Keurig Dr Pepper Reports Q1 2023 Results and Reaffirms Guidance for 2023

Company Delivers Continued Strong Net Sales Momentum, led by U.S. Refreshment Beverages

BURLINGTON, Mass. and FRISCO, Texas, April 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) today reported results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023 and reaffirmed its guidance for full year constant currency net sales growth of 5% and Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 6% to 7%.

Commenting on the announcement, Chairman and CEO Bob Gamgort stated, "Our overall performance in the quarter demonstrated the resilience of KDP as we delivered on our commitments in a dynamic macro environment. Our results were led by strong revenue growth, supported by successful innovation, increased marketing and modest brand elasticities. The U.S. Refreshment Beverages and International segments exhibited standout performance and, as expected, U.S. Coffee had a slower start to the year. Though the at-home coffee category is still cycling through mobility-related changes relative to last year, single serve continues to gain volume share of the U.S. category. On a consolidated basis and against the backdrop of persistent inflation, we are driving healthy bottom-line growth while reinvesting in our business, and we remain confident in our 2023 outlook."

First Quarter Consolidated Results
Net sales for the first quarter of 2023 increased 8.9% to $3.35 billion, compared to $3.08 billion in the year-ago period and, on a constant currency basis, net sales also advanced 8.9%.  Driving the consolidated net sales growth was favorable net price realization of 9.9%, only slightly offset by lower volume/mix of 1.0%, reflecting the strength of the Company's brand portfolio and continued modest elasticities across most categories. 

KDP in-market performance in the U.S. Liquid Refreshment Beverages (LRB) category remained strong, with retail dollar consumption² advancing 13.6% and KDP growing market share in categories representing approximately 88% of its cold beverage retail sales base.  The performance reflected strength in CSDs³, seltzers, coconut waters, energy, apple juice and fruit drinks and was driven by Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, Sunkist, Squirt and Crush CSDs, as well as Polar seltzers, Vita Coco, C4 Energy, Mott's and Hawaiian Punch.

Total at-home coffee category trends continued to be impacted in the quarter by greater consumer mobility versus the prior year, with the single serve pod segment gaining volume share of the category. U.S. retail dollar consumption² of KDP Manufactured pods decreased 0.5% in IRi tracked channels in the quarter, while KDP Manufactured share remained healthy at approximately 81%.

GAAP operating income for the quarter decreased 39.5% to $584 million, compared to $966 million in the year-ago period, primarily reflecting the unfavorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, including the gain on the Body Armor litigation settlement in 2022, as well as the comparison to year-ago benefits related to the Company's strategic asset investment program, a change in accounting for non-cash stock compensation expense and a recovery of legal fees, which collectively represented an $88 million unfavorable impact in the quarter.  Also impacting the comparison was growth in GAAP gross profit, as continued broad-based inflation was more than offset by the strong net sales performance and higher productivity. 

Excluding items affecting comparability, Adjusted operating income decreased 4.5% to $699 million, despite the strong growth in net sales and Adjusted gross profit, primarily due to the comparison to year-ago benefits, broad-based inflationary pressure, as well as increased marketing investment.  On a percent of net sales basis, Adjusted operating income was 20.8%.  

GAAP net income for the quarter decreased 20.2% to $467 million, or $0.33 per diluted share, compared to $585 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, in the year-ago period.  This performance reflected the unfavorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability and the decline in Adjusted operating income, partially offset by the benefits of Nutrabolt equity method earnings, a lower effective tax rate and lower diluted shares outstanding.   Excluding items affecting comparability, Adjusted net income for the quarter advanced 0.6% to $479 million, and Adjusted diluted EPS increased 3.0% to $0.34.

Free cash flow for the first quarter was $16 million, reflecting lower operating cash flow and higher capital expenditures.

During the quarter, the Company repurchased approximately 6.6 million KDP shares at a weighted average price per share of $34.96, totaling approximately $231 million. The Company has approximately $3.4 billion remaining under its share repurchase authorization expiring on December 31, 2025.

First Quarter Segment Results

U.S. Refreshment Beverages
Net sales for the first quarter increased 12.7% to $2.01 billion, compared to $1.78 billion in the year-ago period, reflecting favorable net price realization of 12.5% and a 0.2% increase in volume/mix.  Driving this exceptional performance was strong traction from recent innovation, most notably Dr Pepper Strawberries & Cream, and effective in-market execution, as well as the contribution from our recently announced sales and distribution partnership for C4 Energy.   

