Cox Automotive Forecast: New-Vehicle Sales Return to a Slower Pace in July, With Little Upside Expected in Second Half

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Jul 28, 2025, 16:12 ET

The new-vehicle sales pace in July is expected to finish near 15.6 million, up modestly from last month's 15.3 million level and down from last July's 15.8 million pace.
Sales volume in July is forecast to reach 1.30 million, up 1.2% from last year and up 2.5% from last month.
Consumer demand for new vehicles remains steady at a slower pace, with little upside expected in the coming months.

ATLANTA, July 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- July new-vehicle sales, when announced next week, are expected to show a market back at a level equal to recent norms – stuck at the mid-15-million level. July's monthly sales pace, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is forecast by Cox Automotive to reach 15.6 million, up slightly from June's weaker 15.3 million level but down from last July's 15.8 million.

The sales pace of mid-15-million has been consistent for more than two years now, if the abnormal surge measured in March and April – when the sale pace averaged 17.5 million following threats of excessive tariffs on all imported vehicles – is removed from the data set. Sales volume is expected to increase slightly to 1.30 million, up 2.5% from last month and 1.2% from last year. However, this gain is overstated as July has 26 selling days, two more than last month and one more than last year.

According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive: "After the sales surge in March and April, the new-vehicle market has dropped right back to where it started. High prices and high interest rates are holding the market consistently below 16 million, despite improving inventory levels. And there's no reason to believe trends are improving from here. We are seeing more tariffed products replacing existing inventory, and costs are trending higher. As those higher costs trickle through to retail, sales will likely soften in the coming months unless the economic direction improves."

July 2025 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	Jul-25	Jul-24	Jun-25	YOY%	MOM%	Jul-25	Jun-25	MOM
Mid-Size Car	60,000	64,696	59,557	-7.3 %	0.7 %	4.6 %	4.7 %	-0.1 %
Compact Car	95,000	99,871	91,268	-4.9 %	4.1 %	7.3 %	7.2 %	0.1 %
Compact SUV/Crossover	220,000	205,709	216,227	6.9 %	1.7 %	16.9 %	17.0 %	-0.1 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	190,000	181,574	187,539	4.6 %	1.3 %	14.6 %	14.7 %	-0.2 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	205,000	197,066	200,315	4.0 %	2.3 %	15.7 %	15.7 %	0.0 %
Other Segments	535,000	541,108	518,622	-1.1 %	3.2 %	41.0 %	40.7 %	0.3 %
Grand Total	1,305,000	1,290,024	1,273,528	1.2 %	2.5 %

¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, vAuto^®, Dealertrack^®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch^® and FleetNet America^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $23 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.