New SBI and QuadSci Study Exposes Costly SaaS Retention Crisis--And How AI Can Predict Who Churns Next

Analysis of 9,100 Accounts and 160 Billion Data Points Reveals Six Usage Patterns That Determine Renewal and Expansion Outcomes

DALLAS, Oct. 22, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite record spending on customer success, most SaaS companies are still losing ground on retention. A new study from SBI Growth Advisory and QuadSci uncovers the behavioral patterns behind those losses and shows how AI can now forecast renewal and expansion decisions with 90% accuracy up to a year in advance.

In the report "Engineering SaaS Account Growth: From Guesswork to Predictable Growth," researchers used SBI Wayforge™ to analyze 160 billion telemetry data points across 9,100 accounts. The analysis showed that solution usage alone accounts for 80% of commercial outcomes—far outweighing pricing, competition, or satisfaction scores.

"This study proves that growth doesn't hinge on luck or loyalty—it hinges on behavior," said Mike Hoffman, CEO of SBI. "For years, SaaS leaders have relied on surveys and sentiment to understand retention. Usage behavior tells the real story, and it can predict commercial outcomes with remarkable precision."

Key findings include:

• NRR is slipping across the industry. Fifty-eight percent of SaaS companies report lower Net Revenue Retention (NRR) than two years ago.
• Usage behavior drives outcomes. The strongest predictor of renewals and expansions is how consistently customers engage with the product, exceeding factors like survey results and pricing.
• Six behavioral patterns forecast commercial results. Power Users, Enthusiastic Adopters, Converts, Explorers, Strugglers, and Disconnected accounts can predict renewal and expansion with 90% accuracy when tracked through AI.
• Pattern-based action improves performance. Early adopters of this model have achieved an average five percent improvement in NRR while reducing time spent on low-impact interventions.

"The SaaS industry has been sitting on a goldmine of telemetry data without the AI to make sense of it," said Dan Harmeson, Co-CEO of QuadSci. "This research shows that the signals for growth and churn are already there. The companies that act on them now will set the pace for 2026."

Deanne Branham, Chief Customer Officer at Reltio, added: "These AI insights are now built directly into Reltio's Intelligent 360 platform, giving both our go-to-market teams and Reltio's Agentic AI a clear view of how customers engage with the platform—enabling us to support them more effectively."

Methodology

The study examined 160 billion telemetry data points tied to 9,100 customer accounts, tracking usage behavior across the full lifecycle. Researchers also analyzed more than 40,000 financial documents from 300 public subscription companies to benchmark NRR trends.

About SBI Growth Advisory

SBI is the Growth Intelligence firm redefining how companies grow in the era of AI. The firm helps CEOs and private equity leaders turn go-to-market complexity into clarity and clarity into confident growth. Powered by the SBI Wayforge™ Growth Intelligence Platform, SBI connects strategy, operations, talent, and data to deliver measurable, profitable growth engineered with precision.

About QuadSci

QuadSci is a provider of AI Products for B2B Software GTM teams. QuadSci applies AI to product usage data by processing tens of billions of telemetry events to capture the behavioral patterns of customers, allowing the analysis of customer behavior and usage patterns. QuadSci's AI products identify patterns across these billions of telemetry events as well as tens of thousands of customer engagement events to predict growth, churn, and contraction up to 12 months in advance with 90% accuracy. QuadSci was recognized as "Machine Learning Company of the Year" in the 8th annual AI Breakthrough Awards.

SOURCE SBI Growth