J.S. Held Lending Climate Survey Shows Diverging Credit Strategies as Lenders Recalibrate in Q2 2026

Mixed rate expectations and selective easing in smaller loans reflect an increasingly differentiated lending environment.

NEW YORK, June 24, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Global consulting firm J.S. Held today published the results of the Q2 2026 "Lending Climate in America" survey, offering insight into how lenders are assessing economic conditions, credit risk, and borrower readiness. The latest results reflect a shift from the tightening and fragmented outlook observed in Q1 2026 toward a more differentiated lending environment. While economic sentiment shows early signs of stabilization, lenders' expectations for interest rates have become less directional, and credit strategies are increasingly varied across loan sizes and borrower profiles. Geopolitical risk now ranks as the leading concern among respondents, underscoring a more complex and less consensus-driven macro environment.

To review the complete findings from the Q2 2026 J.S. Held Lending Climate in America survey, visit: https://www.jsheld.com/uploads/Q2-2026_Lending-Climate-in-America-Report.pdf.

Lender Sentiment Shows Early Stabilization Following Q1 Decline

The share of lenders grading the near-term US economy a "B" rose to 34.5% in Q2, up from 24.0% in Q1 2026, while the share assigning a "D" declined to 13.8% from 18.3%. Expectations remain, however, well below late-2025 levels, when approximately half of respondents assigned a "B" outlook.

"The Q2 data suggests that while sentiment is no longer deteriorating at the pace observed in Q1, lenders have not returned to a broadly optimistic stance," said J.S. Held Senior Managing Director and Strategic Advisory Practice Leader, Michael Jacoby. "Instead, we are seeing a more complex environment in which expectations are stabilizing, but conviction remains limited."

Geopolitical Risk Emerges as Leading Concern

Geopolitical risk and war remained the most frequently cited factor expected to affect the economy over the next six months, selected by 42.4% of respondents. Policy risk, including interest rates, followed at 32.5%. Several additional concerns were tightly clustered, including constrained liquidity in capital markets (27.6%), stock market stability and US recession risk (27.1% each), and political uncertainty (26.6%).

Compared with prior quarters, the data reflects a transition away from politically driven concerns toward a more balanced grouping of market, fiscal, and geopolitical risks.

"Geopolitical risk is no longer a background variable in lender decision-making. It is increasingly shaping expectations around capital availability, supply chain stability, and borrower performance," said Senior Managing Director Livia Paggi, a political risk and business intelligence expert at J.S. Held. "Lenders are incorporating a broader range of external risk factors into their analysis, particularly where geopolitical developments may introduce volatility that is difficult to forecast using traditional financial indicators."

Interest Rate Expectations Become Less Directional

In Q1 2026, lenders shifted toward expectations for interest rate increases or no change, reflecting concerns around persistent inflation and a higher-for-longer rate environment. In Q2, that view has moderated.

Credit Strategies Diverge Across Loan Categories

In Q1, the survey indicated a clear shift toward tighter credit standards and increased selectivity. In Q2, that trend has evolved into a more differentiated approach to credit positioning.

Across loan-size categories, "maintain" remains the majority response but has declined, signaling movement away from a steady-state lending posture. For loans under $5 million, reported easing increased, suggesting some lenders are selectively relaxing terms in smaller credits to remain competitive while maintaining discipline in larger exposures.

"The lending environment is becoming more differentiated quarter over quarter," said Kevin Doyle, Director in J.S. Held's Strategic Advisory practice. "While selectivity remains a defining characteristic, lenders are increasingly tailoring credit decisions to specific borrower profiles and loan sizes. For companies seeking capital, preparation and clarity around operating performance and liquidity remain critical."

Volatility Expectations Remain Concentrated but Shift in Composition

Finance and insurance remained the sector most frequently identified as likely to experience volatility over the next six months, though the share declined to 54.2% from 63.0% in Q1. Energy and power remained second at 34.0%, largely unchanged quarter over quarter.

Consumer products and services increased modestly to 26.1%, while technology, media, and telecommunications declined significantly from 26.0% in Q1 to 12.3% in Q2. Agriculture and healthcare ranked among the top sectors in Q2, indicating a modest broadening of perceived risk across industries.

Borrower Activity Reflects Continued Focus on Organic Growth

Survey responses indicate that borrowers continue to prioritize forward-looking initiatives despite a more disciplined lending environment. At the same time, appetite for acquisitions declined further, falling to 16.7% from 21.2% in Q1, suggesting a continued shift away from M&A toward organic growth and operational investment.

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About J.S. Held

J.S. Held is a global consulting firm that combines technical, scientific, financial, and strategic expertise to advise clients seeking to realize value and mitigate risk. Our professionals serve as trusted advisors to organizations facing high stakes matters demanding urgent attention, staunch integrity, proven experience, clear-cut analysis, and an understanding of both tangible and intangible assets. The firm provides a comprehensive suite of services, products, and data that enable clients to navigate complex, contentious, and often catastrophic situations.

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SOURCE J.S. Held