightly from 7 cents.

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights

• Investment income, after income tax effects, grew 8 percent in the second quarter, driven by pre-tax interest income growth of 11 percent.
• 1 percent six-month increase in fair value of invested assets plus cash at June 30, 2010, including bond portfolio growth of 6 percent and equity portfolio decline of 3 percent.
• Parent company cash and marketable securities of $1.011 billion at June 30, 2010, up 1 percent from year-end.

* The Definitions of Non-GAAP Information and Reconciliation to Comparable GAAP Measures on Page 9 defines and reconciles measures presented in this release that are not based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

** Forward-looking statements and related assumptions are subject to the risks outlined in the company's safe harbor statement (see Page 7).

Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, "Cincinnati Financial stayed focused and disciplined in the second quarter, making progress against continuing headwinds of industry, economic and literal storms. The second quarter brought reasonable premium growth, a narrower underwriting loss and solid growth of investment income over last year's low point. Our position and results as of June 30 showed that we are poised for improved results in our insurance operations, independent of the still-awaited turn in the commercial insurance marketplace. We believe that our strategic initiatives are beginning to produce benefits that will multiply over the coming months and years."

Expanded Growth Opportunities

"Net written premiums from property casualty operations rose 4 percent over the year-ago second quarter. We have looked beyond our largest book of business in standard commercial lines for additional growth opportunities, finding them by expanding personal lines and adding excess and surplus lines. These two areas together accounted for nearly three-quarters of our second-quarter written premium growth, including strong new business.

"In commercial lines, our retention rate on renewal policies continues at a very satisfactory level while we are writing less new business, including fewer larger accounts that tend to be underpriced due to competition. As planned, agents in our newer commercial states – Texas, Colorado and Wyoming – increased six-month new business premiums by $11 million, partially offsetting declines in established states. We are approximately halfway to our 2010 goal of appointing 65 new agencies that in total write more than $1 billion of annual property casualty premium with all carriers. Second-half 2010 appointments will include our first agencies in Connecticut and Oregon. As new agency relationships mature, we work to become their No. 1 or No. 2 carrier, typically writing about 10 percent of total agency premium volume within 10 years. With expansion to states outside of the Midwest and South, we also expect growth of our market share within these new agencies to support geographical diversification, reducing volatility of financial results from catastrophes."

Stabilized Ex-Catastrophe Underwriting Results

"While we are never satisfied with a combined ratio over 100 percent, the second-quarter ratio improved 9 percentage points compared with the year-ago ratio. This year's second-quarter combined ratio benefited from lower catastrophe losses and higher favorable development of reserves. Eliminating those impacts and compared with full-year 2009, the accident-year combined ratio excluding catastrophes is fairly stable in 2010 for our commercial lines segment and improved for our personal lines segment. We believe this slightly better underlying profitability is an early indication of more precise pricing and risk selection we are just beginning to experience through our limited but steadily increasing use of predictive modeling tools in both commercial and personal lines.

As of the June 30, we are using these tools to increase our ability to target high quality risks in our homeowner and workers' compensation lines of business. We will begin use for commercial and personal auto lines before year-end and will ultimately develop tools for all major commercial lines. We expect to continue gaining new advantages from our broader use of technology, including recently introduced policy administration systems that bring efficiencies for our company and our agents and online tools that give policyholders new ways to receive service. In addition to making it easier to process our policies, our new commercial lines system, now available in 21 states with nine more to launch this year, adds billing and payment options that help attract business from our agents."

Balanced Risk and Reward

"On the investment side of our operations, we continue to position our portfolio with consideration to both the challenges presented by the current low rate environment and the risks presented by potential future inflation. As bonds in our generally laddered portfolio mature over the near term, we will be challenged to replace their current yield and continue our trend of improving investment income. While our large bond portfolio more than covers our insurance reserve liabilities, we believe one of our best opportunities for long-term growth and profits is our diversified common stock portfolio of mainly blue chip, dividend-paying companies, accounting for 24 percent of invested assets at June 30.

"Overall, our capital and liquidity continued to be very strong at June 30, 2010. Our more than $1 billion of cash and marketable securities at the parent company level would be sufficient to cover all of our corporate debt while preserving our insurance subsidiaries' very strong surplus and capacity for growth.

"For the first time since April 2009, we used capital to repurchase some of our own shares during the second quarter. As in the past, we were opportunistic, buying shares for a total of $10 million at an average price well below book value. Over 8 million shares remain available per the board's authorization, which does not specify an expiration date. We tend to use repurchases to support shareholder value by offsetting dilution from stock compensation granted to our associates and directors. The second-quarter repurchases benefited book value per share slightly, although total book value fell short of year-end 2009, reflecting fluctuation of common stock values in our equity portfolio on June 30.

Stecher concluded, "Our property casualty insurance group was named in July to the Ward's 50, a list of insurers that excel at balancing financial strength with superior performance over a five-year period. Our group is one of only five insurers named to the Ward's 50 every year since inception of the list 20 years ago. With support from our loyal shareholders, agents, policyholders and associates, we will continue managing our capital to build value that endures over time."

