Guidehouse Research Estimates North American PEV Sales to Surpass 11 Million Annually by 2034

EV market growth driven by policy incentives, model expansion, and lower battery costs

BOULDER, Colo., Aug. 19, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- A new report from Guidehouse Research analyzes the North American market for plug-in EVs (PEVs).

After record-breaking sales in 2024, the North American PEV market continues to gain momentum—fueled by broader consumer acceptance, a more robust public charging network, and a lower total cost of ownership compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. While inflation and raw material price volatility briefly slowed momentum, long-term fundamentals remain strong. According to a new report from Guidehouse Research, annual PEV sales in North America are projected to grow from 2.6 million in 2025 to 11.3 million in 2034, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.5%.

"Despite near-term uncertainty, the electric vehicle market in North America is on a clear upward trajectory," said Jason Pandich, research analyst with Guidehouse Research. "Strategic investments, improving technology, and declining battery costs are reinforcing the long-term economic case for PEV adoption."

While some automakers have adjusted timelines for full electrification—often shifting focus to plug-in hybrid models—the report finds that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will remain central to long-term growth. Federal legislation such as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act have spurred supply chain investments, with new battery and vehicle production facilities expected to come online in 2025.

Looking ahead, the report also identifies policy uncertainty and evolving trade dynamics as factors to watch. Potential shifts in emissions standards and the rollback of incentive programs, combined with new tariffs on key imports like EV components and raw materials as well as finished vehicles, could affect the pace of adoption, according to the report. Under a scenario with a rollback of emission standards and the elimination of incentive programs, PEV sales in the U.S. are expected to grow from 2.3 million in 2025 to 9.2 million in 2034, a CAGR of 16.8%.

The report, EV Geographic Forecast – North America, analyzes PEV adoption trends across the U.S. and Canada at the national, state/province, and local levels. It includes projections by powertrain type (BEV vs. PHEV), vehicle class (passenger cars and light trucks), and incorporates technology innovation, fuel pricing, model availability, and zero-emission vehicle mandates. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Guidehouse Research website.

About Guidehouse Research

Guidehouse Research, the dedicated market intelligence arm of Guidehouse, provides research, data, and benchmarking services for today's rapidly changing and highly regulated industries. Our insights are built on in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research, and demand assessment, paired with a deep examination of technology trends, to provide a comprehensive view of emerging resilient infrastructure systems. Additional information about Guidehouse Research can be found at guidehouseresearch.com.

About Guidehouse
Guidehouse is a global AI-led professional services firm delivering advisory, technology, and managed services to the commercial and government sectors. With an integrated business technology approach, Guidehouse drives efficiency and resilience in the healthcare, financial services, energy, infrastructure, and national security markets. Built to help clients across industries outwit complexity, the firm brings together approximately 18,000 professionals to achieve lasting impact and shape a meaningful future. guidehouse.com

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, EV Geographic Forecast – North America, is a summary and reflects the current expectations of Guidehouse Research based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report's conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Guidehouse Research nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

For more information, contact:

Cecile Fradkin for Guidehouse Research
+1.646.941.9139
[email protected] 

SOURCE Guidehouse Research