President Obama Leads Mitt Romney by 9 points and Rick Santorum by 12 points

Ron Paul does best against the President

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Feb 17, 2012, 11:29 ET

NEW YORK, Feb. 17, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- With about ten days to go before the next primaries in the Republican race for the nomination, all four remaining Republicans are losing to President Obama by between 8 and 17 points. As the race narrows down to the final candidate, just half of Americans (51%) say they are satisfied with the choices available to them for President while more than two in five (44%) are not satisfied. Independents are the most dissatisfied with over half (55%) saying they are not satisfied with the choices while two-thirds of Democrats (68%) are satisfied. Republicans are more split as half are satisfied (52%) and 44% are not satisfied. But the Republican satisfaction is soft with just 13% very satisfied and 39% saying they are only somewhat satisfied.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,056 adults surveyed online between February 6 and 13, 2012 by Harris Interactive.

Head to head match-ups

If the presidential election were held today, 46% of Americans would vote for President Obama, 37% would vote for Mitt Romney and 17% are not at all sure. Last month, two in five U.S. adults (43%) said they would vote for President Obama while 39% said they would vote for Mitt Romney. Among Independents, it's a slightly closer race with 43% voting for the President and 37% voting for the former governor and 46% of adults in the 2012 Swing States (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia) would vote for President Obama and 39% would vote for Mitt Romney.

Ron Paul may not be in the fight for front-runner, but he actually makes it a slightly tighter race as 45% of Americans would vote for President Obama and 37% would vote for the Congressman while 18% are not at all sure. Among Independents, Paul is ahead 42% to the President's 40% but in the 2012 Swing States the President is ahead 45% to 41% for Paul.

He may be jockeying for front-runner status but the former Senator from Pennsylvania is more than ten points behind the President. Almost half of Americans would vote for President Obama (47%) while 35% would vote for Rick Santorum and 18% are not at all sure. Among Independents, 44% would vote for President Obama and 35% for Santorum with 20% not at all sure. In the 2012 Swing states, 46% would vote for the President while 40% would vote for Santorum.

Finally, if the election was held today, half of Americans (50%) would vote for President Obama and one-third for Newt Gingrich (33%) with 18% not at all sure. Among Independents, President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 47% to 32% with 20% not at all sure and among people in the 2012 Swing states President Obama leads Newt Gingrich 48% to 36% with 16% not at all sure.

So What?

The Republican primary continues to be a road full of twists and turns and the main benefactor to these constant changing stories is President Obama. In each of these four races the President has expanded his lead. The question is what happens when the primary race is over and the Republicans have decided on a candidate. If that happens quickly, he will have time to make the race close, but the longer the primary goes, the shorter the general election timeframe becomes.

TABLE 1 ROMNEY VS. OBAMA "If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?"
Base: All adults
	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	41	41	43	43	46
Mitt Romney	40	41	40	39	37
Not at all sure	18	18	17	19	17

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2 ROMNEY VS. OBAMA – By Party and Political Philosophy "If the presidential election were held today and these were the two candidates, for whom would you most likely vote?"
Base: All adults
	Total	2012 Swing state	Party ID			Political Philosophy
	Total	2012 Swing state	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Barack Obama	46	46	9	84	43	19	51	78
Mitt Romney	37	39	77	7	37	64	30	10
Not at all sure	17	15	14	9	20	16	19	12