Home Prices In Highest-Risk Zips For Environmental Hazards Increased At Faster Pace Than U.S. Average Over Past Decade
Foreclosure Rates Lower in Highest-Risk Zip Codes; Superfund Risk Bucks Trends With Weaker Price Appreciation in Highest Risk Zips
Feb 22, 2018, 12:01 ET
IRVINE, Calif., Feb. 22, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation's premier property database, today released its 2017 Environmental Hazards Housing Risk Index, which shows that median home prices in U.S. zip codes in the highest 20 percent for environmental hazard risk appreciated at a faster pace than the overall U.S housing market over the past year, past five years and past 10 years.
For the report, ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed 8,665 U.S. zip codes with sufficient housing trend data for risk related to four environmental hazards: superfund sites, brownfields, polluters and poor air quality (see full methodology below).
Median home prices in zip codes in the top environmental hazard risk quintile increased 7.4 percent from a year ago on average (compared to 7.1 percent increase nationwide); increased 57.1 percent from 2012 (compared to 51.1 percent increase nationwide); and increased 22.2 percent from 2007 (compared to 12.3 percent increase nationwide).
"With housing inventory in short supply, even homes in higher-risk zip codes for environmental hazards are in high demand from buyers looking for lower-priced properties and investors looking for the next up-and-coming neighborhood," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. "Buyer demand does seem to have a bit of a limit when it comes to environmental hazards, however. Homes in zip codes with superfunds on the EPA's national priority list have seen weaker home price appreciation and have higher foreclosure rates than the overall housing market."
| Environmental Hazard Risk Quintiles |
||||||
| Data |
Very Low |
Low |
Moderate |
High |
Very High |
Overall Market |
| Zip Codes |
1,738 |
1,801 |
1,635 |
1,757 |
1,734 |
8,665 |
| Single Family Homes & Condos |
14,313,119 |
13,803,690 |
12,791,553 |
12,702,638 |
12,552,088 |
66,163,088 |
| Average Market Value |
$322,651 |
$356,700 |
$356,400 |
$342,086 |
$268,585 |
$329,217 |
| 2017 Median Sales Prices |
$285,225 |
$318,467 |
$313,144 |
$302,891 |
$237,570 |
$291,448 |
| Average of 1-Year Home Price Appreciation |
7.3% |
7.3% |
6.9% |
6.7% |
7.4% |
7.1% |
| Average of 5-Year HPA |
52.1% |
49.6% |
47.5% |
49.2% |
57.1% |
51.1% |
| Average of 10-Year HPA |
4.6% |
11.0% |
13.6% |
10.3% |
22.2% |
12.3% |
| Average Foreclosure Rate |
0.4% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
| Sales in 2017 |
760,119 |
667,858 |
610,726 |
600,412 |
590,925 |
3,230,040 |
Foreclosure rates lower in highest-risk zip codes
Home foreclosure rates in zip codes in the highest quintile for environmental hazard risk were slightly lower at 0.3 percent of all homes with a mortgage than in the overall market — 0.4 percent.
Superfund risk was the exception. The home foreclosure rate in zip codes in the highest risk category for superfund risk was on average 0.7 percent, more than 1.5 times the overall market foreclosure rate of 0.4 percent.
Highest-risk zips for superfunds post weaker price appreciation, higher foreclosure rates
Of the four environmental risk factors analyzed in the report, Superfund risk was the only factor where home prices in the highest-risk zip codes appreciated at a slower pace than the overall market. Median home prices in zip codes with Very High Superfund risk increased an average of 7.0 percent from a year ago (compared to 7.1 percent nationwide), increased an average of 44.1 percent from five years ago (compared to 51.1 percent nationwide) and were up an average of 7.6 percent from 10 years ago (compared to 12.3 percent nationwide).
| Superfund Risk |
|||||
| Data |
Very Low |
Moderate |
High |
Very High |
Overall Market |
| Zip Codes |
8,131 |
50 |
176 |
308 |
8,665 |
| Single Family Homes & Condos |
61,816,165 |
832,153 |
1,839,661 |
1,675,109 |
66,163,088 |
| Average Market Value |
$331,472 |
$300,052 |
$262,681 |
$312,456 |
$329,217 |
| 2017 Median Sales Prices |
$293,688 |
$253,422 |
$228,811 |
$274,277 |
$291,448 |
| Average of 1-Year Home Price Appreciation |
7.1% |
6.2% |
7.2% |
7.0% |
7.1% |
| Average of 5-Year HPA |
51.6% |
47.6% |
42.9% |
44.1% |
51.1% |
| Average of 10-Year HPA |
12.6% |
6.9% |
9.0% |
7.6% |
12.3% |
| Average Foreclosure Rate |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
| Sales in 2017 |
3,036,742 |
39,078 |
84,913 |
69,307 |
3,230,040 |
Houston, Riverside, Portland markets with most combined home value in highest-risk zips
A total of 12.6 million U.S. single family homes and condos with a combined estimated market value of $3.4 trillion were in zip codes in the top quintile for environmental hazard housing risk. The average market value of those homes was $268,585 compared to an average market value of $329,217 for all 66.2 million U.S. single family homes and condos analyzed for the report.
