Neptune Flood Research Group Releases Analysis Confronting the Growing Flood Risk in Texas

Largest private flood insurance provider highlights increasing flood risk as coverage declines

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., May 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Neptune Flood has released its latest research issue exploring the accelerating flood risk across Texas and the widespread underinsurance that threatens to magnify its impact. With more than 2.1 million properties projected to face flood exposure over the next 30 years, and over 200,000 expected to flood with near certainty, Texas is facing a critical insurance shortfall. Urgent action is needed to close this gap and strengthen the state's resilience.

Key Findings in Texas

• According to the First Street Foundation, of the 2.1 million properties at risk, 1.15 million face at least a 1% annual chance of flooding.
• By 2050, the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) expects mass migration, development trends, and climate intensification to add 2.6 million more people and 740,000 new buildings into high flood risk areas.
• FEMA maps identify only 860,000 total at-risk properties, highlighting the mapping inadequacy.
• Nearly 50% of all active National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies in Texas are Pre-FIRM homes (older structures more vulnerable to loss).
• Since 2005, over 52% of NFIP claims in Texas have occurred outside FEMA-designated high-risk flood zones.

The Cost of Inaction

• Texas ranks second nationally in NFIP claims, with over 150,000 claims and $11.6 billion paid over the past decade.
• Harris County accounts for nearly 50% of all NFIP payouts statewide, yet over 78% of homes remain uninsured.
• According to TWDB, the state has identified over $54.5 billion in needed flood risk reduction solutions, yet only $10.6 billion in available funding has been identified.

Texas's Widening Coverage Gap

• Only 7% of residential properties statewide have flood insurance.
• In major inland metros like Dallas, Denton, and Bexar, coverage rates remain below 1% despite repeated flood events.
• Even in FEMA-designated high-risk zones, only 28% of residential buildings have flood insurance coverage.
• Since the launch of Risk Rating 2.0 (FEMA's new property-level pricing model) in 2021, average flood insurance premiums in Texas have risen 35%, while the number of buildings covered has dropped 30%.
• As rates transition to full-risk pricing over the coming decades, affordability concerns grow, with premiums consuming an average of 4-5% of household income in some counties.

"Texas faces a clear and growing flood risk, yet millions of properties remain without adequate insurance coverage," said Matt Duffy, President of Neptune. "This report underscores the scale of the challenge and the need to improve both awareness and access to flood protection. As flood risk continues to rise due to climate change and development patterns, and with an active 2025 hurricane season on the horizon, addressing these gaps remains a critical priority for homeowners, insurers, and policymakers alike."

Texas stands at a critical juncture. The convergence of outdated flood maps, rapid development, climate change, and declining insurance coverage has created a perfect storm of risk and vulnerability. Addressing this crisis will require a coordinated effort - leveraging better data, smarter policy, public-private collaboration, and expanded private flood insurance coverage. This report aims to inform that effort and provide a roadmap for strengthening resilience in the face of growing flood threats.

Click here to view the complete analysis.

About Neptune Flood

Neptune Flood is the largest private flood insurance provider in the United States, revolutionizing the industry with AI-driven underwriting and machine learning technology. Neptune simplifies the flood insurance process, offering instant, affordable, and comprehensive coverage in minutes—without the delays and complexities of traditional insurance. Operating in 49 states and Washington, D.C., with Alaska launching soon, Neptune is committed to closing the flood insurance gap and making coverage accessible nationwide.

SOURCE Neptune Flood