Manhattan Condo Market Sees Flurry of Activity From Buyers and Sellers Ahead of the Slower Winter Season

Pending sales surge 31 percent from September, according to the October StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report

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Nov 25, 2014, 09:00 ET

NEW YORK, Nov. 25, 2014 /PRNewswire/ --

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Homebuyers in the Manhattan condo market appeared to be taking advantage of two months of modest inventory gains and faltering price growth in October, giving pending sales of condos a 31 percent surge from September. This was the largest monthly increase in pending sales since May 2013, according to the October StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report.

Pending condo sales, or condos that entered into contract, surged 31 percent from September, the largest monthly gain since May 2013.
Manhattan condo inventory rose 3 percent from September and was 10.5 percent above year-ago levels, representing the greatest supply level in 2 years (since October 2012).
Despite October's seasonal gains, Manhattan condo inventory remains 9 percent below the 5-year monthly average.
Manhattan condo sales prices were essentially unchanged in October, falling just 1 percent from September, but remain 10 percent above year-ago levels, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index.
Reflecting the traditionally slower winter months, the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast predicts condo prices will fall 2.4 percent in November.

Contract activity for Manhattan condos picked up in October as buyers pursued a last push before the typically slower winter season, with pending sales for condos surging 31 percent from September. Sellers also felt the pressure of the impending seasonal slowdown, with Manhattan condo inventory lifting 3 percent from September to the highest supply level in 2 years. Condo sales prices, however, remained relatively unchanged, falling just 1 percent from the prior month, according to the October StreetEasy® Manhattan Condo Market Report^i.

"October is the last stop for buyers before the winter months put a chill on home sales, which sellers and buyers appeared to take advantage of this year with boosts in both inventory and contract activity," said StreetEasy Data Scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "Despite recent gains, we're not out of the inventory slump yet, which is the main culprit keeping condo prices stubbornly high. With expectations of another colder-than-normal winter season in the New York region, it's unlikely that Manhattan's inventory shortage will be solved before the end of this year."

The total number of condos listed on the market in October rose 3 percent from September, an expected increase that occurs leading up to winter. Inventory was 10.5 percent above year-ago levels, and reached the greatest monthly supply since October 2012. Despite the encouraging gains in inventory, the market is still experiencing historically low supply. October condo inventory was nearly 9 percent below the 5-year monthly average for Manhattan and is expected to fall further during the winter months.

Amidst seasonal inventory gains, pending sales in October jumped 31 percent from September and were 8 percent above year-ago levels (see Figure 1). Condos that entered into contract spent a median of 49 days on the marketⁱⁱ, 10 days fewer than September and 18 days fewer than this time last year. At the previous market peak (September 2007), condos spent 64 days on the market before they entered into contract.

According to the StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI)ⁱⁱⁱ, Manhattan condo prices fell by 1 percent since September, the second consecutive month of modest declines. Condo prices remain nearly 10 percent higher than prices in October 2013 and are 7.5 percent higher than the previous market peak in September 2007. Reflecting the traditionally slower winter months, the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast^iv predicts condo price growth will fall in November, falling 2.4 percent from October.

Figure 1

The full report, including a neighborhood breakdown of StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report data and additional analysis, can be viewed at streeteasy.com/market/reports.

About StreetEasy:

StreetEasy is New York City's leading real estate marketplace on mobile and the Web, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages throughout New York City and the major NYC metropolitan area. StreetEasy adds layers of deep, proprietary data and useful search tools that help consumers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, as well as Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons. The company launched in 2006 and was acquired by Zillow, Inc. in August 2013.

ⁱ The StreetEasy Manhattan Condo Market Report is a monthly overview of the Manhattan condo real estate market. The report data is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers and real estate brokerages for all five major submarkets within Manhattan, with most metrics dating back to 1995. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. For more information, visit streeteasy.com/market/reports. StreetEasy also tracks data for the five boroughs within New York City.

ⁱⁱ Median days on market measures the number of days from the original listing on StreetEasy to when it enters into contract. After a buyer enters a contract on a unit, it is pulled from the market and is no longer available to other buyers - creating a logical end point to "days on market."

ⁱⁱⁱ The StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI) is a monthly index that tracks changes in sales prices of condo homes in Manhattan. The Index uses a repeat-sales method of comparing the sales prices of the same prices since January 1995. Given this methodology, the Index captures the true change in condo value and controls for the varying composition of condo homes sold in a given month. Data on arms-length sales of condo homes is sourced from the New York City Department of Finance. The Index is calculated monthly and is indexed to January 2000 with a baseline value of 100.

^iv The StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast (SECPF) predicts the change in Manhattan condo sale prices one month out from the current reported period. By incorporating the StreetEasy Condo Price Index, StreetEasy's comprehensive database of listing prices and days on market - two leading indicators to future condo prices - we are able to accurately forecast next month's condo prices before the release of publicly recorded sales data.

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SOURCE StreetEasy