EIA Sees Brent Near $100 for the Rest of the Year as Crude Futures Ease Again

HOUSTON, Nov. 11, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Oil Market Daily News Commentary - U.S. crude oil futures closed lower for a second straight session on Tuesday. The December NYMEX West Texas Intermediate contract settled at $86.04 a barrel, down 81 cents, or 0.93%, and the January ICE Brent contract settled at $91.49, down $1.08, or 1.17%. December WTI had settled at $104.12 on Oct. 30. Over the past two weeks, a producer, an oil sands company, a refiner, a gas processor and a tanker owner have each reported quarterly results from a different point along the oil and gas chain. Active Companies from around the markets with current developments this week include: APA Corporation (NASDAQ: APA), Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU), HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE: DINO), Kinetik Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KNTK), and International Seaways, Inc. (NYSE: INSW).

What the federal outlook says

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The agency said crude oil prices rose for a third consecutive month in October as falling global inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, constrained shipping capacity and higher transportation costs tightened supply, and that it expects the Brent crude oil spot price will remain near $100 per barrel for the remainder of this year before gradually falling to an average of $77 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027. The EIA finalized its model inputs on Nov. 5, and the forecast does not specifically account for market events after that day.

At home, the outlook said U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell to 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014, and forecast that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record 14.3 million barrels per day in 2027. The agency said it now assumes global petroleum product markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027, conditions it said will support wider crack spreads next year. For natural gas, it forecast the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.87 per million British thermal units from November through March, 16% lower than it expected last month.

On the supply side, seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) met virtually on Nov. 1 and decided to maintain September 2026 required production for December 2026, according to an OPEC press release. Their next meeting will be held on Nov. 29.

At the wellhead

APA Corporation (NASDAQ: APA) said in its third-quarter 2026 results, released Nov. 4, that U.S. oil production of 128,000 barrels per day came in 4,000 barrels above guidance through high uptime, earlier turn-in-lines and robust new well performance. The company reported net income attributable to common stock of $698 million, or $2.00 per diluted share, and increased its full-year 2026 free cash flow outlook to approximately $2.9 billion, reflecting stronger operating performance and higher commodity prices. In Egypt, APA said adjusted production was slightly lower than guidance primarily due to production sharing contract impacts associated with higher Brent prices.

"We are delivering another strong year, with our third-quarter results reflecting the quality of our assets and consistent execution across the business," said John J. Christmann IV, APA's CEO.

From oil sands to refined products

In Canada, Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU) reported in its third quarter 2026 results, released Nov. 3, record quarterly adjusted funds from operations of $6.7 billion and free funds flow of $5.2 billion (Suncor reports in Canadian dollars). The company said record bitumen transfers supported upstream production of 853,000 barrels per day, and that it achieved record third quarter refined product sales of 677,000 barrels per day. Subsequent to the quarter, Suncor increased its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.66 per share and raised monthly share repurchases by 50% to $750 million.

"The third quarter was highlighted by record adjusted funds from operations and the ingenuity of our teams, who continue to find new ways to create value through our unparalleled integration, most recently by sustaining Edmonton refinery throughput during a turnaround," said Rich Kruger, Chief Executive Officer.

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Inside the refinery

HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE: DINO) reported in its 2026 third quarter results, released Oct. 28, net income attributable to HF Sinclair stockholders of $2,015 million, or $11.38 per diluted share, compared with $403 million, or $2.15 per diluted share, a year earlier. Its Refining segment reported Adjusted EBITDA of $2,582 million, up from $661 million, an increase the company said was driven principally by the tight supply of transportation fuels across the markets, elevated crack spreads and benefits from the small refinery RINs waivers granted by the EPA. Adjusted refinery gross margin was $54.22 per produced barrel sold, a 183% increase compared to $19.16 a year earlier.

HF Sinclair's Chief Executive Officer, Franklin Myers, commented, "Our third quarter performance reflects the strength and continued focus on safe, reliable execution of all our businesses."

Gas in the Permian

Kinetik Holdings Inc. (NYSE: KNTK), which describes itself as a Permian-to-Gulf Coast midstream company operating in the Delaware Basin, provides gathering, transportation, compression, processing and treating services for companies that produce natural gas, natural gas liquids, crude oil and water. In its third quarter 2026 results, released Nov. 4, the company reported record processed gas volumes of 1.94 Bcf/d. Kinetik also said it reached a final investment decision on phase 1 of the ECCC Pipeline expansion, which is expected to increase throughput capacity by roughly 50% to approximately 225 MMcf/d.

"Kinetik delivered another strong quarter with record processed gas volumes underscoring the strength and increasing scale of our business," said Jamie Welch, Kinetik's President & Chief Executive Officer.

On the water

On Nov. 4, the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Forum and OPEC held a technical workshop on maritime energy flows, shipping and insurance, requested by ministers at an Oct. 12 meeting in Riyadh where, according to OPEC, they expressed concern about elevated shipping and insurance costs.

A day later, International Seaways, Inc. (NYSE: INSW), a tanker company providing energy transportation services, reported third quarter 2026 results with record net income of $344 million, or $6.90 per diluted share, including a $53 million gain on the sale of a 2012-built Suezmax tanker, compared to $71 million, or $1.42 per diluted share, a year earlier. The company said the increase was primarily driven by higher TCE revenues from spot earnings that increased an average of approximately $38,300 per day across the fleet and higher profit-sharing results on applicable time charters by approximately $75 million. It declared a dividend of $5.05 per share, matching the record set in the previous quarter.

Lois K. Zabrocky, International Seaways President and CEO commented, "We delivered record quarterly net income, reflecting both exceptional tanker market conditions and the benefits of our long-term approach to fleet investment and capital allocation."

One barrel, five reports

Read side by side, the five reports cover U.S. oil output above guidance, record bitumen transfers, higher refining margins, a gas pipeline expansion decision and record tanker net income.

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This article is independent news commentary. Oil Market Daily is wholly owned and operated by Market Equities Limited ("MEL"), a company incorporated under the laws of Ireland. MEL has not been paid by any company mentioned in this article. MEL and its owners, operators, directors, and affiliates do not currently own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article, but reserve the right to, and will, buy and sell shares of those companies at any time without further notice. Crude oil figures are settlement prices for the NYMEX December 2026 WTI and ICE January 2027 Brent futures contracts on November 10, 2026, compared with settlements on November 9 and October 30, 2026, drawn from exchange settlement data as reported by third-party market data providers. Outlook figures are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook released November 10, 2026, OPEC+ information is from OPEC press releases dated November 1 and November 4, 2026, and company figures and quotes are from each company's own news release as furnished to the SEC. Information is drawn from company news releases and filings, government and industry data, published reporting and third-party data believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Investing in securities carries risk, including the loss of some or all of your investment. This document is governed by the laws of Ireland.

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