Global Economy Setback Increasingly Likely, Predicts the Economic Cycle Research Institute Data

Jun 07, 2010, 15:53 ET from The Journal of Commerce

NEWARK, N.J., June 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite recent optimism about a resurgent trade economy, the Economic Cycle Research Institute says recent movements in markets for raw industrial materials suggest global industrial growth is slowing, making a new economic slowdown very likely, according to a report by the business cycle analysts published in The Journal of Commerce this week.

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The ECRI analysts say the recent direction of the Industrial Price Index produced by The Journal of Commerce and ECRI, a strong leading indicator of industrial activity, signals a production slowdown is coming after a rapid upturn that began last fall as the United States came out its recession.

The rate of growth of the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index has fallen sharply from a mid-January high of 76.58 percent to 25.53 percent for the week ending May 28. This marks the sixth consecutive week of steady decline, with the growth rate falling 4.3144 percentage points from the week before, to the lowest level since August 2009.

In the week ending May 28, the JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index slipped 1.1624 points to 115.4037, the lowest level seen since March.

"A downturn in global industrial growth is at hand, and is likely to be accompanied by a downturn in shipping rates," Lakshman Acuthan and Anirvan Banerji write in the report in The Journal of Commerce.

JOC-ECRI data also supports a near-term downturn in Chinese industrial growth, which would reinforce the broader global slowdown.

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SOURCE The Journal of Commerce