New Study: 500,000 Americans with Diabetes Projected to Lose Medicaid Coverage by 2034

ARLINGTON, Va., Aug. 3, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A new study released by the American Diabetes Association^® (ADA) today estimates that, absent policy change, nearly 500,000 Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes will lose healthcare coverage by 2034. According to the research—commissioned by the ADA from Health Management Associates—coverage losses will disproportionately affect Americans who live in rural communities and states that expanded their Medicaid programs following the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA). Under current law, 1.5 million Medicaid enrollees with diabetes who maintain coverage through the program will be subject to new cost-sharing obligations by 2029. Average cost-sharing for these individuals with diabetes could add up to $1,000 per year in new out-of-pocket costs in some states.

"The extreme loss of healthcare coverage we're anticipating among the diabetes population as a result of recent changes to the Medicaid program will have a devastating impact on people with diabetes and lasting repercussions across the U.S. healthcare system—driven by increased hospitalizations, complications from diabetes, and emergency room care," said Lisa Murdock, the ADA's chief advocacy officer. "For half a million people with diabetes, losing access to Medicaid means losing access to healthcare professionals, diabetes education and management, affordable insulin, and technology critical to blood glucose management directly affecting their health."

The study also assesses changes to the ACA—most notably the recent expiration of enhanced premium tax credits—that could lead to interrupted coverage in the individual market for 654,000 people with diabetes. Seventy percent of these ACA coverage losses are expected in the southern United States where rates of diabetes are higher than the rest of the country.

As a result of these findings, the ADA is urging the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to broaden its proposed definition of "medical frailty" so Medicaid beneficiaries with diabetes who are unable to work do not lose healthcare coverage. The ADA also urges states to pursue mechanisms to maintain Medicaid coverage and access for people with chronic disease. Evidence has shown that healthcare coverage is critical to living healthily with diabetes and reducing individual and healthcare system costs. Additionally, as Medicaid coverage losses drive patients to the individual market to find a new plan, the ADA urges Congress to pass the Improving Needed Safeguards for Users of Lifesaving Insulin Now (INSULIN) Act recently approved by the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee to limit cost-sharing for insulin in commercial insurance plans to $35 per month.

About the American Diabetes Association
The American Diabetes Association (ADA) is the nation's leading voluntary health organization fighting to end diabetes and helping people thrive. For 86 years, the ADA has driven discovery and research to treat, manage, and prevent diabetes while working relentlessly for a cure. Through advocacy, program development, and education we work to improve the quality of life for the over 155 million Americans living with diabetes or prediabetes. To learn more or to get involved, visit us at diabetes.org or call 1-800-DIABETES (800-342-2383). Join us in the fight on Facebook (American Diabetes Association), Spanish Facebook (Asociación Americana de la Diabetes), LinkedIn (American Diabetes Association), and Instagram (@AmDiabetesAssn). To learn more about how we are advocating for everyone affected by diabetes, visit us on X (@AmDiabetesAssn).     

Contact: Virginia Cramer, (703) 253-4927
[email protected]

SOURCE American Diabetes Association