Manhattan Luxury Market Continues to Lag, While Lower End Remains Competitive

• Manhattan's median resale price growth continued to slow, increasing only 2.9 percent year-over-year to $975,017.
• Median resale price for the least expensive homes in Manhattan grew 3.9 percent from last year, compared to flat sales price growth among luxury homes.
• Low inventory and high demand fueled rising prices for Manhattan's lowest-priced homes, with inventory declining 25.9 percent year-over-year. Inventory across all other price segments remained flat.
• Brooklyn's median resale price rose 7.3 percent from last year to $549,995, led by a 24.9 percent price increase in East Brooklyn.
• Price growth is expected to continue to slow over the next 12 months in both boroughs, with slight declines predicted in the Downtown Manhattan and Prospect Park submarkets.

Buyers looking for lower-priced homes in Manhattan face the biggest hurdles this shopping season. A significant decline in inventory amid high demand kept prices rising for Manhattan's least expensive homes last month. Manhattan's overall median resale price grew only 2.9 percent year-over-year to $975,017, the lowest annual increase since February 2010, according to the April 2016 StreetEasy® Market Reportsⁱ. 

After months of lagging luxury home prices, almost all other segments of the Manhattan market are following suit, indicating a much larger market-wide slowdown. Driven by an oversupply of high-end units, the median resale price of luxury homes in Manhattan has remained flat or declined every month since October 2015, according to the StreetEasy Price Indicesⁱⁱ.  By contrast, the median resale price of the least expensive homes in Manhattan increased 3.9 percent over the last year. Enduring price growth among lower-priced homes was due in large part to a significant decline in inventory. The number of homes in the bottom segment of the market declined by 25.9 percent since last April, while the inventory of homes priced above that segment remained the same year-over-year.ⁱⁱⁱ

"Manhattan inventory is top-heavy," said StreetEasy data scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "The market remains flooded with luxury properties and short on moderately and lower-priced homes that many New York buyers are looking for. Until Manhattan's market regains equilibrium, we expect heightened competition at lower price points to drive overall growth despite recent declines at the luxury tier."

Lower inventory is leading to greater competition and rising prices in areas where buyers can seek out relatively affordable units. Within Manhattan, Upper Manhattan's median resale price remained the lowest but continued to rise significantly more than all other Manhattan submarkets, increasing by 11.3 percent from last year to $646,050. In Brooklyn, the overall median resale price increased 7.3 percent from last year to $549,995. This increase was due primarily to outstanding growth in the East and South Brooklyn submarkets, where prices remain low compared to the rest of the borough, despite double-digit increases since last April. The median resale price in East Brooklyn increased 24.9 percent from last year to $485,912, and 11.5 percent in South Brooklyn $413,335.

According to the StreetEasy Price Forecasts^iv, price growth in both boroughs will continue to slow over the next 12 months, with slight price declines anticipated in Downtown Manhattan and Prospect Park. In Manhattan, the median resale price is expected to rise only 1.4 percent throughout the year, compared to 2.9 percent growth seen over the last 12 months, according to the StreetEasy Price Indices. Upper Manhattan will continue to lead the borough, but with just 7.5 percent forecasted price growth. In Brooklyn, the median resale price is expected to rise 4.7 percent, compared to 7.3 percent over the last 12 months. East Brooklyn, however, is expected to continue with double-digit growth at a forecasted 16.6 percent increase.

The complete StreetEasy Market Reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn with additional analysis, neighborhood data and graphics can be viewed at streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports.

About StreetEasy:
StreetEasy is New York City's leading local real estate marketplace on mobile and the web, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages throughout New York City and the major NYC metropolitan area. StreetEasy adds layers of proprietary data and useful search tools to help home shoppers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, as well as Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons.

Launched in 2006, StreetEasy is based in the Flatiron neighborhood of Manhattan. StreetEasy is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z and ZG).

StreetEasy is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

ⁱ The StreetEasy Market Reports are a monthly overview of the Manhattan and Brooklyn sales and rental markets. Every three months, a quarterly analysis is published. The report data is aggregated from public recorded sales and listings data from real estate brokerages that provide comprehensive coverage of Manhattan and Brooklyn, with most metrics dating back to 1995 in Manhattan and 2005 in Brooklyn. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. For more information, visit http://streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports/. StreetEasy tracks data for all five boroughs within New York City, but currently only produces reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn.

ⁱⁱ Median resale prices are measured by the StreetEasy Price Indices. Also referred to as the StreetEasy Manhattan Price Index (MPI) and StreetEasy Brooklyn Price Index (BPI), the metrics are monthly indices that track changes in resale prices of condo, co-op, and townhouse units. Each index uses a repeat-sales method of comparing the sales prices of the same properties since January 1995 in Manhattan and January 2005 in Brooklyn. Given this methodology, each index accurately captures the change in home prices by controlling for the varying composition of homes sold in a given month. Data on sales of homes is sourced from the New York City Department of Finance. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-price-indices/

ⁱⁱⁱ To track trends in different price segments, StreetEasy divides the StreetEasy Price Index into five price segments, or quintiles: bottom, second, third, fourth, and luxury. The least expensive homes are defined as those included in the bottom two quintiles, which represent homes priced below $1.05 million in Manhattan and below $616,279 in Brooklyn for April 2016. Luxury homes are defined as those above $3.31 million in Manhattan and above $1.33 million in Brooklyn for April 2016.

^iv The Manhattan Price Forecast and the Brooklyn Price Forecast predict the change in resale prices 12 months out from the current reported period. Each forecast incorporates the Price Index for each borough as well as a mix of fundamental market factors including: historical recorded sales price, household income, population, and taxes.

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SOURCE StreetEasy

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