Only 54% of Consumers Trust That Black Friday Discounts Are Lower Than Normal as Promotion Fatigue Grows

• BCG's Annual Black Friday Survey Finds 1 in 5 Consumers Actively Distrust Advertised Discounts
• 22% Plan to Spend Less or Skip Year-End Sales Events
• Retailer Reputation and Transparent Pricing Rank Among the Highest Factors for Building Consumer Trust; Influencer Recommendations Rank Last
• Use of Social Media as a Shopping Inspiration Source Falls 9 Points to 46%, While AI Rises Across All Surveyed Countries

BOSTON, Nov. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Only 54% of consumers trust that advertised Black Friday prices are genuinely lower than usual, and one in five actively distrust them, according to a new survey from Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

Promotion fatigue is also growing, with 22% of consumers planning to spend less or skip year-end sales events because they believe discounts are available all the time.

Despite growing skepticism around promotions, consumers haven't raised the bar for what constitutes a good deal. The expected minimum discount for a good deal eased to about 30% (versus 32% in 2025).

These are among the findings of BCG's sixth annual Black Friday Consumer Study, based on a survey of 10,220 consumers across ten countries. The report, titled For Year-End Sales Events, Trust Is the New Currency, examines shopping expectations and behaviors ahead of Singles' Day, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.

"Shoppers no longer take Black Friday discounts at face value. Nearly half are unconvinced that prices are actually lower," said Nate Shenck, a BCG managing director and senior partner, and coauthor of the report. "Retailers can't discount their way past that. The question this season is how to earn shoppers' trust."

Credibility and Proof Build Trust, Persuasion Does Not

BCG determined the factors that build consumer trust using a net trust score (calculated as the share of consumers who say a factor increases their trust in a deal, minus the share who say it decreases it):

• Retailer reputation and money-back guarantees ranked highest, each with a net trust score of 65%
• Verified purchase reviews also ranked among the top trust builders (59%), followed by clear comparisons between regular and discounted prices (58%)
• At the bottom of the ranking, real-time scarcity messages scored just 8%, AI-generated review summaries 4%, and influencer recommendations only 3%

AI Is Displacing Social Media as an Inspiration Channel

Social media as an inspiration source for consumers declined nine percentage points to 46%, falling in every market surveyed, whereas AI as an inspiration source increased across all ten markets.

Planned AI usage reached 56% of shoppers this year, up eight points from 2025. Around 86% of users find it helpful, and 78% say it raises their likelihood of completing a purchase.

Consumers trust AI most for comparing prices across retailers (39%) and comparing product features (37%). Transactional tasks, such as filling in checkout details, are still developing as a common use case.

"Shoppers facing promotion fatigue are turning to AI to do the work of finding and comparing deals. AI is already beginning to replace influencers as a go-to source for inspiration," said Jessica Distler, a BCG managing director and partner, and coauthor of the report. "That means retailers need to think as carefully about how their offers are found and verified as they do about the discounts themselves."

Download the report here:
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2026/trust-matters-year-end-sales-events

Media Contact:
Kendall Kosten
[email protected] 

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SOURCE Boston Consulting Group (BCG)