Economic Confidence Improves but Businesses Pull Back on Spending Plans as Uncertainty Persists, AICPA and CIMA Survey Finds

• U.S. and global economic confidence improved in the third quarter, though inflation, cost pressures, and geopolitical uncertainty remain top concerns
• Hiring sentiment strengthens as inflation and cost pressures remain top concerns

NEW YORK, Sept. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Business executive sentiment improved modestly in the third quarter, with optimism toward both the U.S. and global economies rebounding from second-quarter lows. Even as confidence strengthened, executives moderated spending and expansion expectations while continuing to navigate inflation, rising costs, and geopolitical uncertainty. According to the Q3 AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, organizations remain focused on balancing growth opportunities with risk management.

The survey, which polls chief executive officers, chief financial officers, controllers, and other CPAs in executive and senior management roles across U.S. companies, found that optimism about the U.S. economy increased from 32% in Q2 to 36% in Q3. Optimism regarding the global economy also improved, rising from 19% to 24%. Confidence in respondents' own organizations remained relatively steady at 48%, compared with 49% last quarter.

While economic sentiment improved, growth plans became more measured. The percentage of organizations expecting to expand over the next 12 months declined from 54% in Q2 to 49% in Q3, while projected spending on IT, capital investments, and training and development also softened from prior-quarter levels.

"The third-quarter results reflect a business community that remains resilient despite ongoing economic headwinds," said Tom Hood, CPA, CGMA, CITP, executive vice president of business engagement and growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by AICPA and CIMA. "Confidence improved this quarter, but organizations continue to take a disciplined approach to investment and growth as they monitor inflation, costs, and broader market conditions."

Inflation once again emerged as the leading concern among business executives. Nearly eight in ten respondents said inflation poses a greater risk to their business than deflation, with labor costs, materials costs, energy prices, and interest rates cited as key inflationary pressures. Domestic political leadership and the availability of skilled personnel remained among the top organizational challenges, while cybersecurity and regulatory requirements moved higher on the list of concerns.

Hiring sentiment showed improvement during the quarter. The percentage of executives reporting they have too few employees rose from 28% in Q2 to 33% in Q3, while more organizations indicated plans to hire and relatively few reported hesitation about adding staff. A majority of respondents, 53%, said they have the right number of employees.

"The hiring data provides one of the clearest signs of resilience in this quarter's survey," Hood said. "While talent challenges persist, more organizations are moving ahead with hiring plans, suggesting continued confidence in underlying business demand."

Financial expectations improved modestly, with projected revenue growth increasing from 2.6% in Q2 to 3.1% in Q3 and profit growth rising from 1.1% to 1.5%. At the same time, executives scaled back projected increases in IT, capital, and training investments, signaling a continued focus on financial discipline.

Recession concerns moderated from the previous quarter. Forty-six percent of respondents believe the U.S. economy is either already in a recession or will enter one by the end of 2026, down from 51% in Q2, while a majority remain uncertain about whether a recession will occur.

The AICPA and CIMA survey is a forward-looking indicator that tracks hiring and business-related expectations for the next 12 months. In comparison, U.S. Department of Labor employment reports reflect hiring activity that has already occurred.

Methodology

The third-quarter AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey was conducted from August 4-25, 2026, and included 206 qualified responses from CPAs and Chartered Global Management Accountant (CGMA) designation holders in leadership positions, including chief financial officers, controllers, chief executive officers, and other senior executives.

About the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, AICPA and CIMA

The Association of International Certified Professional Accountants (the Association) advances the reputation, employability, and quality of CPAs, CGMA designation holders, and accounting and finance professionals globally. Founded by AICPA and CIMA, the Association represents hundreds of thousands of members, candidates, and registrants worldwide and advocates for public interest and business sustainability on current and emerging issues.

SOURCE AICPA & CIMA