Edison Issues ADR Update on Celyad

Jun 10, 2016, 07:33 ET from Edison Investment Research

LONDON, June 10, 2016 /PRNewswire/ --

Celyad can now move to the highest planned dose of 3x107 cells in the important NKR-2 Phase II CAR trial. If the next 30m cell dose is also safe (and the MTD) it will lead to two separate six patient open label studies in Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Multiple Myeloma. Further data is possible in late June. Efficacy indications in either of these could enable a series of solid tumor exploratory studies. The advantage of the NKR-T immuno-oncology approach is that it is easily transferred to multiple cancer types. FY15 accounts were as expected with year-end cash of $122m.

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The core value remains C-Cure at 45% probability of success for CHART-1, and 40% for CHART-2. The probability for CAR in AML and MM remains at 17.5%, but could rise once the last safety hurdle is cleared. The indicative valuation assumes that C-Cure is partnered after Phase III in Europe with some upfront fees; C-Cure was always assumed to be partnered for US marketing. The value estimate remains at $947m ($98 per ADR). The FY15 financial results were as expected with cash of $122m. We have updated our 2016 forecast based on the 2015 results. The 2017 forecast (Exhibit 1) does not assume any C-Cure royalties or deals and is preliminary pending the CHART-1 outcome.

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