December Car Sales on Track to Deliver a 'True Photo Finish' for Annual Record in 2016, Says Edmunds.com

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Dec 21, 2016, 12:35 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Dec. 21, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Edmunds.com, the leading car information and shopping network, forecasts that 1,629,011 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in December, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.7 million. This reflects an 18.5 percent increase from November 2016, but a 0.3 percent decrease from December 2015.

Based on this forecast, Edmunds.com projects a new annual record of 17,480,294 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in 2016. This would squeak past 2015's record sales by the slight margin of 0.03 percent – or less than 5,000 units.

"While December sales are tracking to finish lower than they did last year, dealers and automakers are hustling to squeeze out just enough units to set an annual record," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jeremy Acevedo. "It's safe to say that the final week of the year will decide whether 2016 will make automotive history. It's shaping up to be a true photo finish."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume	December 2016 Forecast	December 2015	November 2016	Change from December 2015	Change from November 2016
GM	299,286	290,230	252,644	3.1%	18.5%
Toyota	235,891	238,350	197,645	-1.0%	19.4%
Ford	233,697	237,606	196,441	-1.6%	19.0%
Fiat Chrysler	187,821	213,942	160,827	-12.2%	16.8%
Honda	147,295	150,893	122,924	-2.4%	19.8%
Nissan	134,491	139,300	115,136	-3.5%	16.8%
Hyundai/Kia	129,952	117,749	115,011	10.4%	13.0%
VW/Audi	54,611	51,355	46,790	6.3%	16.7%
Industry	1,629,011	1,634,365	1,374,133	-0.3%	18.5%

*NOTE: December 2016 had 27 selling days, December 2015 had 28 and November 2016 had 25.

One trend running in the industry's favor for a record-setting 2016 is that the final week of December is traditionally the single busiest week of the year. This year Edmunds projects that new car sales during the final week of December will be 72 percent higher than the average for the weeks earlier in the month. By comparison, the last week of any other month is just 40 percent higher than sales in earlier weeks.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.0 million vehicles in December 2016, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.2 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.6 million used cars will be sold in December 2016, for a SAAR of 38.2 million (compared to 2.8 million – or a SAAR of 37.9 million – used car sales in November).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share	December 2016 Forecast	December 2015	November 2016	Change from December 2015	Change from November 2016
GM	18.4%	17.7%	18.4%	0.7%	0.0%
Toyota	14.5%	14.6%	14.4%	-0.1%	0.1%
Ford	14.3%	14.5%	14.3%	-0.2%	0.1%
Fiat Chrysler	11.5%	13.1%	11.7%	-1.5%	-0.2%
Honda	9.0%	9.2%	8.9%	-0.2%	0.1%
Nissan	8.3%	8.5%	8.4%	-0.2%	-0.1%
Hyundai/Kia	8.0%	7.2%	8.4%	0.8%	-0.4%
VW/Audi	3.4%	3.1%	3.4%	0.2%	-0.1%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds.com
Car shopping destination Edmunds serves millions of visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise^®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Shoppers can browse not only dealer inventory, but also vehicle reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories on both Edmunds' wired site and on its acclaimed mobile apps. Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of "The World's Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive" by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions on its free Live Help Line at 1-855-782-4711 and [email protected], via text at ED411 and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich., but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTube, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google+ and Flipboard.