FIU Cuba Poll: Cuban American support for Republicans holds despite opposition to deportations

Majority favors medicine and food sales, private sector aid and immigration relief alongside maximum pressure on the Cuban government

MIAMI, Oct. 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Seventy-six percent of Cuban Americans in South Florida disapprove of the Trump administration's increased deportations of Cubans with no criminal record, yet 68% still plan to vote for Republicans in November, according to the 2026 FIU Cuba Poll released today. 

Poll results will be presented and discussed on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 11 a.m. 

Support for Republican candidates remained consistent at 68 percent, which was the all-time high mark recorded in the 2024 Cuba Poll.

In Florida's U.S. Senate race, Republican Ashley Moody leads Democrat Angela Nixon 51% to 26% among respondents who named a choice. 44% of the full sample was still undecided. In the gubernatorial race, Republican Byron Donalds holds a lead over Democrat David Jolly, 60% to 24% respectively.

Republicans continue to make up the largest share of registered Cuban American voters (53%), followed by Independents (27%) and Democrats (18%).

Among possible Republican candidates for the 2028 presidential nomination, Marco Rubio leads with 58%, followed by J.D. Vance at 8% and Ron DeSantis at 7%. Fifty-four percent would support no Democrat for president in 2028. 

"Disappointment with the Trump administration has not moved Cuban Americans out of the Republican Party," said Guillermo J. Grenier, lead investigator on the Cuba Poll and a professor of sociology in the FIU Department of Global & Sociocultural Studies. "Republicans still make up 53% of registered voters, even as 63% of them disapprove of the administration's deportations and 50% are not pleased with its handling of the economy. Marco Rubio receives overwhelming support to carry the party standard in the next presidential election." 

The FIU Cuba Poll is the longest-running research project surveying Cuban American sentiment in the country, tracking opinions since 1991. Conducted by the Institute for Cuban Studies (ICS) and the Department of Global & Sociocultural Studies at the Steven J. Green School of International & Public Affairs (Green School), the poll surveyed 1,004 Cuban American adults in Miami-Dade County between September 4 and 29, 2026. The maximum margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, after accounting for weighting. 

Policy toward Cuba 

Respondents favor maximum pressure on the Cuban government (77%) while backing unrestricted sales of medicine and food, aid to Cuba's private sector and the resumption of immigration benefits for Cubans in the United States. 

"Cuban Americans want two things at once: a harder line on Havana and a softer life for the Cuban people," said Grenier. "The same respondents who back maximum pressure back medicine, food and aid to Cuba's private sector." 

Seventy-three percent favor allowing companies to sell medicine to Cuba without restriction, and 70% favor the same for food. Seventy-four percent favor directing U.S. assistance to Cuba's private sector to relieve the humanitarian crisis. Support is strongest among Democrats and the most recent arrivals, but a majority of Republicans also back these measures (62% for medicine and 64% for private sector aid). Unrestricted travel by all Americans to Cuba divides the community, with 51% in favor and 49% opposed. 

The same respondents who back help for the Cuban people also back pressure on its government. Sixty-five percent favor the blockade of oil imports to Cuba, and 69% believe maximum pressure will bring regime change. Seventy-three percent support U.S. military action to overthrow the government, including 87% of Republicans and 68% of Independents. Democrats oppose it. When asked what kind of action they would support, 43% chose a clandestine operation, 28% bombing of selected military targets and 14% a land invasion. 

On immigration, 63% of Republicans join the overall majority in disapproving of the administration's increased deportations of Cuban nationals who lack legal status and have no criminal record. Eighty-seven percent say the government should resume processing immigration benefits for Cubans already in the United States, including 86% of Republicans, 90% of Democrats and 86% of Independents. 

Cuban Americans want economic change tied to political change. Sixty-seven percent approve of easing sanctions in exchange for a free market economy within two years, but 80% reject a deal that leaves the current government in power in exchange for economic reforms alone. Respondents divide on process: 52% oppose the administration negotiating with members of Cuba's leadership, and 51% approve of a multiparty system with free elections in which the Communist Party may compete. 

Lead investigators Guillermo Grenier and Qing Lai will present the data at the Green School International Pavillion (SIPA II Room 102) on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 11 a.m. A panel discussion will immediately follow, featuring Green School faculty experts Eduardo Gamarra and Dario Moreno and moderated by Institute for Cuban Studies Director Sebastián Arcos. The event will be livestreamed on YouTube, and the full report is available at ics.fiu.edu.

Media Contact:
Daniel Zayas 
305-348-5360 
[email protected] 
news.fiu.edu
@FIU

SOURCE Florida International University