Economic Pessimism at its Highest Point This Year

NEW YORK, Oct. 1, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The roughly one in four Americans expecting the economy to improve in the coming year is all but unchanged from June (26%, vs. 25% in June). However, pessimism continues to grow, with three in ten Americans expecting the economy to get worse in that time (30%, up from 27% in June and 21% at the beginning of the year).

• Optimism is strongest among Blacks and Hispanics, with 56% and 49%, respectively, expecting the economy to improve (vs. 22% of Whites and 19% of Asians), while Whites are especially likely to expect that it will get worse (32% vs. 13% of Blacks, 22% of Hispanics and 26% of Asians).
• Looking at the political spectrum, Democrats are split between the expectations that the economy will get better and that it will stay the same (43% each), while a plurality of Republicans believe it will get worse (46%, with 42% expecting it will stay the same).

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,368 general population U.S. adults, along with representative oversamples of 511 Hispanic Americans (interviewed in English and Spanish) and 179 Asian Americans (interviewed in English), surveyed online between September 9 and 17, 2015. Full results of the study, including data tables, can be found here.

Looking homeward, 27% of Americans expect their household financial condition to be better in the next six months while 23% expect it to be worse. Both outlooks are at their highest points in some time (since January for the positive expectations, since last year for negative ones), which means that one way or another, fewer Americans are expecting their household finances to remain the same (50%, down from 55% in June).

• Blacks are the most optimistic sub-segment of the population, with six in ten (60%) expecting their household's financial condition to be better in the next six months, compared to over a third of Hispanics (36%) and two in ten Asians (21%) and Whites (20%).
• Politically, optimism is highest among Democrats (40% vs. 20% among Independents and 15% among Republicans.

Presidential ratings 
Four in ten (41%) Americans give President Obama positive ratings on his overall job performance, while six in ten (59%) rate him negatively. While nearly identical to last month (when 40% gave him positive ratings), this month's positive ratings mark a considerable improvement over a year ago, when 30% of Americans gave him positive ratings. Findings are similar for the President's showing on the economy, with the 39% of Americans giving him positive ratings (vs. 61% rating him negatively) all but unchanged from the 40% who did the same last month but up considerably from 29% a year ago.

• Strong majorities of Blacks give the President positive ratings both overall (77%) and in regards to the economy (76%).
• A 56% majority of Hispanics rate the President positively overall, but opinions are more mixed among this group in regards to his performance on the economy (51% positive, 49% negative).
• Two-thirds of Whites and nearly six in ten Asians give the President negative ratings both overall (66% White, 59% Asian) and for his handling of the economy (66%, 58%).
• Looking along party lines, strong majorities of Democrats give the President positive ratings (73% overall, 71% economy), while considerable majorities of Independents (65%, 66%) and predictably vast majorities of Republicans (92% each) give him negative marks.

Congress and the overall state of the country 
For a couple of months there, Congress managed double digit positive ratings. Not so this month, with 9% giving Congress positive ratings and 91% rating it negatively.

• While disdain for Congress is fairly universal, Hispanics and Blacks (20% and 17%, respectively) are most likely to give the body positive marks than Asians and Whites (13% and 6%).
• Generationally, Millennials (16%) are at least twice as likely as any other generation to rate Congress positively (vs. 8% of Gen Xers, 4% of Baby Boomers and less than half a percentage point among Matures).
• All political persuasions display low opinions of Congress, though it's worth noting that Democrats are roughly twice as likely as either Republicans or Independents to give Congress positive ratings (13% Democrats vs. 6% each Republicans and Independents).

Roughly a third of Americans believe that the country is headed in the right direction (32%, down marginally from 34% last month but also up slightly from 29% a year ago), while roughly two-thirds (68%) feel the country has gotten off on the wrong track.

• Blacks (66%), Hispanics (52%) and Asians (44%) are all much more likely than Whites (27%) to believe the country is headed in the right direction while Whites are far more likely to feel things in the country have gotten off on the wrong track (73% Whites vs. 56% Asians, 48% Hispanics, 34% Blacks).
• The majority of Democrats (55%) believe things are going in the right direction, while three-fourths of Independents (75%) and nearly nine in ten Republicans (88%) feel things have gotten off on the wrong track.

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Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between September 9 and 17, 2015 among 2,368 adults (aged 18 and over). Additionally, oversamples were collected in English and Spanish among 511 Hispanic (representing Spanish-dominant, English-dominant and Bilingual profiles) respondents and in English among 179 Asian respondents. Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

The Harris Poll^® #60, October 1, 2015
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Editor, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll® 
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world.  The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public.  New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly.  For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit us at TheHarrisPoll.com.

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