• $26 million or 4 percent increase in second-quarter 2010 property casualty net written premiums, reflecting various targeted growth initiatives that produced increases of $14 million in personal lines and $5 million in excess and surplus lines.
• $1 million decrease in new business written by agencies in the second quarter of 2010 compared with the second quarter of 2009, including a decrease of almost $7 million for commercial lines that were nearly offset by increases of $5 million for personal lines and $1 million for excess and surplus lines.
• 1,201 agency relationships with 1,487 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at June 30, 2010, compared with 1,180 agency relationships with 1,463 reporting locations at year-end 2009. Thirty-eight new agency appointments were made during the first six months of 2010.
• 9.0 percentage-point improvement in the second-quarter GAAP combined ratio, including 2.0 points for lower catastrophe losses from weather events.
• Underwriting results benefitted from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $73 million for the second quarter of 2010 compared with $29 million for the same period of 2009, accounting for 6.1 percentage points of improvement in the GAAP combined ratio.

The following table shows incurred catastrophe losses for the second quarters of 2010 and 2009.

• $8 million or 2 percent increase in second-quarter 2010 commercial lines net written premiums. Slightly higher renewal written premiums reflected strong policy retention and included modest pricing declines estimated at approximately 1 percent for the average policy during the first half of 2010.
• Combined ratio reflected favorable prior accident year reserve development and fairly stable current accident year results. 71.4 percent ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, improved slightly from 72.5 percent full-year 2009, with new losses greater than $4 million down 0.8 percentage points.
• Underwriting expense ratio was essentially flat for the second quarter as lower expenses offset lower earned premiums.

• $14 million or 7 percent increase in second-quarter 2010 personal lines net written premiums, reflecting improved pricing and strong new business growth.
• 9.8 percentage-point second-quarter combined ratio improvement primarily from lower weather-related catastrophe losses.
• 67.0 percent ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, improved from 70.9 percent fullyear 2009 primarily due to better pricing and 1.5 percentage points positive impact from lower new losses greater than $250,000.
• Flat second-quarter underwriting expense ratio as rising earned premiums kept pace with increased expenses.

• $3 million or 8 percent increase in second-quarter 2010 earned premiums, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive, up-to-date products, personal service and policies backed by financial strength. 3 percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $72.180 billion at June 30, 2010, from $69.815 billion at yearend 2009.
• $52 million in second-quarter 2010 fixed annuity deposits received compared with $30 million in second-quarter 2009 and $181 million in full-year 2009. Cincinnati Life does not offer variable or indexed products.
• $1 million or 7 percent improvement in second-quarter 2010 pre-tax profit as revenues outgrew expenses. Higher contract holders benefits reflect increased levels of policy reserves while net death claims remained within expectations. Underwriting expenses increased primarily due to commission expense.  
• GAAP shareholders' equity for The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company increased during the second quarter of 2010 by $28 million, or 4 percent, to $729 million. Net after-tax unrealized gains were up $18 million.

• 9 percent growth in second-quarter 2010 pre-tax investment income or 8 percent growth in after-tax net investment income, driven by higher interest income on bonds.
• $131 million or 12 percent second-quarter 2010 decrease in pre-tax unrealized investment portfolio gains, including a $123 million increase for the bond portfolio, offset by a $254 million decline in unrealized gains for the equity portfolio.

• $11.357 billion in cash and invested assets at June 30, 2010, up from $11.200 billion at December 31, 2009.
• $8.339 billion bond portfolio at June 30, 2010, with an average rating of A2/A and with a 3 percent increase in fair value during the second quarter of 2010.
• $2.611 billion equity portfolio was 23.7 percent of invested assets, including $495 million in pre-tax unrealized gains at June 30, 2010, after an 8 percent decline in fair value during the second quarter of 2010.
• $3.537 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at June 30, 2010, down from $3.648 billion at December 31, 2009. Ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended June 30, 2010, of 0.8-to-1, unchanged from 0.8-to-1 for the 12 months ended December 31, 2009.
• Value creation ratio of negative 1.1 percent for the second quarter of 2010 is the sum of 1.3 percent from shareholder dividends plus negative 2.4 percent from change in book value per share.

For additional information or to register for our conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.

Safe Harbor Statement

This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 23. Although we often review or update our forward-looking statements when events warrant, we caution our readers that we undertake no obligation to do so.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

• Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
• Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
• Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
• Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
• Delays in adoption and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods that could increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
• Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
• Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company's equity portfolio and book value
• Events, such as the credit crisis, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
  • Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
  • Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
  • Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions
• Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company's ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
• Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company's premium volume
• Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
• Inability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
• Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company's relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company's opportunities for growth, such as:
  • Downgrades of the company's financial strength ratings
  • Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
  • Perceptions that the company's level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
  • Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
• Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
  • Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
  • Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
  • Increase our expenses
  • Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
  • Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
  • Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
  • Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
• Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
• Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company's future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
• Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
• Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
• Difficulties with technology or data security breaches could negatively affect our ability to conduct business and our relationships with agents, policyholders and others

Further, the company's insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.