Markets with the most combined value of homes in zip codes in the top quintile for environmental hazard risk were Houston, Texas ($415 billion); Riverside-San Bernardino, California ($344 billion); Portland, Oregon ($254 billion); Washington, D.C. ($161 billion); and Chicago, Illinois ($134 billion).
Top 10 zip codes for overall environmental hazard housing risk
Zip codes with the 10 highest total Environmental Hazard Housing Risk Index values in 2017 were in Denver, Southern California, Portland, St. Louis, Burlington, North Carolina, Tulsa, Oklahoma and Houston.
| Zip Code |
City |
State |
Overall Risk Index |
2017 Median Sales Prices |
1-Year HPA |
5-Year HPA |
10-Year HPA |
Foreclosure Rate |
| 80216 |
Denver |
CO |
497 |
$250,000 |
11% |
233% |
194% |
0.14% |
| 92408 |
San Bernardino |
CA |
482 |
$216,000 |
8% |
101% |
-34% |
0.18% |
| 97378 |
Sheridan |
OR |
373 |
$176,900 |
10% |
66% |
13% |
0.17% |
| 63133 |
Saint Louis |
MO |
351 |
$20,500 |
21% |
31% |
-59% |
0.18% |
| 27258 |
Haw River |
NC |
331 |
$163,250 |
2% |
52% |
66% |
0.17% |
| 92501 |
Riverside |
CA |
326 |
$325,000 |
10% |
97% |
-12% |
0.46% |
| 90670 |
Santa Fe Springs |
CA |
320 |
$444,250 |
2% |
56% |
-6% |
0.38% |
| 74108 |
Tulsa |
OK |
319 |
$75,000 |
9% |
7% |
-6% |
0.22% |
| 74119 |
Tulsa |
OK |
287 |
$115,000 |
-3% |
26% |
63% |
0.00% |
| 77042 |
Houston |
TX |
285 |
$381,500 |
11% |
216% |
129% |
0.01% |
Methodology
For the report, ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed 8,665 U.S. zip codes with sufficient housing trend data for risk related to four environmental hazards: superfund sites, brownfields, polluters and poor air quality.
A housing risk index was calculated for each of the four types of hazards in each of the 8,642 zip codes. The maximum index value for each index was 250 and the minimum value was 0.
A combined environmental hazard index comprised of these four factors and with a maximum possible score of 1,000 was assigned to each zip code. The highest actual score for any zip code was 497. Each individual natural hazard index accounted for 25 percent of the combined index.
Environmental Hazard Definitions and Sources
Poor Air Quality: This percentage is derived from the average percentage of days without significant traces of Carbon Monoxide, Fine Particles, Particulate Matter, Nitrogen Dioxide, Ozone, or Sulfur Dioxide in the air as reported by the Environmental Protection Agency. For more details, visit http://www.epa.gov/airquality/cleanair.html.
Superfunds on National Priorities List: is the list of national priorities among the known releases or threatened releases of hazardous substances, pollutants, or contaminants throughout the United States and its territories. The NPL is intended primarily to guide the EPA in determining which sites warrant further investigation. For more details, visit http://www.epa.gov/superfund/sites/npl/.
Brownfield Site: With certain legal exclusions and additions, the term "brownfield site" means real property, the expansion, redevelopment, or reuse of which may be complicated by the presence or potential presence of a hazardous substance, pollutant, or contaminant. For more details, visit http://epa.gov/brownfields/index.html.
Polluters: Data from the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) Program that requires certain industrial facilities that manufacture or process more than 25,000 pounds of a TRI-listed chemical or otherwise uses more than 10,000 pounds of a listed chemical in a given year to report that to the Environmental Protection Agency. For more details, visit http://www2.epa.gov/toxics-release-inventory-tri-program.
Data Licensing and Custom Report Order
Investors, businesses and government institutions can contact ATTOM Data Solutions to purchase the full dataset behind the 2017 Environmental Hazards Housing Risk Index, including data at the state, metro, county and zip code level. The data is also available via bulk license or in customized reports. For more information contact our Data Solutions Department at 800.462.5193 or [email protected].
About ATTOM Data Solutions
ATTOM Data Solutions blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties multi-sourced from more than 3,000 U.S. counties. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes and enhances the data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. With more than 29.6 billion rows of transactional-level data and more than 7,200 discrete data attributes, the 9TB ATTOM data warehouse powers real estate transparency for innovators, entrepreneurs, disrupters, developers, marketers, policymakers, and analysts through flexible delivery solutions, including bulk file licenses, APIs and customized reports.
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