Consumer Edge Data Reveals Tariffs, Interest Rates and Geopolitical Tensions Are Driving Major Shifts in U.S. General Merchandise Spending

Retailers Face Mounting Pricing Pressure as Consumers Adjust Spending Habits

Walmart Gains High-Income and Young Shoppers as "Trading Down" Trend Accelerates and Value Becomes a Universal Priority

Dollar Stores outperform, Warehouse Club growth slows, Target continues to struggle

NEW YORK, July 22, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Consumer Edge ("CE" or the "Company"), the leading provider of global consumer data-driven insights, today revealed significant shifts in consumer behavior and retailer performance within the general merchandise sector, as ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, continue to reshape spending patterns. The report, which analyzes data from 2024 to 2025, highlights how these challenges are shifting consumer behavior and, for specific demographics, are pushing shoppers toward more accessible, lower-cost retailers. Consumers have altered their spending behavior in response to these pressures, signaling a widespread realignment in how and where Americans shop.

Additional findings include:

• High-income and young shoppers trade down: Walmart and Dollar General saw more new customers from the $150K+ income bracket and 18 to 34 age group, signaling broader value-seeking behavior.
• Dollar stores and Amazon gain momentum: Dollar Tree and Five Below posted double-digit growth since mid-April 2025, while Amazon maintained steady high single-digit gains and remains the dominant U.S. e-commerce player.
• Warehouse club growth slows: Growth slowed from elevated levels at warehouse clubs like Costco, BJ's and Sam's Club as consumers pulled back on bulk purchases after a stock-up driven boost.
• Target's new customer mix skews older and lower-income: Unlike Walmart, Target's new customer growth is driven by lower-income shoppers, suggesting it may be losing appeal among higher-income consumers managing discretionary spend. Its once-strong "cheap chic" image may no longer resonate with younger, trend-conscious buyers.
• Geographic shifts: Dollar stores and discount chains remain dominant in rural areas with continued expansion, while urban consumers lean toward warehouse clubs and e-commerce; However, Amazon's rapid delivery rollout could blur that divide.
• Retention trends: Deep brand loyalty contributes to Amazon, Walmart and Costco's strong customer retention rates. Meanwhile, dollar stores maintain lower retention rates, as their value-driven, transactional model attracts more occasional and price-sensitive shoppers.

"Consumers are making deliberate choices as they navigate the impacts of inflation and broader economic uncertainty," said Michael Gunther, Vice President, Head of Insights, at Consumer Edge. "This shift isn't just about cutting back—it's about redefining value. We're seeing even affluent and younger shoppers prioritize convenience and cost in ways we haven't seen before."

About Consumer Edge
Consumer Edge ("CE") is a leading data and insights-as-a-service (IaaS) company specializing in the global consumer, B2B, and healthcare economies. Founded in 2009 by CEO Bill Pecoriello, CE delivers real-time, transaction-based intelligence enriched by deep industry expertise. Its solutions equip corporate and investment leaders with best-in-class tools for strategic decision-making, offering granular insights and benchmarking across products, brands, sub-industries, and industries. CE's unique capabilities turn complex data into clear, actionable insights that drive smarter, faster decisions.

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SOURCE Consumer Edge