Novel Agents Are Set To Reverse The Decline In The Osteoporosis Market

BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 21, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group finds that, according to the Osteoporosis Pharmacor report, published December 2015, the osteoporosis market is expected to grow in value towards the end of the coming decade, driven largely by the launches of a number of novel treatments, as well as an aging population. The Osteoporosis Pharmacor report forecasts several novel brands will achieve blockbuster status by 2024 and reverse the current market decline. Despite the prominent position of generic bisphosphonates in osteoporosis treatment, the expected launch and uptake of a novel cathepsin K inhibitor, a sclerostin inhibitor and a parathyroid hormone analogue, all with demonstrated efficacy in reducing fracture risk, will stimulate growth of the osteoporosis market in the coming decade.

Interviewed thought leaders consider Merck's odanacatib, Amgen/UCB's romosozumab, and Radius Health's abaloparatide the most exciting therapies that will emerge over the next 10 years. However, despite some notorious safety concerns associated with bisphosphonates, this class will continue to dominate current and future prescriptions for osteoporosis. According to analyses of U.S. longitudinal patient-level claims data in the Treatment Algorithms: Osteoporosis report, published October 2015, bisphosphonates are the cornerstone of first line treatment in the United States, and are prescribed to 69 percent of newly-diagnosed patients as a first line of therapy. The high level of usage reflects the wide variety of dosing formulations and frequencies, a twenty-year history of managing osteoporosis symptoms, and the recently expanded, and now widespread availability of generic treatment options. 

Other insights from Decision Resources Group's Pharmacor report entitled "Osteoporosis – 2015":

• The parathyroid hormone receptor modulator, abaloparatide, with convenient self-administration, no requirement for refrigeration and greater reductions in the incidence of vertebral fractures than teriparatide (subcutaneous formulation), is in development in both injectable and transdermal patch formulations. The transdermal patch in particular is garnering much enthusiasm due to its convenience and short application time. We expect abaloparatide to become the market-leading osteoporosis therapy by 2024.
• Odanacatib is a first-in-class cathepsin K inhibitor and is expected to launch in 2017. As an oral, once-weekly therapy with strong efficacy, odanacatib has the potential for strong uptake.
• Experts consider the sclerostin inhibitor, romosozumab, to be one of the most exciting agents that will emerge during the coming decade based on its potential to stimulate healthy bone formation. As a novel anabolic agent, romosozumab has demonstrated impressive efficacy, with increases in bone strength greater than with teriparatide. Despite its parenteral dosage, its robust efficacy and relatively infrequent dosing schedule will drive this treatment to blockbuster sales.
• The dominance of generics in the treatment algorithm, combined with continuing generic erosion, will continue to impact the osteoporosis market. Prescribing restrictions, frequently relegating branded therapies to later lines of treatment, mean that access to therapy remains a major barrier to uptake for novel agents. Strict reimbursement hurdles, particularly in more cost-conscious markets, will also limit the market.

Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Gideon Heap:

• "Against a backdrop of continued generic erosion, the declining osteoporosis market is set to find a new wave of growth driven by innovative, premium-priced therapies launching over the next five years. Growth of these emerging therapies will more than offset the losses to generics during the next 10 years."

Comments from Decision Resources Group Analyst Alexandra Hemsley:

• "The launches of a number of novel osteoporosis therapies, particularly those representing novel drug classes, will energize the osteoporosis market, and lead to changes in the treatment algorithm. The emergence of novel anabolic therapies with the potential to generate new bone mass, in addition to reducing the fracture risk, is highly anticipated by interviewed thought leaders."

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