GAAP operating income decreased 30.4% to $490 million, compared to $704 million in the year-ago period, largely reflecting the unfavorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, including the gain on the Body Armor litigation settlement in 2022. Also impacting the performance was continued broad-based inflationary pressure and a net $32 million year-over-year headwind from the Company's strategic asset investment program, partially offset by the strong net sales growth and productivity.  Excluding items affecting comparability, Adjusted operating income increased 11.6% to $508 million and, on a percent of net sales basis, totaled 25.3%.

U.S. Coffee
Net sales for the first quarter decreased 1.3% to $931 million, compared to $943 million in the year-ago period.  This performance reflected higher net price realization of 5.3%, more than offset by a 6.6% decline in volume/mix.  

At-home coffee consumption in the quarter continued to normalize post the pandemic.  Pod revenue grew 2.9%, including a shipment decline of 1.9% due primarily to greater mobility versus the prior year.  On a trailing twelve-month basis versus the pre-pandemic Q1 2019 period, at-home pod shipments grew 22.8%, representing a mid-single digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR).

Brewer shipments totaled 10.2 million for the twelve months ending March 31, 2023, representing a 9.8% decline year-over-year.  Compared against pre-pandemic levels represented by the twelve months ending March 31, 2019, brewer shipments grew 25.6%, representing a mid-single digit CAGR.

GAAP operating income decreased 9.0% to $232 million, compared to $255 million in the year-ago period, largely reflecting the decline in volume/mix, broad-based inflationary pressure and an unfavorable year-over-year impact of items affecting comparability, partially offset by higher net price realization and productivity. Excluding items affecting comparability, Adjusted operating income decreased 5.3% to $285 million and, on a percent of net sales basis, totaled 30.6%.

International
Net sales for the first quarter increased 17.2% to $415 million, compared to $354 million in the year-ago period and, on a constant currency basis, net sales advanced 16.7%.  This strong and balanced performance was driven by higher net price realization of 9.0% and volume/mix growth of 7.7%, and reflected strength in Peñafiel and growth in K-Cup® Pods in Canada.

GAAP operating income increased a strong 25.0% to $80 million, compared to $64 million in the year-ago period, largely reflecting the benefits of the double-digit increase in net sales and productivity, as well as items affecting comparability, partially offset by broad-based inflationary pressure.  Excluding items affecting comparability, Adjusted operating income increased 18.3% to $84 million and, on a percent of net sales basis, totaled 20.2%.

2023 Guidance
The 2023 guidance provided below is presented on a constant currency, non-GAAP basis.  The Company does not provide reconciliations of such forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP measures, due to the inability to predict the amount and timing of impacts outside of the Company's control on certain items, such as non-cash gains or losses resulting from mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments, among others.

On a constant currency basis, KDP continues to expect net sales growth of 5% and Adjusted diluted EPS growth of 6% to 7% in 2023, with foreign currency translation expected to be an approximate one half of one percentage point headwind to both metrics.

Investor Contacts:
Jane Gelfand
T: 888-340-5287 / jane.gelfand@kdrp.com

Chethan Mallela
T: 646-620-8761 / chethan.mallela@kdrp.com

Media Contact:
Katie Gilroy
T: 781-418-3345 / katie.gilroy@kdrp.com

About Keurig Dr Pepper
Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is a leading beverage company in North America, with annual revenue of more than $14 billion and approximately 28,000 employees. KDP holds leadership positions in liquid refreshment beverages, including soft drinks, specialty coffee and tea, water, juice and juice drinks and mixers, and markets the #1 single serve coffee brewing system in the U.S. and Canada. The Company's portfolio of more than 125 owned, licensed and partner brands is designed to satisfy virtually any consumer need, any time, and includes Keurig®, Dr Pepper®, Canada Dry®, Clamato®, CORE®, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters®, Mott's®, Snapple®, and The Original Donut Shop®. Through its powerful sales and distribution network, KDP can deliver its portfolio of hot and cold beverages to nearly every point of purchase for consumers. The Company's Drink Well. Do Good. corporate responsibility platform is focused on the greatest opportunities for impact in the environment, its supply chain, the health and well-being of consumers and with its people and communities. For more information, visit www.keurigdrpepper.com. 

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
Certain statements contained herein are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of applicable securities laws and regulations. These forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of words such as "outlook," "guidance," "anticipate," "expect," "believe," "could," "estimate," "feel," "forecast," "intend," "may," "plan," "potential," "project," "should," "target," "will," "would," and similar words. Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. These statements are based on the current expectations of our management, are not predictions of actual performance, and actual results may differ materially.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including the factors disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC. We are under no obligation to update, modify or withdraw any forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.

NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
This release includes certain non-GAAP financial measures including Adjusted gross profit, Adjusted operating income, Adjusted net income, Adjusted diluted EPS, free cash flow and financial measures presented on a constant currency basis, which differ from results using U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). These non-GAAP financial measures should be considered as supplements to the GAAP reported measures, should not be considered replacements for, or superior to, the GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similarly named measures used by other companies. Non-GAAP financial measures typically exclude certain charges, including one-time costs that are not expected to occur routinely in future periods. The Company uses non-GAAP financial measures internally to focus management on performance excluding these special charges to gauge our business operating performance. Management believes this information is helpful to investors because it increases transparency and assists investors in understanding the underlying performance of the Company and in the analysis of ongoing operating trends. Additionally, management believes that non-GAAP financial measures are frequently used by analysts and investors in their evaluation of companies, and their continued inclusion provides consistency in financial reporting and enables analysts and investors to perform meaningful comparisons of past, present and future operating results. The most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures are set forth in the appendix to this release and included in the Company's filings with the SEC.

To the extent that the Company provides guidance, it does so only on a non-GAAP basis and does not provide reconciliations of such forward-looking non-GAAP measures to GAAP due to the inability to predict the amount and timing of impacts outside of the Company's control on certain items, such as non-cash gains or losses resulting from mark-to-market adjustments of derivative instruments, among others.

KEURIG DR PEPPER INC.
RECONCILIATION OF CERTAIN NON-GAAP INFORMATION
(UNAUDITED)

The company reports its financial results in accordance with U.S. GAAP. However, management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures that reflect the way management evaluates the business may provide investors with additional information regarding the company's results, trends and ongoing performance on a comparable basis.

Specifically, investors should consider the following with respect to our financial results:

Adjusted: Defined as certain financial statement captions and metrics adjusted for certain items affecting comparability.

Items affecting comparability: Defined as certain items that are excluded for comparison to prior year periods, adjusted for the tax impact as applicable. Tax impact is determined based upon an approximate rate for each item. For each period, management adjusts for (i) the unrealized mark-to-market impact of derivative instruments not designated as hedges in accordance with U.S. GAAP that do not have an offsetting risk reflected within the financial results, as well as the unrealized mark-to-market impact of our Vita Coco investment; (ii) the amortization associated with definite-lived intangible assets; (iii) the amortization of the deferred financing costs associated with the DPS Merger; (iv) the amortization of the fair value adjustment of the senior unsecured notes obtained as a result of the DPS Merger; (v) stock compensation expense and the associated windfall tax benefit attributable to the matching awards made to employees who made an initial investment in KDP; (vi) non-cash changes in deferred tax liabilities related to goodwill and other intangible assets as a result of tax rate or apportionment changes; and (vii) other certain items that are excluded for comparison purposes to prior year periods.

For the first quarter of 2023, the other certain items excluded for comparison purposes include productivity expenses.

For the first quarter of 2022, the other certain items excluded for comparison purposes include (i) restructuring and integration expenses related to significant business combinations; (ii) productivity expenses; (iii) costs related to significant non-routine legal matters, specifically the antitrust litigation; (iv) the loss on early extinguishment of debt related to the redemption of debt; (v) incremental costs to our operations related to risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, which were incurred to either maintain the health and safety of our front-line employees or temporarily increase compensation to such employees to ensure essential operations continue during the pandemic; (vi) the gain on the sale of our investment in BodyArmor as a result of the settlement of the associated holdback liability; (vii) the gain on the settlement of our prior litigation with BodyArmor, excluding recoveries of previously incurred litigation expenses which were included in our adjusted results; and (viii) losses recognized with respect to our equity method investment in Bedford as a result of funding our share of their wind-down costs.

Constant currency adjusted: Defined as certain financial statement captions and metrics adjusted for certain items affecting comparability, calculated on a constant currency basis by converting our current period local currency financial results using the prior period foreign currency exchange rates.

For the first quarter ended March 31, 2022 and 2021, the supplemental financial data set forth below includes reconciliations of adjusted and constant currency adjusted financial measures to the applicable financial measure presented in the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for the same period.

KEURIG DR PEPPER INC.
RECONCILIATION OF NET CASH PROVIDED BY OPERATING ACTIVITIES TO FREE CASH FLOW
(UNAUDITED)

Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities adjusted for purchases of property, plant and equipment, proceeds from sales of property, plant and equipment, and certain items excluded for comparison to prior year periods. For the first quarter of 2023 and 2022, there were no certain items excluded for comparison to prior year periods.

SOURCE Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.