President Obama's Approval Ratings Inch Upwards

For first time, more Americans think he will be re-elected then think he will not be re-elected

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Feb 16, 2012, 12:11 ET

NEW YORK, Feb. 16, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Republicans continue to fight for the primary nomination and the biggest benefactor of their squabbles may be President Obama. This month, two in five Americans (40%) give the President positive ratings for the overall job he is doing while three in five (60%) give him negative ratings. This is up from last month when 36% gave the President positive marks and 64% gave him negative ones. This is also the highest the President has been since May of last year.

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These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,056 adults surveyed online between February 6 and 13, 2012 by Harris Interactive.

Looking at the possible swing states for the general election (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia) three in five Americans in these nine states (61%) give the President negative ratings while two in five (39%) give him positive marks.

Not surprisingly, just 8% of Republicans and 15% of Conservatives give President Obama positive ratings. Among Independents just over three in five (63%) give him negative ratings but just over half of Moderates (55%) feel the same. Among the President's party, three-quarters of Democrats (74%) give President Obama positive ratings and one-quarter (26%) give him negative ratings. Among liberals, seven in ten (70%) give the President positive marks and 30% give him negative ratings.

Direction of the Country
Another thing that continues to rise is the direction Americans think the country is going. This month over one-third of U.S. adults (34%) say things are going in the right direction while two-thirds (66%) say things are going off on the wrong track. In January, just over one-quarter of Americans (27%) said things in the country were going in the right direction while 73% said things were going off on the wrong track. This is also the highest percentage of people who think the country is going in the right direction since spring of 2011.

President Obama's re-election chances
As President Obama's approval ratings inch up, so do his re-election chances. If the election for president were to be held today, it is close with 45% of Americans likely to vote for him, 48% unlikely to vote for him and 7% who are not at all sure. Last month, over half of U.S. adults (52%) said they would be unlikely to vote to re-elect the President and 41% said they would be likely to do so. Looking at this by party, four in five Republicans (82%) and half of Independents (51%) would be unlikely to vote for him, while four in five Democrats (79%) would be likely to do so. In the likely 2012 swing states, 51% say they would be unlikely to vote for the President while 43% say they would be likely to vote for him.

When it comes to what Americans think will happen on Election Day, the numbers are moving in the President's direction as well. Last month, in January, over one-third of Americans (36%) thought President Obama would be re-elected while 41% thought he would not be re-elected. This month, 46% of U.S. adults now believe he will be re-elected while 37% say that he will not be.

So What?
What a difference a month makes. There seems to be a sense of optimism among Americans and that feeling is translating into positive news for President Obama. Some good economic news and a stellar few weeks for the stock markets can do wonders for an incumbent president's approval ratings and the White House is probably hoping this news, as well as the Republican primary, continues for the next few months.

TABLE 1 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?
Base: All adults

	TREND	Positive*	Negative**
	TREND	%	%
2012	February	40	60
	January	36	64
2011	December	36	64
	November	34	66
	October	33	67
	September	32	68
	August	32	68
	July	38	62
	June	38	62
	May 19th	45	55
	May 9th	46	54
	April	38	62
	March	39	61
	Feb.	42	58
	Jan.	44	56
2010	Dec.	36	64
	Nov.	38	62
	Oct.	37	63
	Sept.	38	62
	Aug.	40	60
	June	39	61
	May	42	58
	April	41	59
	March	41	59
	Jan.	40	60
2009	Dec.	41	59
	Nov.	43	57
	Oct.	45	55
	Sept.	49	51
	Aug.	51	49
	June	54	46
	May	59	41
	April	58	42
	March	55	45

*Positive = excellent or pretty good. **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 2 PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY PARTY & IDEOLOGY "How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?"
Base: All adults

	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology			2012 Swing States
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	2012 Swing States
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
POSITIVE	40	8	74	37	15	45	70	39
Excellent	7	2	15	5	3	7	16	10
Pretty good	33	6	58	33	12	38	55	29
NEGATIVE	60	92	26	63	85	55	30	61
Only fair	27	29	20	29	22	31	21	25
Poor	33	64	6	34	63	24	8	36

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

TABLE 3 RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK "Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"
Base: All adults

	TREND	Right Direction	Wrong Track
	TREND	%	%
2012	February	34	66
	January	27	73
2011	December	24	76
	November	20	80
	August	16	84
	July	25	75
	May	39	61
	January	37	63
2010	December	29	71
	April	39	61
2009	August	46	54
	January	19	72
2008	October	11	83
	February	23	69
2007	December	18	74
	February	29	62
2006	May	24	69
	February	32	59
2005	November	27	68
	January	46	48
2004	September	38	57
	June	35	59
2003	December	35	57
	June	44	51
2002	December	36	57
	June	46	48
2001	December	65	32
	June	43	52
2000	October	50	41
	June	40	51
1999	June	37	55
	March	47	45
1998	December	43	51
	June	48	44
1997	December	39	56
	April	36	55
1996	December	38	50
	June	29	64
1995	December	26	62
	June	24	65
1994	December	29	63
	June	28	65
1993	June	21	70
	March	39	50
1992	June	12	81
	January	20	75
1991	December	17	75
	January	58	32

TABLE 4 VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA "If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?"
Base: All adults

	2011									2012
	May 9	May 19	June	July	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	46	43	41	42	37	39	40	40	42	41	45
Very likely	33	32	30	30	27	26	26	30	29	30	33
Somewhat likely	14	11	11	12	10	13	13	10	13	11	12
Unlikely	47	49	52	52	55	53	54	53	51	52	48
Somewhat unlikely	7	8	7	8	7	7	8	6	8	7	5
Very unlikely	40	41	45	44	48	47	46	47	43	45	43
Not at all sure	6	8	6	6	7	8	6	7	7	7	7

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5 VOTING FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA – BY POLITICAL PARTY "If the election for president were to be held today, how likely would you be to vote for the current president, Barack Obama?"
Base: All adults

	Total	Political Party			Political Ideology			2012 Swing States
	Total	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.	Cons.	Mod.	Lib.	2012 Swing States
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Likely	45	12	79	42	16	50	76	43
Very likely	33	7	65	26	10	35	63	34
Somewhat likely	12	6	14	15	6	15	12	10
Unlikely	48	82	17	51	78	40	20	51
Somewhat unlikely	5	4	4	7	4	7	4	5
Very unlikely	43	77	12	45	74	34	15	45
Not at all sure	7	6	4	7	5	9	5	6

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; 2012 Swing States are Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia

TABLE 6 LIKELIHOOD OF OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION "If you had to say now, do you think that President Obama will be re-elected, or not?"
Base: All adults

	2011					2012		Political Party
	July	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Political Party
	July	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Feb.	Rep.	Dem.	Ind.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
I think he will be re-elected.	35	30	30	32	35	36	46	17	74	45
I do not think he will be re-elected.	42	47	49	46	44	41	37	64	15	37
Not at all sure.	23	23	21	23	20	22	17	19	12	18

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between February 6 and 13, 2012 among 2,056 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

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Q1205, 1210, 1218, 1255

The Harris Poll^® #17, February 16, 2012
By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is one of the world's leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American and European offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what's next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

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SOURCE Harris Interactive