Rhenium Market Reliant on Aerospace for Recovery
LONDON, July 28, 2010 /PRNewswire/ --
- Roskill Information Services
- Rhenium: Market Outlook to 2015 (8th edition 2010)
The rhenium market went through a significant downward correction in 2009 after a period of strong demand growth and an escalation in prices up to the last quarter of 2008. The credit crisis and associated recession, particularly in North America and Europe, severely affected the major markets for rhenium and demand dropped by 16% in 2009. Primary production of rhenium responded by falling by almost 10%, but this was not enough to stop prices plummeting from a peak of US$12,000/kg on a spot basis towards the end of 2008 to around US$4-4,500/kg in mid 2009 before bottoming out. Rhenium metal prices are currently around US$4,500-5,000/kg.
Consumption of rhenium in 2009 was estimated at 53,500kg, of which 78% was consumed in superalloys, 14% in catalysts and 8% in other end-uses including space, alloy mill products, petrochemicals and medical targets. The USA is the world's largest producer of aerospace superalloys and is therefore the biggest consumer of rhenium. Consumption of rhenium in the USA has increased by 5.4%py over the last nine years, reaching 52,200kg in 2008. Consumption of rhenium in Europe peaked at 9,000kg in 2007, whilst consumption in other countries has increased from 3,000kg Re in 1998 to 4,500kg Re in 2009.
Roskill's base case growth scenario for rhenium is that total demand for rhenium will increase at an annual average rate of almost 5%py for the period 2009 to 2015, taking total rhenium demand to 71,500kg. This rate is slightly above forecasts for world GDP over the same period, but is well below the growth rates seen up to 2008, due to the severe drop in demand in 2009, the possibility of recycling/re-use of rhenium and greater control over the unit consumption of rhenium in superalloys. It is unlikely that consumption for rhenium will follow a linear growth trend, particularly given the cyclical nature of the aerospace industry. As the global economy recovers from the current recession, demand is expected to recover strongly for the period 2010-2012 before flattening in 2012/13 and then recovering in 2014/15
Primary production of rhenium totalled 41,200kg in 2009, a 10% drop from 45,600kg in 2008. In 2009, almost two-thirds of primary rhenium production is estimated to have been carried out in Chile. Other important primary producing countries were the USA, Poland, Kazakhstan, and China. Lesser amounts of rhenium were produced in Uzbekistan and Armenia.
The scarcity and high value of rhenium are an incentive to recycle used material. Capacity for secondary rhenium production could be as high as 30,000kgpy Re, but a large part of this capacity is for recycling of spent catalysts, which is a closed loop and the rhenium recovered is not available to the open market. The majority of secondary production is carried out in Germany and the USA, but significant amounts of secondary rhenium are also recovered in Estonia and Russia.
The forecast growth in demand for rhenium is likely to be satisfied by expansions at existing facilities (e.g. Molymet, KGHM Ecoren) and new projects (e.g. Codelco, Kennecott Utah Copper, Xstrata Copper, Ivanhoe Australia). In addition, superalloy scrap will be a significant potential source of secondary rhenium units, as the recycling loop in the superalloy industry is currently far less efficient than the system in place in the catalyst sector. Superalloy scrap falls into two main categories; 'revert', which is essentially material that can be re-used 'as is' to produce the same or a different alloy and scrap, which is other material that tends to be processed to extract the constituent metals, such as rhenium.
Roskill has forecast future rhenium metal prices to 2015 on a "spot" basis. Prices are expected to start recovering in 2010, but are unlikely to regain the average levels of 2009 due to the steep nature of the decline in prices from 2008. Roskill expects spot prices to continue to rise steadily over the forecast period to reach an average of around US$6,500-7,500/kg in 2015, although there may be a slight correction in prices in 2012 as demand for rhenium in superalloys is expected to level off in that year. Contract prices should follow a similar trend and are likely to close the gap on spot prices as contracts are renegotiated with reference to spot prices.
