Global Markets for Natural Gas-Fired Electricity Generation--Focus on Europe and Eurasia

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Global Markets for Natural Gas-Fired Electricity Generation--Focus on Europe and Eurasia

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REPORT SCOPE

INTRODUCTION STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the market for natural gas–fired electricity generation on a global basis. Its aim is to provide a range of information, from detailed regional analyses to overall industry trends, in order to quantify and forecast markets for electricity generation. Various types of electricity generation are forecast on a global basis. Forecasts and trends are predicted based on a cross-reference of data points gleaned from government, industry, and other data sources to arrive at a cogent and coordinated forecast.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

The global market for natural gas–fired electricity generation is large and growing at a relatively high rate. The market is also extremely complicated in terms of technology, policies and regulations, and economics. This report measures and analyzes different geographic and technology markets in order to help readers identify the regions and technologies where they can find the most promising opportunities.

The report also seeks to address changing market dynamics in the industry, emerging geographies, and types of technologies that are forecast to grow in each region. This study also provides insight into the market structure in each region. Such insight helps companies to identify global markets that are ripe for opportunity and those where entry or competition will be particularly difficult.

SCOPE OF REPORT

This report also presents forecasts for the size and growth of the electricity generation market in each country and region of the world. The report includes an analysis of the major industry structure of each market by geography. This analysis includes the levels of privatization versus public ownership of the electricity generation industry in a given market. It also covers the ways in which the markets function and the level of competition present. Relevant regulatory organizations, controls, and issues are also discussed.

Important government policies are presented as they relate to electricity generation and the industry in each country and region. The projected effects of these policies on the forecasts for electricity generation in each country and region are discussed. International agreements and regional cooperation are important to the electricity generating industries of many countries in the world, and these aspects are also discussed where they are relevant.

Industry trends in each technology market are presented. The discussion of industry trends supplements the market forecasts by giving the reader of sense of what drives each forecast. The study also provides a competitive analysis of the major firms involved in electricity generation around the globe. The firms that are analyzed include the major companies that are active in the major markets covered in the report. These companies include independent power producers, electric utilities with generation businesses for their own consumption or for sale on the wholesale market, and integrated utility companies that have a strong presence in the electricity generation industry.

Market figures are based on total installed capital cost of generation and are projected at 2012 dollar value. Inflation is not computed into the projection figures.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

The identification given in this report of overall market trends, product opportunities, emerging geographies, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities, and insights that provide guidance for sales growth or defensive moves is of utmost importance for a variety of constituents:

Established companies in the industry will benefit from the contents of the report with regard to corporate strategy, sales and marketing, business development, and research and development (R&D).

Emerging energy technology players in the industry must understand specific market dynamics in the nations and regions that are presented in the report. They must also understand trends and how they relate to the future of global electricity generation.

Investment firms evaluating candidates for venture capital or hedged investments will gain insights into the opportunities and risks that are being encountered in different industries across the globe. This report will enable them to have an understanding of opportunities for investments in the global energy-generation sector.

Equity analysts are provided detailed forecasts for the next five years, substantiated by quantitative analysis that can support further product and regional forecasts over the short and long run.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES June 2011

The primary source of capital and operating cost data for the market forecasts was the EIA's "Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generating Plants," published in November 2011. These data were supplemented with analyst estimates based on experience in the electricity generating industries.

Forecasts of market size in each year were made by multiplying the amount of generating capacity expected to be installed in a particular market in a particular year by the capital cost per unit of that technology. This provides a general high-level estimate of market size by technology and by country or region. The additional assumptions that go into the capital cost estimates for each technology are explained further in the Technologies chapter of this report.

The primary sources of data on each company analyzed and profiled include articles published by industry analysts as well as data available on company websites and in annual reports.Units:

1 metric tonne = 2204.62lb.

1 kilolitre = 6.2898 barrels

1 kilolitre = 1 cubic meter

1 kilocalorie (kcal) = 4.187 kilojoule (kJ) = 3.968 British thermal units (Btu)

1 kilojoule (kJ) = 0.239 kcal = 0.948 Btu

1 Btu = 0.252 kcal = 1.055 kJ

1 kilowatt-hour (kWh) = 860 kcal = 3600 kJ = 3412 Btu

Tonnes are used for market consumption data. Tonnes are defined as the metric equivalent of tons.

