President Obama Would Lose if Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani Was the Nominee

Republican field problem is one of recognition - most are unknown

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Jul 26, 2011, 06:04 ET

NEW YORK, July 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- By this time next summer the Republican candidate who will challenge President Obama will be known but at this point the list of candidates and potential candidates for the nomination is still far from finalized. With the "will-he-or-she-run-questions" still being asked and answered, some of the names with the highest familiarity among the general public are still not even declared candidates.

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Obviously because of her run for Vice President with John McCain, almost nine in ten Americans (86%) are familiar with Sarah Palin and 75% of U.S. adults are familiar with Rudy Giuliani, both of whom are still undeclared, but possible candidates for the nomination. Majorities of Americans are familiar with declared candidates Newt Gingrich (72%), Mitt Romney (67%), and Ron Paul (52%) while half are familiar with Michele Bachmann (50%). All other potential candidates are at 30% or under in terms of familiarity.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,183 adults surveyed online between July 11 and 18, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

Even among Republicans, many declared candidates do not have majorities familiar with them. Tim Pawlenty (33%), Rick Santorum (31%), Herman Cain (29%), and Jon Huntsman (15%) all have one-third of Republicans or less familiar with them.

With this in mind, it's not surprising then that among Republicans over one-quarter (28%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for if they were voting in the Republican primary. Rudy Giuliani (14%) and Mitt Romney (14%) rise to the top among Republicans followed by Sarah Palin (12%). All the other candidates presented are under 10% including Rick Perry (8%), Michele Bachmann (6%), and Ron Paul (5%). Among Independents there is a three tie for "first place" between Rudy Giuliani (10%), Mitt Romney (10%) and Ron Paul (10%). But over two in five Independents (42%) say they are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary election.

Against President Obama

Looking ahead to November, it seems there are three possible candidates who could give President Obama a difficult time. President Obama would lose his re-election if Rudy Giuliani (53% to 47%) or Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) was the Republican nominee. Each candidate would receive 50% of the vote if the President was running against Ron Paul. Right now, President Obama would win re-election against the 10 other candidates presented.

So What?

Right now the Republican party needs to figure out who they are and begin the process of coalescing around one candidate. In the study of politics, there is always a debate regarding electability and this election may show that clearly. Should Republicans nominate a candidate who stands for certain values or policies important to a sub-section of the party, even though that candidate may not be electable in the general election? This is a question the Republican party needs to answer if they want to win next November.

TABLE 1A REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Base: All adults
	Familiar (NET)	Very familiar	Somewhat familiar	Not familiar (NET)	Not very familiar	Not at all familiar
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Sarah Palin	86	48	38	14	8	5
Rudy Giuliani	75	37	39	25	11	14
Newt Gingrich	72	35	37	28	14	13
Mitt Romney	67	29	38	33	16	16
Ron Paul	52	19	33	48	21	27
Michele Bachmann	50	19	31	50	18	32
Rick Perry	30	13	17	70	20	50
Tim Pawlenty	28	9	19	72	22	50
Rick Santorum	28	10	18	72	20	52
Herman Cain	22	7	15	78	18	60
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	15	4	11	85	22	63
Gary Johnson	8	3	5	92	18	74
Thaddeus McCotter	8	3	5	92	15	77
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 1B REPUBLICAN FAMILIARITY "How familiar are you with each of the following people?" Summary of those saying "Very familiar" or "Somewhat familiar" Base: All adults
	Total	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Sarah Palin	86	88	89	89	85	86	91
Rudy Giuliani	75	77	77	78	74	74	80
Newt Gingrich	72	76	74	76	76	69	74
Mitt Romney	67	74	65	73	69	65	70
Ron Paul	52	55	50	60	54	48	59
Michele Bachmann	50	50	50	55	53	43	59
Rick Perry	30	38	26	30	37	26	29
Tim Pawlenty	28	33	25	33	32	25	33
Rick Santorum	28	31	27	32	33	23	32
Herman Cain	22	29	17	25	32	16	21
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	15	15	17	16	17	11	23
Gary Johnson	8	11	7	8	9	7	8
Thaddeus McCotter	8	8	7	8	6	8	7
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION "If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Total July 2011	Party ID			Philosophy
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Total July 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	8	8	11	14	11	10	10	12	13
Mitt Romney	10	10	11	14	12	10	11	11	13
Sarah Palin	7	5	8	12	7	5	9	8	7
Ron Paul	NA	6	7	5	5	10	6	6	8
Rick Perry	NA	NA	5	8	1	6	10	2	2
Michele Bachmann	2	2	4	6	2	6	8	3	2
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	NA	1	3	2	4	2	1	2	9
Herman Cain	NA	2	3	4	1	4	5	3	1
Tim Pawlenty	2	2	1	4	*	1	3	1	*
Newt Gingrich	5	4	1	3	*	1	3	*	1
Rick Santorum	1	*	1	1	1	*	1	1	*
Thaddeus McCotter	NA	NA	*	*	*	1	*	1	*
Gary Johnson	NA	1	*	*	1	*	1	*	*
Not at all sure	45	42	44	28	53	42	34	51	44
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than .05%; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

TABLE 3A 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Base: All adults
	Would vote for
	President Obama	The Republican nominee
	%	%
Thaddeus McCotter	57	43
Gary Johnson	56	44
Herman Cain	56	44
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	55	45
Rick Santorum	55	45
Rick Perry	54	46
Michele Bachmann	54	46
Tim Pawlenty	54	46
Newt Gingrich	54	46
Sarah Palin	54	46
Ron Paul	50	50
Mitt Romney	49	51
Rudy Giuliani	47	53
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3B 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA "Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?" Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee Base: All adults
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Total July 2011	Party ID			Philosophy			Tea Party Support
	Total March 2011	Total May 2011	Total July 2011	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	Tea Party Support
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudy Giuliani	51	51	53	89	24	56	84	48	19	87
Mitt Romney	49	49	51	87	21	55	84	45	19	87
Ron Paul	NA	45	50	83	18	57	82	42	19	85
Sarah Palin	42	42	46	79	20	48	78	40	13	83
Newt Gingrich	44	44	46	82	15	49	81	37	15	82
Tim Pawlenty	44	42	46	83	15	49	80	38	13	83
Michele Bachmann	41	42	46	81	18	49	79	39	13	83
Rick Perry	NA	NA	46	82	17	48	80	38	14	84
Rick Santorum	43	43	45	81	15	48	79	37	14	83
Jon Huntsman, Jr.	NA	41	45	81	16	46	77	37	14	81
Herman Cain	NA	41	44	79	15	46	77	37	12	81
Gary Johnson	NA	43	44	80	15	45	78	36	12	80
Thaddeus McCotter	NA	NA	43	79	15	44	77	36	12	80
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; NA indicates it was not asked in that poll.

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between July 11 to 18, 2011 among 2,183 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J40488
Q1218, 1225, 1230, 1240, 1250

The Harris Poll^® #87, July 26, 2011
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive