Eagle Hill Retention Index Falls to Lowest Level Since 2024 as Employees Grow More Likely to Leave

The latest results also show a widening generational divide. Retention outlook weakened among Baby Boomers, Gen X and Millennials, while Gen Z became more likely to stay. The sharpest quarterly declines were among Baby Boomers and Gen X, employees who often hold institutional knowledge, manage key relationships and help prepare future leaders. At the same time, employees' views of workplace culture deteriorated across nearly every workforce segment.

"Employers should pay close attention to where retention sentiment is weakening, especially among experienced employees," said Melissa Jezior, president and chief executive officer of Eagle Hill Consulting. "Disengagement among people who lead teams, mentor colleagues and carry institutional knowledge can affect an organization long before they leave. Leaders need to understand what is changing in those employees' day-to-day experience and give them compelling reasons to stay."

The Index findings come as federal labor market data show subdued hiring and little change in actual quits. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released on September 29, reported 7.1 million job openings in August, with hires little changed at 5.2 million and the quits rate unchanged at 1.9 percent. The September jobs report, released on October 2, showed employers added 29,000 jobs, down from a revised 133,000 in August.

Those figures reflect recent labor market activity, while the Index is a forward-looking measure of employees' likelihood of staying with their organizations over the next six months. A slower job market may limit employees' options today, but weakening retention sentiment suggests employers could face greater turnover as opportunities emerge. Employers should avoid mistaking limited turnover for lasting loyalty and address any disengagement that could lead valued employees to leave in the months ahead.

Key Retention Index Indicators

• Culture Indicator: Fell 3.1 points to 100.9, the largest decline among the four indicators, erasing nearly all the gains of the past year.
• Organizational Confidence Indicator: Declined 0.9 points, giving back the improvement recorded last quarter.
• Job Market Opportunity Indicator: Edged down 0.3 points, indicating relatively stable views of external opportunities overall.
• Compensation Indicator: Held steady at 104.6 after falling 5.6 points in the previous quarter.

Record Generational Divide in Retention Outlook
Gen Z's Retention Index rose one point to 112.8, while the Baby Boomer Index fell 6.3 points to 90.5. The resulting 22.3-point gap is the widest recorded between the youngest and oldest generations of workers. Gen X fell 5.3 points to 93.8, and Millennials declined 0.8 points to 106.8.

Compared with a year ago, retention sentiment is nearly 10 points lower among Baby Boomers, 7.4 points lower among Millennials and 3.4 points lower among Gen X. Gen Z's outlook has strengthened by nearly 7 points. Baby Boomers' confidence in their organizations and satisfaction with culture are at their lowest levels in two years; Gen X's culture sentiment is near a three-year low.

"A workforce-wide average can conceal significant retention risks," Jezior said. "Organizations should examine the experience of employees in critical roles and at different career stages. They also should consider how they will preserve knowledge and leadership continuity if experienced employees decide to leave."

Culture Sentiment Reverses a Year of Gains

The Culture Indicator dropped from 104.0 to 100.9. Gen X employees reported a 7-point decline in culture sentiment, Baby Boomers a 5.5-point decline and Gen Z a 3.1-point decline. Millennials were the only generation measured to report an improvement, up one point. Women reported a 3.6-point decline, compared with 1.6 points among men.

The results point to an opportunity for employers to examine employees' connections to leadership, their managers and one another, as well as whether employees feel recognized and valued.

Different Gender Views of the External Job Market

Men's Job Market Opportunity Indicator rose 8.8 points to a record-high 106.0, while women's fell 8.4 points to a record-low 93.4. The 12.6-point gap in their perceptions of outside opportunities is a historical divergence. Yet women's overall Retention Index also declined, along with their organizational confidence and culture sentiment. Fewer perceived job opportunities should not be mistaken for greater commitment to an employer.

The Eagle Hill Employee Retention Index is a first-of-a-kind market indicator that tracks worker sentiment across four proven drivers of retention: organizational confidence, culture, compensation, and job market opportunity.

1. The Organizational Confidence Indicator measures how confident employees are in their organization's future and leadership.
2. The Culture Indicator looks at employee sentiment about their workplace culture, connections, and whether they feel valued and recognized.
3. The Compensation Indicator measures how employees view their compensation, benefits, and ability to grow their compensation at their organization.
4. The Job Market Opportunity Indicator measures how employees perceive external prospects for employment and job security in the near term.

Each month, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index measure shifts in workforce retention based upon ongoing employee opinion surveys on factors related to worker intentions to change jobs. As the Employee Retention Index increases, it signals an increase in retention in the next six months. As the Employee Retention Index decreases, it signals to employers that workers are more likely to leave their jobs, and organizations can expect more turnover in the next six months.

The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index is based on a monthly omnibus survey conducted by IPSOS of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults employed full- or part-time. Quarterly indices and reports are issued based on a minimum of 1,200 aggregated responses per quarter. Respondents are polled on a range of workforce topics including organizational confidence, culture, compensation, and job market opportunity. The survey commenced in December 2022, and the most recent data was collected from –July to September 2026.

Eagle Hill Consulting LLC is an award-winning business that provides unconventional management consulting services in the areas of Organizational Performance, Business Intelligence, Technology Enablement, Talent, and Change Management. The company's expertise in delivering innovative solutions to unique challenges spans across Fortune 500 companies, government agencies, and global nonprofits. Eagle Hill has offices in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, Boston, MA, and Seattle, WA. More information is available at www.eaglehillconsulting.com.

SOURCE Eagle Hill Consulting LLC