Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Accelerate in July

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Jul 26, 2023, 13:00 ET

With supply holding at healthy levels, U.S. new-vehicle market is expected to spur a notable year-over-year sales improvement in July.
The annual new-vehicle sales pace in July is expected to finish near 15.9 million, up 2.6 million from last July's 13.3 million pace and up from June's 15.7 million level.
July's sales volume is expected to rise 15.3% from one year ago and reach 1.32 million units. This is a 4.8% decrease from June, which had one more selling day than July's 25 days.

ATLANTA, July 26, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- New-vehicle sales, when announced next week by automakers, are expected to show big gains over last year and a slight improvement over last month. The key reason for these gains continues to be the market's healthy recovery from being supply-chain constrained over the previous two years. The July seasonally adjusted sales rate, or SAAR, is expected to finish near 15.9 million. This is an increase from June's 15.7 million level and May's 15.1 million level. Sales have been showing surprising strength this year in spite of large interest rate increases, and July is expected to continue that trend.

July's sales volume is expected to show a 15.3% gain over last year's supply-limited market. However, U.S. auto sales volume is expected to decline modestly from last month, mainly due to one less selling day in July versus June.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "The return of supply – which is nearly 80% higher than one year ago – has been the key driver of sales this year. However, it isn't consumers buying all these cars and trucks; rather, it is being fueled at least in part by rental and commercial fleets. When COVID disrupted supply chains and vehicle production, OEMs focused on keeping retail channels as stocked as possible, leaving fleet demand unfulfilled. However, now that production is returning to normal, fleet sales have rebounded, and these sales are significantly lifting industry volume."

Last month, sales into large commercial, government and rental fleets, not including sales into dealer and manufacturer fleets, increased nearly 45% year over year to 217,572 units, according to an estimate from Cox Automotive. Through the first half of 2023, total new-vehicle sales in the U.S. were up more than 12%, with retail sales increasing by approximately 9% and total fleets sales jumping by more than 34%.

July 2023 Sales Forecast Highlights

The annual sales pace in July is forecast to finish near 15.9 million, up 2.6 million from last July's pace and up from June's 15.7 million level.
July's sales volume is expected to rise 15.3% from one year ago and reach 1.32 million units.
There are 25 selling days in July 2023, one less day than last month and a year ago.

July 2023 U.S New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	Jul-23	Jul-22	Jun-23	YOY%	MOM%	Jul-23	Jun-23	MOM%
Mid-Size Car	80,000	61,334	81,687	30.4 %	-2.1 %	6.1 %	5.9 %	0.2 %
Compact Car	85,000	68,391	89,138	24.3 %	-4.6 %	6.5 %	6.5 %	0.0 %
Compact SUV/Crossover	200,000	175,822	208,368	13.8 %	-4.0 %	15.2 %	15.1 %	0.1 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	185,000	166,129	195,996	11.4 %	-5.6 %	14.1 %	14.2 %	-0.1 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	210,000	191,595	221,844	9.6 %	-5.3 %	16.0 %	16.1 %	-0.1 %
Grand Total²	1,315,000	1,140,528	1,381,477	15.3 %	-4.8 %
¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data
² Total includes segments not shown

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

Slowdown in New-Vehicle Sales Expected in Coming Months
Although sales have shown strength thus far in 2023, some slowdown in the second half of this year is expected. Economic headwinds from high prices and tighter credit will likely slow the new-vehicle sales recovery. In addition, some of the pent-up demand has likely now been fulfilled. However, more incentives and more fleet will continue to provide support.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, automakers, dealers, retailers, lenders and fleet owners. The company has 25,000+ employees on five continents and a family of trusted brands that includes Autotrader^®, Dealertrack^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, NextGear Capital™ and vAuto^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on Twitter, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.