Over 80% of Financial Advisors Expect Stock Market to Decline Further

VENICE, Fla., April 7, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- An overwhelming majority of financial advisors believe that the stock market declines have yet to reach a bottom, according to a poll of U.S. advisors conducted by Ned Davis Research (NDR).¹ 81% of advisors said stocks will go lower than when the S&P 500 hit 2,237 points on March 23, -34% down from its peak on February 19, 2020.

Of those surveyed, over half expect a new low to be made by May 31, 2020, with one-in-four anticipating the market to bottom at a later date. Only 19% of advisors believe the low had been made by March 23^rd. The pessimism in the financial advisor community aligns with NDR's perspective that stocks are likely to see more volatility until they reach their bottom.

According to Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, there are four stages to the bottoming process: 1) oversold 2) rally 3) retest, and 4) breadth thrust. The three-day rally following March 23 likely signaled the end to a waterfall decline, meaning that the market advanced to Stage 2. The market can bounce between Stage 2 and 3 several times, until it sees a successful retest with less total volume, less downside volume, fewer stocks making new lows, and fewer stocks below their moving averages.

"The volatility we've seen over the past few weeks will make it into history books, but it's likely we haven't seen the end of it," said Ed Clissold. "We'll remain cautious on U.S. equities until breadth thrusts indicate that the market is recovering."

Pessimism among financial advisors could be driven by their outlook on the limitations of fiscal policy; 75% believe the fiscal stimulus will only ease some of the damage done to the U.S. economy. A small minority, 7%, believe stimulus won't have any positive impact or could lead to negative outcomes, such as inflation.

Alejandra Grindal, Senior International Economist at Ned Davis Research said, "The U.S. government's fiscal response is tailored to this specific crisis, with a greater emphasis on loan guarantees and unemployment support that reflects the extreme drop in economic activity. However, it will take some time to implement and we may need more stimulus down the road."  

Brian Sanborn, Senior Vice President of Wealth Management Solutions at Ned Davis Research, adds: "Given the continued uncertainty, it's no surprise that advisors are cautious about deploying their clients' assets back into stocks. Until the dust settles, we are likely to see greater allocations to cash and less risky assets."

The poll was conducted on March 26, 2020 with over 750 U.S. financial advisors.

About Ned Davis Research (NDR)
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NDR uses the weight of the evidence and a 360-degree approach to build up to market insights. When we say "evidence," we mean processing millions of data series to fuel a historical perspective, building proprietary indicators and models, and calming investors in a world full of bull/bear news hype and hysteria. We believe that no client is too big or too small to benefit from NDR's insights.

In 1980, Ned Davis founded a new investment research group based on his fundamental belief that making money is more important than being right. Today, we are widely recognized for concise commentary and unbiased views. NDR is headquartered in Venice, Florida, with offices in New York, Atlanta, Boston, San Francisco, London and Hong Kong.

Media Contact: Hod Klein, Ned Davis Research, [email protected]

¹ Over 750 U.S. financial advisors were polled online by Ned Davis Research on March 26, 2020.

SOURCE Ned Davis Research (NDR)