ANALYST CREDENTIALS

Stephanie Denarie earned a bachelor's degree in environmental studies from Brown University and has completed coursework in corporate finance at the University of California at Berkeley and San Francisco State University.

Ms. Denarie has intensive experience in energy transmission modeling and financial management, and has consulted for groups as diverse as Optimum Energy, LLC, the states of Utah and California, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Black & Veatch Corp.. Stephanie has developed several economic models and software tools to forecast price and economic competitiveness for energy projects, most especially for local renewable energy resources in diverse renewable energy markets.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES 1

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY 1

SCOPE OF REPORT 1

INTENDED AUDIENCE 2

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES 3

ANALYST CREDENTIALS 4

RELATED REPORTS 4

BCC ON-LINE SERVICES 5

DISCLAIMER 5

CHAPTER TWO: SUMMARY 6

SUMMARY TABLE GLOBAL MARKET FOR NATURAL GAS–FIRED

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, THROUGH 2017 ($

MILLIONS) 6

SUMMARY FIGURE GLOBAL MARKET FOR NATURAL GAS–FIRED

ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY REGION, 2010-2017 ($ MILLIONS) 7

SUMMARY (CONTINUED) 8

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW 9

OVERVIEW 9

NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY VALUE CHAIN 10

TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS 10

ELECTRICITY GENERATING REQUIREMENTS 11

CAPITAL COSTS 11

LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY 12

ELECTRICITY GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES 12

LIFE CYCLE AND THE NATURE OF POWER SECTOR

INVESTMENTS 13

IMPORTANCE OF THE INDUSTRY 13

IMPACT OF DIFFERENT FUEL TYPES ON NATURAL GAS 14

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS IMPACTING NATURAL GAS

POWER GENERATION 14

EFFECT ON THE FUTURE 14

NATURAL GAS–ENABLED UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY

STORAGE (UES) TECHNOLOGIES 15

COSTS AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY 16

PUMPED HYDROLOGIC STORAGE 16

Pumped Hydrologic Storage (Continued) 17

COMPRESSED AIR ENERGY STORAGE 18

BENEFITS OF UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY STORAGE

TECHNOLOGIES FOR NATURAL GAS ENERGY PRODUCTION 19

GRID BENEFITS 19

Load Leveling 19

Capacity Factor/Dispatch for Intermittent Renewables 20

Peaking Power Support 21

OFFSET OF NEEDED PEAKING POWER GENERATION

CAPACITY 22

OFFSET OF NEEDED RENEWABLE GENERATION

CAPACITY 23

ECONOMIC BENEFITS 23

Energy Arbitrage 24

Investment Deferral 24

RENEWABLE ENERGY DISPATCH AND TIMING BENEFITS 24

CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE 25

Carbon Capture and Storage (Continued) 26

Carbon Capture and Storage (Continued) 27

CHAPTER FOUR: TECHNOLOGIES 28

INTRODUCTION 28

OVERVIEW 28

TABLE 1 COST OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY TECHNOLOGY,

2011 29

NATURAL GAS–FIRED STEAM TURBINES 29

SUMMARY 29

FIGURE 1 SCHEMATIC OF NATURAL GAS–FIRED STEAM TURBINE 30

Current Trends 30

Key Players 31

Drivers for Natural Gas–Fired Steam Turbines 31

Drawbacks to Natural Gas–Fired Steam Turbines 31

Economics 31

GAS TURBINES 32

SUMMARY 32

FIGURE 2 SCHEMATIC OF GAS TURBINE 32

Current Trends 33

Ordered Capacity for Open Cycle Systems 33

Middle East and Africa 33

TABLE 2 CAPITAL COST COMPONENTS OF SIMPLE AND

COMBINED CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; GLOBAL IN

2011 DOLLARS ($) 34

TABLE 3 CAPITAL COST FORECAST FOR SIMPLE AND COMBINED

CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; GLOBAL IN 2011

DOLLARS, THROUGH 2017 ($) 34

TABLE 4 VOLUME OF ORDERS PLACED FOR OPEN CYCLE

SYSTEMS BY AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST, 2009 TO 2010

(UNITS & MW) 34

TABLE 4 (CONTINUED) 35

Europe 35

TABLE 5 VOLUME OF ORDERS PLACED FOR OPEN CYCLE

SYSTEMS IN EUROPE, IN 2009 TO 2010 (UNITS AND MW) 35

North America 36

TABLE 6 VOLUME OF ORDERS PLACED FOR OPEN CYCLE

SYSTEMS IN NORTH AMERICA, 2009 TO 2010 (UNITS AND MW) 36

Central and South America 36

TABLE 7 VOLUME OF ORDERS PLACED FOR OPEN CYCLE

SYSTEMS IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA, 2009 TO 2010

(UNITS AND MW) 36

Asia-Pacific 37

TABLE 8 VOLUME OF ORDERS PLACED FOR OPEN CYCLE

SYSTEMS IN ASIA-PACIFIC, IN 2009 TO 2010 (UNITS AND MW) 37

Key Players 37

Drivers for Natural Gas Turbines 38

Resistors for Natural Gas Turbines 38

Technological Developments 38

Economics 39

Outlook for Open Cycle Systems 39

NATURAL GAS COMBINED CYCLE 39

SUMMARY 39

FIGURE 3 SCHEMATIC NGCC PLANT 40

Current Trends 40

FIGURE 4 INSTALLATIONS IN THE U S , 2000—2010 41

TABLE 9 REPRESENTATIVE NATURAL GAS COMBINED CYCLE

PLANT INSTALLATION (MW) 42

Ordered Capacity for Natural Gas Combined Cycle

Systems 42

Europe 42

TABLE 10 VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR NATURAL GAS COMBINED

CYCLE PLANTS BY EUROPE, 2009 TO 2010 (UNITS AND MW) 43

Africa and the Middle East 43

TABLE 11 VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR NATURAL GAS COMBINED

CYCLE PLANTS BY AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST, 2009 TO

2010 (UNITS AND MW) 44

Asia-Pacific 44

North America 44

TABLE 12 VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR NATURAL GAS COMBINED

CYCLE PLANTS BY NORTH AMERICA, 2009 TO 2010 (UNITS AND

MW) 45

Key Players 45

TABLE 13 REPRESENTATIVE PLAYERS FOR NATURAL GAS

COMBINED CYCLE SYSTEMS 45

Drivers for Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plants 46

Highest Efficiency among Other Natural Gas–

Based Power Generation Technologies 46

TABLE 14 EFFICIENCY BY GAS-FIRED TECHNOLOGY, 2010 (%) 46

FIGURE 5 SPECTRUM OF NATURAL GAS–FIRED TECHNOLOGY

EFFICIENCIES, 2010 (%) 47

Low-Cost Electricity Generation 47

TABLE 15 COST OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY TECHNOLOGY,

2011 48

Cleanest Natural Gas–Based Power Generation

Technology 48

TABLE 16 EMISSIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, 2011 48

Drawbacks of Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plants 48

High Installation Cost 48

Technological Developments 49

TABLE 17 TOP THREE MANUFACTURERS DEVELOPING HIGHFIRING-

TEMPERATURE GAS TURBINES 50

Economics 50

Outlook for Natural Gas Combined Cycle 50

NATURAL GAS FUEL CELLS 51

SUMMARY 51

FIGURE 6 SCHEMATIC OF NATURAL GAS FUEL CELL 51

Fuel Cell Technologies 51

Alkaline Fuel Cell 52

Direct Methanol Fuel Cell 52

Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell (PAFC) 52

Proton-Exchange Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell 52

Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell (MCFC) 53

Solid Electrolyte Fuel Cell (SOFC) 53

TABLE 18 TYPES OF FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGIES 54

Current Scenario for Natural Gas Fuel Cells 54

TABLE 19 GLOBAL FUEL CELL INSTALLATIONS BY APPLICATION,

2010 (%) 55

Key Players 55

TABLE 20 TOP MARKET PARTICIPANTS IN NATURAL GAS FUEL

CELL TECHNOLOGY 56

Drivers of the Natural Gas Fuel Cell 56

Cleanest Among All Other Natural Gas–Based

Electricity Generation Technologies 56

TABLE 21 EMISSIONS BY TECHNOLOGIES (LB /MWH) 57

Natural Gas Fuel Cell Technology Offers High

Electricity Efficiency 57

TABLE 22 EFFICIENCY BY TECHNOLOGIES, 2010 (%) 57

FIGURE 7 EFFICIENCY BY TECHNOLOGIES, 2010 (%) 58

Natural Gas Fuel Cell Technology Is Highly

Suitable for Distributed and Backup Power

Generation 58

Drawbacks of Natural Gas Fuel Cells 59

High Installation Costs 59

Future Prospects for Fuel Cells Lean towards

Nonstationary Power Generation 59

Economics 60

Outlook for Fuel Cells 60

CHAPTER FIVE: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 61

SUMMARY 61

DRIVING FORCES IN THE INDUSTRY 61

DRIVERS OF DEMAND 61

Households 62

Commercial Sector 62

Industrial 62

REVENUE VOLATILITY 63

SUCCESS FACTORS THAT REALIZE GAINS AND MINIMIZE RISK 63

ABILITY TO PASS ON COST INCREASES 63

SUPERIOR FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND DEBT

MANAGEMENT 63

ABILITY TO NEGOTIATE SUCCESSFULLY WITH

REGULATORS 63

OPTIMUM CAPACITY UTILIZATION 64

COST BENCHMARKS: U S MARKETS 64

PROFIT 64

Purchases 64

Wages and Other 64

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND POLICIES: U S FOCUS 65

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND … (CONTINUED) 66

RATE REGULATION 67

DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES 68

ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATIONS 69

ELECTRICITY MARKET STRUCTURE 69

Privatization 70

Competition 70

FUEL PRICES 71

STRATEGIES FOR STAYING COMPETITIVE 72

LEVERAGING INDUSTRY ASSISTANCE 72

MANAGING GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND

DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES 72

Managing Competitive Markets 72

SHIFTS IN THE INDUSTRY 73

IMPACT OF OTHER INDUSTRIES 74

FUELS 74

BASIS OF COMPETITION 74

BARRIERS TO ENTRY 75

BARRIERS TO ENTRY (CONTINUED) 76

CHAPTER SIX: GLOBAL MARKETS 77

TABLE 23 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS FOR

ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2012 (MILLION TONNES

OIL EQUIVALENT) 77

NATURAL GAS RESERVES 78

TABLE 24 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PROVED RESERVES, THROUGH

2017 (TRILLION CUBIC METERS) 78

MARKET DYNAMICS 78

MARKET DYNAMICS (CONTINUED) 79

TABLE 25 NATURAL GAS EXPORTS, GLOBAL, 2010 (BILLION CUBIC

METERS) 80

GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION TRENDS 80

SUMMARY 80

TABLE 26 CAPITAL COST COMPONENTS OF SIMPLE AND

COMBINED CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; GLOBAL

REGIONS IN 2011 DOLLARS ($) 81

TABLE 27 CAPITAL COST FORECAST FOR SIMPLE AND COMBINED

CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; GLOBAL REGIONS IN

2011 DOLLARS, THROUGH 2017 ($) 81

TABLE 28 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION, THROUGH 2017

(MILLION TONNES OIL EQUIVALENT) 81

TABLE 29 ADDITIONS OF PROVEN NATURAL GAS RESERVES, 2000

TO 2010 (TRILLION CUBIC METERS) 82

TABLE 30 NATURAL GAS EXTRACTION TECHNOLOGY BY

METHOD, GLOBAL REGIONS, THROUGH 2017 (TRILLION CUBIC

METERS) 83

TABLE 31 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS FOR

ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2017 (MILLION TONNES

OIL EQUIVALENT) 83

CHAPTER SEVEN: EUROPE AND EURASIA 84

SUMMARY 84

TABLE 32 EUROPE AND EURASIA CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL

GAS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2012

(MILLION TONNES OIL EQUIVALENT) 84

TABLE 32 (CONTINUED) 85

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 85

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS 86

EXISTING GENERATION 87

INDUSTRY FORECAST 88

RUSSIA 88

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 88

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS 89

EXISTING GENERATION 90

INDUSTRY FORECAST 90

TABLE 33 RUSSIAN CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL GAS FOR

ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2017 (MILLION TONNES

OIL EQUIVALENT) 90

NON-OECD EUROPE AND EURASIA (OTHER THAN RUSSIA) 90

TABLE 34 NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN EUROPE AND EURASIA,

THROUGH 2017 (TRILLION CUBIC METERS) 91

TABLE 35 NATURAL GAS EXPORTS IN EUROPE AND EURASIA,

2010 (BILLION CUBIC METERS) 91

TABLE 36 CAPITAL COST COMPONENTS OF SIMPLE AND

COMBINED CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; EUROPE

AND EURASIA (IN 2011 DOLLARS) 92

TABLE 37 CAPITAL COST FORECAST FOR SIMPLE AND COMBINED

CYCLE NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES; EUROPE AND EURASIA

IN 2011 DOLLARS, THROUGH 2017 ($) 92

TABLE 38 NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN EUROPE AND EURASIA,

THROUGH 2017 (BILLION CUBIC METERS) 92

TABLE 38 (CONTINUED) 93

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 93

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS 94

EXISTING GENERATION 94

TABLE 39 EUROPE AND EURASIA ADDITIONS OF PROVEN

NATURAL GAS RESERVES, 2000 TO 2010 (TRILLION CUBIC

METERS) 95

TABLE 40 NATURAL GAS EXTRACTION TECHNOLOGY BY

METHOD, EUROPE AND EURASIA, THROUGH 2017 (TRILLION

CUBIC METERS) 95

INDUSTRY FORECAST 95

TABLE 41 EUROPE AND EURASIA CONSUMPTION OF NATURAL

GAS FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, THROUGH 2017

(MILLION TONNES OIL EQUIVALENT) 96

CHAPTER EIGHT: COMPANY PROFILES 97

SUMMARY 97

COMPANIES 97

AES CORP 97

Overview 97

Corporate Strategy 98

AES GENER SA 98

Overview 98

CHINA RESOURCES POWER HOLDINGS CO LTD 98

Overview 99

Corporate Strategy 99

CHINA YANGTZE POWER CO LTD 99

Overview 99

Corporate Strategy 99

CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP, INC 100

Overview 100

Corporate Strategy 100

DATANG INTERNATIONAL POWER GENERATION CO ,

LTD 100

Overview 100

Corporate Strategy 101

DOMINION RESOURCES, INC 101

Overview 101

Corporate Strategy 101

E ON AG 101

Overview 102

Corporate Strategy 102

ELECTRICITÉ DE FRANCE 102

Overview 102

Corporate Strategy 103

ELETROBRAS 103

Overview 103

Corporate Strategy 103

ENDESA SA 104

Overview 104

Corporate Strategy 104

ENERGIE BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG AG 104

Overview 104

Corporate Strategy 105

ENERSIS SA 105

Overview 105

Corporate Strategy 105

ESKOM HOLDINGS LTD 106

Overview 106

Corporate Strategy 106

HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL 106

Overview 106

Corporate Strategy 107

INTERNATIONAL POWER PLC 107

Overview 107

Corporate Strategy 107

J-POWER/ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT CO , LTD 108

Overview 108

Corporate Strategy 108

MIDAMERICAN ENERGY HOLDINGS CO 108

Overview 108

NEXTERA ENERGY, INC 109

Overview 109

Corporate Strategy 109

NRG ENERGY INC 109

Overview 109

Corporate Strategy 110

NTPC LTD 110

Overview 110

Corporate Strategy 110

PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC 111

Overview 111

Corporate Strategy 111

RUSHYDRO JSC 111

Overview 111

Corporate Strategy 112

RWE AG 112

Overview 112

Corporate Strategy 112

SAUDI ELECTRICITY CO 113

Overview 113

Corporate Strategy 113

SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN ENERGY PLC 113

Overview 113

Corporate Strategy 114

SEMPRA ENERGY 114

Overview 114

Corporate Strategy 114

SOUTHERN CO 114

Overview 115

Corporate Strategy 115

TATA POWER CO , LTD 116

Overview 116

Corporate Strategy 116

TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER CO , INC 116

Overview 116

Corporate Strategy 117

VATTENFALL AB 117

Overview 117

Corporate Strategy 117

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