Over Half of Americans Say They Would Be Unlikely to Vote for President Obama if Election Were Held Today

The President loses all of his bin Laden death approval bounce

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Jun 23, 2011, 04:12 ET

NEW YORK, June 23, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- In May, after announcing the death of Osama bin Laden, President Obama's approval rating went up 8 points from the previous month. One month later his ratings are back to what they were in April – 38% of Americans give him positive ratings for the job he is doing and 62% give President Obama negative marks. While it is probably not surprising that over nine in ten Republicans (93%) give the President negative ratings, two-thirds of Independents (65%) and one-third of Democrats (32%) also do.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,163 adults surveyed online between June 13 and 20, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Re-election vote

Looking at the President's re-election is also cause for concern in the White House and campaign headquarters in Chicago. Early in May 46% of Americans said, if the election for President were to be held today, they would be likely to vote for President Obama and 47% said they would be unlikely. Later in May that number dropped a little and 43% said they would be likely to vote for the current president and 49% said they would be unlikely to do so. Currently, over half of Americans (52%) say they would be unlikely to vote for President Obama if the election were to be held today and 41% say they would be likely to vote for him.

Looking at his base, while three-quarters of Democrats (74%) and seven in ten Liberals (70%) say they are likely to vote for him, 21% of both Democrats and Liberals say they are unlikely to do so. Among the key swing group of Independents, over half (56%) say they are unlikely to vote for the President if the election were held today and 37% say they would vote for him. Moderates are split evenly with 47% saying they would be likely to vote for President Obama if the election were held today and 47% say they would be unlikely to do so.

Congress's approval and the direction of the country

For Congress, their job approval continues to be very bad. Just one in ten Americans (11%) give Congress positive ratings for the overall job they are doing while nine in ten (89%) give them negative marks. And this disapproval crosses all party lines. Whether it is 84% of Democrats, 90% of Independents or 94% of Republicans, it is clear that Congress needs to prove something to Americans before these numbers get better.

This general sense of dissatisfaction with the way things are going is also seen in how Americans view the direction of the country overall. Over two-thirds (68%) of U.S. adults say things in the country have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track while one-third (32%) say they are going in the right direction. This is down from mid May when 38% of Americans believed things were going in the right direction and 62% thought they were off on the wrong track.

So What?

Granted it is over one year until the actual election and, at the moment, there is no clear front-runner for who the Republican challenger will be. There is so much that will happen in the next 16 months and these numbers will go up and down many times. But, as the distress of the economy lingers and as the unemployment rate stays high, one thing is clear to the re-election campaign leadership – they need to show that their candidate understands the priorities are here at home. Announcing the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan was one step in that direction.

TABLE 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2011	June	38	62
	May 19th	45	55
	May 9th	46	54
	April	38	62
	March	39	61
	Feb.	42	58
	Jan.	44	56
2010	Dec.	36	64
	Nov.	38	62
	Oct.	37	63
	Sept.	38	62
	Aug.	40	60
	June	39	61
	May	42	58
	April	41	59
	March	41	59
	Jan.	40	60
2009	Dec.	41	59
	Nov.	43	57
	Oct.	45	55
	Sept.	49	51
	Aug.	51	49
	June	54	46
	May	59	41
	April	58	42
	March	55	45

*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY PARTY & IDEOLOGY "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	38	7	68	35	11	43	68
Excellent	9	1	17	6	3	7	21
Pretty good	29	6	51	28	8	36	47
NEGATIVE	62	93	32	65	89	57	32
Only fair	29	27	24	33	26	33	25
Poor	33	66	7	33	63	24	7

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY REGION, EDUCATION & GENDER "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Region				Education
	Total	East	Midwest	South	West	H.S. or less	Some college	College grad	Post grad
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	38	38	44	32	43	29	35	50	56
Excellent	9	11	11	6	7	6	8	12	13
Pretty good	29	27	33	25	36	23	27	38	43
NEGATIVE	62	62	56	68	57	71	65	50	44
Only fair	29	32	29	28	29	33	32	22	21
Poor	33	30	27	40	29	38	32	29	23

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4 VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA "If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?" Base: All adults
	Total			Political Party			Political Ideology
	May 9	May 19	June	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	46	43	41	7	74	37	14	47	70
Very likely	33	32	30	3	60	22	9	32	57
Somewhat likely	14	11	11	4	14	15	5	15	13
Unlikely	47	49	52	90	21	56	82	47	21
Somewhat unlikely	7	8	7	8	6	10	5	9	6
Very unlikely	40	41	45	82	15	46	77	37	15
Not at all sure	6	8	6	3	5	7	4	7	9

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING "How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?" Base: All adults
	Total	Political Party
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	11	6	16	10
Excellent	1	1	2	1
Pretty good	10	6	14	9
NEGATIVE	89	94	84	90
Only fair	44	43	48	38
Poor	46	51	36	53

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6 CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – TREND "How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2011	June	11	89
	May 19th	12	88
	May 9th	13	87
	April	8	92
	March	10	90
	February	14	86
	January	16	84
2010	December	11	89
	November	13	87
	October	11	89
	September	13	87
	August	15	85
	June	14	86
	May	15	85
	April	16	84
	March	10	90
	Jan.	16	84
2009	Dec.	17	83
	Oct.	16	84
	Sept.	19	81
	Aug.	22	78
	June	25	75
	March	29	71
2008	October	10	86
	August	18	77
	June	13	83
	February	20	76
2007	December	17	79
	October	20	77
	April	27	69
	February	33	62
2006	September	24	73
	May	18	80
	February	25	71
	January	25	72

*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 7 RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK "Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?" Base: All adults
	TREND	Right Direction	Wrong Track
	TREND	%	%
2011	June	32	68
	May 19th	38	62
	May 9th	39	61
	April	26	74
	March	28	72
	February	36	64
	January	37	63
2010	December	29	71
	November	33	67
	April	39	61
2009	August	46	54
	January	19	72
2008	October	11	83
	February	23	69
2007	December	18	74
	February	29	62
2006	May	24	69
	February	32	59
2005	November	27	68
	January	46	48
2004	September	38	57
	June	35	59
2003	December	35	57
	June	44	51
2002	December	36	57
	June	46	48
2001	December	65	32
	June	43	52
2000	October	50	41
	June	40	51
1999	June	37	55
	March	47	45
1998	December	43	51
	June	48	44
1997	December	39	56
	April	36	55
1996	December	38	50
	June	29	64
1995	December	26	62
	June	24	65
1994	December	29	63
	June	28	65
1993	June	21	70
	March	39	50
1992	June	12	81
	January	20	75
1991	December	17	75
	January	58	32

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between June 13 to 20, 2011 among 2,163 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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Q1205, 1210, 1215, 1218

The Harris Poll® #76, June 23, 2011

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive