iPhone Duo Expected to Capture Nearly 25% of Foldable Smartphone Market in 2026 as Apple's First Foldable Drives Supply Chain Upgrades, Says TrendForce

TAIPEI, Sept. 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Apple has officially launched its first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo. Featuring a book-style inward-folding design, the device comes with a 7.6-inch inner display and a 5.4-inch cover display. TrendForce estimates that iPhone Duo shipments will reach approximately 5 million units in 2026, giving Apple a 24.8% share of the foldable smartphone market and making it the second-largest brand behind Samsung.

TrendForce forecasts global foldable smartphone shipments of approximately 20.2 million units in 2026, up just 0.5% YoY. Excluding Apple, combined shipments from Android brands are expected to reach only around 15.2 million units, down more than 20% YoY.

The decline mainly reflects sharp increases in component costs, with most brands expected to post flat or lower shipments than the previous year. Samsung is projected to ship approximately 7.1 million units for a 35.1% market share, while Huawei is expected to ship around 5 million units for a 24.8% share.

Foldable competition shifts toward structural design, prompting rivals to reassess strategies

As foldable devices mature, competition is increasingly focused on thinner, lighter designs, reduced creasing, and long-term reliability. Crease reduction no longer depends solely on hinge design or any single material. Instead, manufacturers are moving toward the co-design of ultra-thin glass (UTG), optically clear adhesive (OCA), OLED modules, and support structures. Suppliers can better control stress distribution across the folding area by optimizing material modulus, thickness distribution, and layer positioning.

TrendForce notes that the iPhone Duo's inner display module features a 10-layer stack of ultra-thin materials, combined with a nano-texture surface treatment to reduce reflections and make the crease less visually noticeable. The device also features a Grade 5 titanium frame and hinge cover. It weighs around 254g and measures approximately 5.2 mm thick when unfolded and 11.3 mm when folded.

Apple has omitted a dedicated periscope telephoto camera to minimize thickness and conserve internal space. Instead, the 48 MP main camera provides 2x optical-quality zoom, while a side-mounted Touch ID sensor replaces Face ID. These choices highlight the trade-offs that foldable smartphones continue to face among device thickness, camera capabilities, biometric components, and battery space.

The iPhone Duo's design suggests that Apple is not simply pursuing a larger foldable display. Instead, the company is differentiating the device through crease reduction, long-term reliability, consistency between the inner and outer displays, and thinner integration of the display module with the overall device.

Additionally, iOS 27 expands the foldable experience through enhanced Split View for two-app multitasking, continuity between the inner and outer displays, and interfaces optimized for different folding angles. This extends the value of the foldable form factor beyond hardware into software and multitasking.

TrendForce views 2026 as a year of structural realignment for the foldable smartphone market. For now, incremental demand generated by the iPhone Duo is primarily offsetting declines among existing brands.

However, over the medium to long term, Apple's requirements for displays, UTG, hinges, and overall device architecture could accelerate supply chain technology maturation and the expansion of mass-production scale. Apple's entry could also prompt Samsung and Chinese brands to reassess their foldable product strategies, accelerating improvements in technical specifications and cost reductions.

In addition to ongoing hardware improvements, AI applications may significantly boost demand for foldable devices. As generative and multimodal AI become more embedded in smartphones, their use cases are broadening from simple apps to real-time translation, content creation, image editing, document summarization, and cross-application collaboration. The expanded display space of an open foldable phone allows users to view AI-generated content, source material, and multiple apps simultaneously, enriching multitasking and human-machine interaction.

For Apple, the iPhone Duo integrates Apple Intelligence and Siri AI to support natural-language interactions, personalized contextual understanding, and in-app actions. Deeper integration of AI and multitasking interfaces with the larger foldable display could transform the device from a hardware differentiator into a new interface for AI applications.

This suggests that the next stage of foldable smartphone competition will extend beyond making devices thinner, lighter, and less prone to visible creasing. Creating AI experiences that are fundamentally different from those available on conventional slab smartphones will also be critical to further expanding the market.

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About TrendForce

TrendForce is a global leader in technology industry analysis and consulting services. With deep expertise spanning foundry, DRAM, HBM, NAND Flash, AI servers, robotics, near-eye displays, display panels, LEDs, MLCC, and green energy, it also offers in-depth research into key market drivers such as AI, automotive technologies, 5G/6G communications, LEO satellites, and the IoT.

Backed by a team of top industry professionals, TrendForce has been at the forefront of global market research for over 25 years. More than 60% of its clients are among the world's top 500 companies.

TrendForce's global footprint includes Taipei, Shenzhen, Silicon Valley, New York, and Tokyo. With timely and strategic industry analysis, TrendForce delivers the critical information that empowers businesses to make smarter, faster decisions.

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SOURCE TrendForce