New Ballotpedia Report Finds Overall Competitiveness Rises in State Legislative Races

Contested primaries, open seats and redistricting generate more competition even as major party matchups in general elections continue to decline

MIDDLETON, Wis., Oct. 19, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Ballotpedia's analysis of the 6,278 legislative elections occurring on Nov. 8 found that overall competitiveness rose compared to 2018 and 2012 – the last time an election followed redistricting.

Ballotpedia's 2022 State Legislative Competitiveness Report found that the overall rise in competitiveness is due to incumbents facing more primary challenges and the presence of more open seat contests. At the same time, there was a decline in head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates in the general election.

According to the report's author, Ballotpedia Staff Writer Doug Kronaizl, the data shows that "we shouldn't count on November always being the big show. If major party competition continues to decline, and primary challenges grow, we could expect to see more and more races decided in primaries."

"This cycle isn't the most competitive because of the November general elections. It's the most competitive in spite of those elections," Kronaizl said.

The factors driving increased competition — more primaries and more open seats — mean "legislatures are going to look very different next year."

"With decade-high rates of retirements and primary defeats, we already know newcomers will represent around one-quarter of all seats up for election, and that's not even including what might happen in November," Kronaizl said.

Kronaizl said the report also shows the influence redistricting has on competition. "We always knew redistricting changes how general elections might pan out. But with this report, now we also have data showing the effect it has at other points in the election cycle. More seats are open, guaranteeing more newcomers, and more incumbents are facing and losing to challengers. We saw this in 2012 and we are seeing it again this year."

For the seventh election cycle in a row, Michigan's legislative elections are the most competitive in the country and, for the fourth cycle in a row, Massachusetts has the least competitive legislative races.

Ballotpedia used three criteria to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents ran.
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Seats with major party competition – where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These figures were then averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index. Each state was assigned a score ranging from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

Kronaizl said these criteria put the focus on the amount of choice voters have, not on how close elections will be. "This report analyzes the entire election cycle from filing deadlines to primaries to the general election," Kronaizl said. "The more choices voters get to make throughout that process, the more competitive the process is."

Ballotpedia's election teams will be publishing their reporting and analysis on Ballotpedia.org, in Ballotpedia's flagship newsletter, "The Daily Brew," and at its upcoming Election Analysis Hub.

Click here to read Ballotpedia's 2022 State Legislative Competitiveness Report

Ballotpedia — the encyclopedia of American politics — is America's most trusted source of unbiased information on politics, elections and policy. Founded in 2007, Ballotpedia has grown from a small group of dedicated volunteers to an essential resource for voters, media and researchers. Ballotpedia is a nonprofit organization dedicated to serving the public interest in creating an educated, engaged electorate and building a strong, healthy democracy. For free access to more than 370,000 professionally authored articles, visit Ballotpedia.org.

SOURCE Ballotpedia