Platts' Kingsman Issues Quarterly Sugar Supply, Demand and Balance Estimates Update-May

NEW YORK, May 12, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Sugar producers, undaunted by surplus inventories and declining prices, have continued to add to global sugar supply, pushing the market into a surplus of 3.39 million metric tons raw value (mtrv) from an earlier small deficit for the 2014-15 season (October-September basis), according to the latest quarterly supply, demand and balance estimates released by Kingsman, a sugar analysis and forecasting unit of Platts. The notable shift came from an additional 3.5 million mtrv in global production to 182.6 million mtrv, taking it above the previous record high in 2012-13. Kingsman's earlier January 2015 estimates had seen the market in a deficit of 122,000 mtrv for 2014-15.

"We now see the world in a 3.39-million-mtrv sugar surplus, fueled by higher crush from India, Center-South Brazil and Thailand, which combined, will more than offset the downward revisions we see to China and South Africa production, and give market bulls little hope," said Claudiu Covrig, Kingsman senior agriculture analyst at Platts, a leading global energy and commodities information provider. "The market has been rife with expectations of a return to balance/deficit after four consecutive years in surplus, but these numbers show that getting rid of a stubborn surplus will be harder than some anticipated and a fifth year of oversupply is now likely."

Looking ahead to the 2015-16 season (Oct-Sep basis),  higher Indian production is expected to result in a small global deficit for sugar of 466,000 mtrv, down from a January 2015 forecast of the deficit 5.247 million mtrv, according to Kingsman. Indian production is seen up 3.8 million mtrv to 29.9 million mtrv.

Speaking at Platts' 3rd Annual Kingsman New York City Sugar Industry Luncheon May 12th, Covrig said, "While attention tends to focus on Brazil's key sugar producing Center-South region, India is once again proving it can play a pivotal role influencing the global market. Cane is still more lucrative than other crops, despite the accumulating cane arrears and preliminary data are even showing an increase in the acreage with higher plantings."

"Unless there are major weather events, the long-awaited bull run in sugar remains elusive," Covrig concluded.  

For the full summary of the Platts' Kingsman Quarterly Sugar Supply, Demand and Balance Estimates, click here.

The quarterly estimates are published in the following publications and services, among others:

• Kingsman Daily Sugar Market Report
• Kingsman Weekly Sugar Editorial
• Kingsman Quarterly Sugar Supply & Demand Update

For more information on sugar, sugar price assessments, and biofuels, visit the Kingsman and Platts websites.

About Platts: Founded in 1909, Platts is a leading global provider of energy, petrochemicals, metals and agriculture information and a premier source of benchmark prices for the physical and futures markets.  Platts' news, pricing, analytics, commentary and conferences help customers make better-informed trading and business decisions and help the markets operate with greater transparency and efficiency.  Customers in more than 150 countries benefit from Platts' coverage of the biofuels, carbon emissions, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, metals, nuclear power, petrochemical, shipping and sugar markets.  A division of McGraw Hill Financial (NYSE: MHFI), Platts is based in London with more than 1000 employees in more than 15 offices worldwide. Additional information is available at http://www.platts.com.

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