New Study Finds Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Merger Could Deliver Up to $5.8 Billion a Year in Economic and Health Benefits

Analysis puts a dollar value on moving freight by rail instead of truck, including about 94 premature deaths avoided each year

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Moving freight by rail instead of truck saves money, and it saves lives. A new study by economist, impact investing specialist, and founder of Creative Investment Research William Michael Cunningham puts a number on both, estimating that the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger could generate $4.2 billion to $5.8 billion a year in combined economic, climate and public health benefits.

The analysis, Socio-Economic Benefits of the Proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Freight Merger, goes beyond the railroads' own projection of $3.5 billion in annual shipper savings. Starting from the companies' estimates that the merger would shift about 2.1 million truckloads a year from highways to rail and cut carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 3.8 million metric tons, it calculates the dollar value of the cleaner air, reduced climate damage and avoided deaths that come with taking those trucks off the road.

"The merger's public-interest value can be quantified," the study concludes. It estimates $3.5 billion in annual shipper and logistics savings, $500 million to $1.6 billion in annual health benefits from reduced diesel pollution and $194 million to $722 million in annual climate benefits. Over 10 years, the combined benefits carry a present value of $35.8 billion to $49.7 billion, assuming a 3% discount rate.

"This merger should be evaluated not only by what it may save shippers, but by what it could mean for families living and working near major freight corridors. Cleaner air, fewer heavy trucks on local roads and lower exposure to diesel emissions have real economic value. Those gains could be especially important for Black, minority and lower-income communities that face disproportionate transportation-related environmental burdens. The public-interest test should require that these projected benefits are documented, delivered and shared."

— William Michael Cunningham, Economist and Founder, Creative Investment Research

Communities near freight corridors would see the most direct gains through fewer truck trips, cleaner air, less congestion and less noise. In Chicago, which handles roughly 1 million drayage shipments a year, eliminating 25% to 50% of those trips would mean 250,000 to 500,000 fewer local truck trips and about 5 million to 15 million fewer truck-miles annually.

On public health, the study's screening estimate finds that fewer diesel trucks on the road would prevent about 94 premature deaths a year, with a range of 47 to 141, based on avoided truck mileage and national diesel health data. The study calls those figures conservative: it assumes 1,000 avoided truck-miles per converted load, while the companies' published materials imply about 1,700.

The study notes that national and corridor-level benefits can be measured with accepted benefit-cost methods, while neighborhood-level effects and more precise health estimates would require route, terminal and emissions-exposure data.

About the Study

Socio-Economic Benefits of the Proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Freight Merger was prepared by William Michael Cunningham of Creative Investment Research. It examines potential economic, environmental, health and community benefits associated with the proposed merger.

SOURCE Creative Investment Research