Mathematical Model Shows 97.8% Reduction in Simulated Mpox Infections Under a Four-Intervention Strategy

MAKASSAR, Indonesia, Aug. 31, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- As Mpox continues to pose a public health challenge, identifying effective and efficient ways to control its transmission remains important. A mathematical model-based study by Professor Kasbawati and her team from Hasanuddin University, Indonesia, suggests that combining vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and educational campaigns could substantially reduce infections and provide a cost-effective approach to outbreak control. The study was published in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals provides an efficient, adaptable, and cost-effective framework for public healthcare system.

To explore how Mpox transmission could be controlled, the researchers developed and analyzed a mathematical model between humans and rodents, dividing each population into distinct infection stages. The model also accounted for asymptomatic human infections and latent infections in rodents to capture additional transmission pathways. Model simulations tested four interventions: vaccination, treatment, quarantine, and educational campaigns. Vaccination was modeled to reduce susceptibility, treatment to support recovery and reduce infectiousness, quarantine to limit opportunities for transmission, and education to encourage protective behavior.

The results showed that the full-control strategy, combining all four interventions, produced the greatest reduction in simulated infections. Compared with a scenario without intervention, the combined strategy reduced the infections by approximately 97.85%. It was also identified as the most cost-effective strategy in the study's iterative cost-effectiveness analysis.

The model further suggested that different interventions could play complementary roles during an outbreak. Quarantine and educational campaigns were most intensive during the early phase, helping to rapidly suppress transmission, while vaccination and treatment provided continued support over a longer period.

"Our findings highlight the potential value of a coordinated, multi-layered approach to Mpox control rather than relying on a single intervention," notes Prof. Kasbawati.

The model analysis considered two equilibrium states: an Mpox-free state, where transmission dies out, and an endemic state, where Mpox persists in rodents. The observations suggest that rodents may serve as a continuous viral reservoir, highlighting the importance of controlling transmission in rodent populations for an effective long-term management of Mpox. "Our research provides a framework for evaluating how public health measures can work together to rapidly suppress outbreaks, reduce their impact, and limit longer-term transmission," concludes Prof. Kasbawati.

Reference
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2026.118269

Media Contact:
Prof. Dr. Kasbawati
+62 812 5502 7575
[email protected]

SOURCE Hasanuddin University