Retail Sales Growth Supporting Economic Recovery

ARLINGTON, Va., March 12 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Monthly retail sales figures released today by the Department of Commerce show strong gains despite foul weather conditions that plagued much of the east coast in February, noted the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA).

Retail sales outside auto dealers increased by a healthy 0.8 percent in February following a solid 0.5-percent gain in January; non-auto retail sales are up by 4.2 percent from last February. Nearly all categories of retailers showed growth, with strong gains in electronics; sporting goods, books, and music; groceries; and department stores.  Sales rose moderately for furniture, building supplies, and clothing, and were weak only at internet retailers and pharmacy and health stores.  Sales of automobiles and parts fell by 2 percent for the month.  Overall retail sales including autos were up by 0.3 percent in February and are 3.9 percent higher than a year ago.  

Today's retail sales follow news last week from the U.S. Department of Labor that retail employment held steady last month, shedding just 400 jobs.

"The retail industry has customarily been the market gauge by which economic recovery is measured and, as a result, today's report is certainly welcome news that recovery is underway," said RILA President Sandy Kennedy.  

Retailers remain cautious and continue to look to policymakers for clarity on legislation under consideration such as the proposed health care legislation that will impose onerous rules that will undermine the quality and affordable coverage RILA members offer their employees, stifling job growth, undermining consumer confidence and halting economic progress.

"The gradual improvements seen in recent months belie the underlying economic uncertainties that continue to dampen consumer confidence, hinder business investment and suppress a robust recovery. Until consumers feel confident about their economic circumstances and businesses can comfortably predict near-term financial and regulatory conditions, robust growth will remain elusive."

Other recent data likewise suggest that the U.S. economy is recovering from the deep downturn of 2008 and 2009. GDP grew at a 5.9 percent pace in the final quarter of 2009, the fastest in more than six years. While that rapid pace is unlikely to persist, in part because government policies brought forward some business investment and new home purchases from 2010 into late 2009, rising family incomes and spending in January suggest that household prospects continue to improve.  Surveys of purchasing managers in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms likewise signal a further expansion of business spending.

The job market is finally showing signs of improvement. At 9.7 percent, the unemployment rate remains very high, but is down from a peak of 10.1 percent. New claims for unemployment benefits have fallen considerably over the past several months, and many analysts believe that there would have been positive job growth in February were it not for the severe winter storms that deterred hiring.

"Strong retail sales in February suggest that American families finally see the U.S. economy getting back on its feet," said Phillip Swagel, visiting professor at Georgetown University's McDonough School of Business and RILA outside economist.   "The next step in the recovery is a job market rebound that will sustain consumer spending and in turn spur business investment.  Prospects in the labor market are improving, but would be helped if employers had more clarity on the policy environment they will face with health costs, taxes, and regulation."

RILA is the trade association of the world's largest and most innovative retail companies. RILA members include more than 200 retailers, product manufacturers, and service suppliers, which together account for more than $1.5 trillion in annual sales, millions of American jobs and more than 100,000 stores, manufacturing facilities and distribution centers domestically and abroad.

Phillip L. Swagel is a visiting professor at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, where he teaches classes on financial markets and directs the Center for Financial Institutions, Policy, and Governance. He is also a non-resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Dr. Swagel was Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the Treasury Department from December 2006 to January 2009. He has previously taught at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and Northwestern University, and held positions at the President's Council of Economic Advisers, the International Monetary Fund, and the Federal Reserve.

SOURCE Retail Industry Leaders Association