Rhenium: Market outlook to 2015 (8th edition, 2010) is available at GBP3500 / US$7000 / EUR5600 from Roskill Information Services Ltd, 27a Leopold Road, London SW19 7BB, England. Tel: +44(0)20-8944-0066. Fax +44(0)20-8947-9568 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.roskill.com/rhenium
Note to editors
The report contains 130 pages, 73 tables and 25 figures. It provides a detailed review of the industry, with subsections on the activities of the leading producing companies. It also analyses consumption, trade and prices.
For further information or a review copy of this report, please contact Mark Seddon ([email protected]). To receive press releases via email, please contact Prakash Ramachandran ([email protected]).
Table of Contents
Page
1 Summary 1
2 Occurrence of rhenium 8
3 Reserves and resources of rhenium 11
4 Rhenium recovery processes 13
5 World production of rhenium 15
5.1 Production by country 15
5.2 Primary production of rhenium 16
5.3 Secondary production of rhenium 17
5.4 Supply of rhenium from stockpiles 18
5.5 Outlook for the production of rhenium 18
6 Current and potential rhenium-producing
countries and companies 22
6.1 Argentina 22
6.1.1 Yamana Gold - Agua Rica Project 22
6.2 Armenia 23
6.2.1 Producers of primary rhenium in Armenia 23
6.2.1.1 Armenian Molybdenum Production (AMP) 24
6.2.1.2 Yerevan Pure Iron Plant (YPIP) 24
6.2.1.3 Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Company (ZCMC) 24
6.3 Australia 25
6.3.1 Potential producers of rhenium in Australia 25
6.3.1.1 Ivanhoe Australia Ltd. 25
6.3.1.2 Other projects 26
6.4 Austria 26
6.5 Belgium 27
6.6 Bulgaria 27
6.7 Canada 27
6.7.1 Production of rhenium contained in molybdenum
concentrates in
Canada 28
6.7.2 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Canada 28
6.7.2.1 Imperial Metals Corporation/Japan Group 28
6.7.2.2 Taseko Mines Limited 29
6.7.2.3 Teck Resources 30
6.7.3 Potential producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium
in Canada 30
6.7.4 Producers of secondary rhenium in Canada 31
6.7.4.1 Recapture Metals 31
6.8 Chile 31
6.8.1 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Chile 32
6.8.1.1 Amerigo Resources 33
6.8.1.2 Anglo American Sur 34
6.8.1.3 Antofagasta plc 34
6.8.1.4 Corporacion National del Cobre de Chile
(Codelco) 36
6.8.1.5 Cia Minera Dona Ines de Collahuasi 40
6.8.2 Production of primary rhenium in Chile 40
6.8.3 Producers of primary rhenium in Chile 41
6.8.3.1 Molibdenos y Metales S.A (Molymet) 41
6.8.4 Exports of rhenium from Chile 47
6.9 China 48
6.9.1 Producers of primary rhenium in China 49
6.9.2 Producers of rhenium products in China 49
6.9.3 Exports of rhenium from China 50
6.1 Czech Republic 50
6.11 Estonia 50
6.12 France 51
6.13 Germany 51
6.13.1 Producers of secondary rhenium in Germany 52
6.13.1.1 W.C. Heraeus GmbH 52
6.13.1.2 H.C. Starck GmbH & Company KG 52
6.13.1.3 Buss & Buss Spezialmetalle GmbH 53
6.13.2 Exports of rhenium from Germany 53
6.14 Iran 54
6.14.1 National Iranian Copper Industries Co (Nicico) 54
6.15 Japan 55
6.16 Kazakhstan 55
6.16.1 Production of primary rhenium in Kazakhstan 55
6.16.2 Producers of primary rhenium in Kazakhstan 56
6.16.2.1 State enterprise (RGP) Zhezkazganredmet 56
6.17 Mexico 57
6.17.1 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Mexico 57
6.17.2 Production of rhenium in Mexico 58
6.18 Mongolia 58
6.18.1 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Mongolia 59
6.18.2 Producers of primary rhenium in Mongolia 59
6.19 Netherlands 60
6.2 Papua New Guinea 61
6.21 Peru 61
6.21.1 Production of rhenium contained in molybdenum
concentrates in Peru 61
6.21.2 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Peru 62
6.21.2.1 Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SPCC) 62
6.21.2.2 Cia Minera Antamina SA 63
6.22 Poland 63
6.22.1 Producers of primary rhenium in Poland 64
6.22.1.1 KGHM Ecoren 64
6.23 Russia 64
6.23.1 Producers of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in Russia 65
6.23.1.1 Strikeforce Mining and Resources (SMR) 65
6.23.2 Production of primary rhenium in Russia 66
6.23.3 Producers of primary rhenium in Russia 67
6.23.3.1 A/O Metallurg 67
6.23.3.2 JSC Pobedit 67
6.23.4 Former producers of primary rhenium in Russia 68
6.23.5 Producers of secondary rhenium in Russia 68
6.23.6 Former processors of rhenium in Russia 68
6.23.7 Exports of rhenium from Russia 68
6.24 Serbia 69
6.25 Tadjikistan 69
6.26 United Kingdom 69
6.27 USA 70
6.27.1 Production of molybdenum concentrates
containing rhenium in the USA 70
6.27.2 Production of primary rhenium in the USA 71
6.27.3 Producers of primary rhenium in the USA 71
6.27.3.1 Climax Molybdenum (Freeport McMoRan Copper &
Gold) 71
6.27.4 Future producers of primary rhenium in the USA 74
6.27.4.1 Kennecott Utah Copper Corp. 74
6.27.5 Producers of secondary rhenium in the USA 75
6.27.5.1 Gemini Industries 75
6.27.5.2 Colonial Metals Inc. 75
6.27.6 Downstream rhenium sector in the USA 76
6.27.6.1 AAA Molybdenum Products, Inc. 76
6.27.6.2 BASF/Engelhard 77
6.27.6.3 Cannon Muskegon 77
6.27.6.4 Certified Alloys Products Incorporated 77
6.27.6.5 Climax Engineered Materials 77
6.27.6.6 Concept Alloys L.L.C 77
6.27.6.7 Criterion Catalysts and Technologies L.P. 78
6.27.6.8 H. Cross Company 78
6.27.6.9 Powmet Incorporated 78
6.27.6.10 Rhenium Alloys Incorporated 78
6.27.6.11 Ultramet 79
6.27.7 Imports of rhenium into the USA 79
6.27.8 Consumption of rhenium in the USA 80
6.28 Uzbekistan 81
7 Consumption of rhenium 82
7.1 Consumption of rhenium by end-use 82
7.2 Consumption of rhenium by country 83
7.3 Outlook for rhenium demand 84
8 End-uses of rhenium 86
8.1 High performance alloys/Superalloys 86
8.1.1 Use of rhenium in nickel-based superalloys 87
8.1.2 Markets for superalloys 88
8.1.2.1 Aerospace applications 88
8.1.2.2 Non-aerospace applications 94
8.1.3 Consumption of rhenium in superalloys 96
8.2 Consumption of rhenium in catalysts 101
8.2.1 Rhenium use in catalytic reforming 101
8.2.1.1 Catalytic reforming processes 101
8.2.1.2 Principal platinum-rhenium catalytic
reforming processes 102
8.2.1.3 Market for reforming catalysts 104
8.2.2 Rhenium use in catalysts for BTX production 106
8.2.3 Gas-to-liquid catalysts 107
8.2.4 Catalyst regeneration and recycling 108
8.2.5 Outlook for rhenium in catalysts 109
8.3 Consumption of rhenium in other end-uses 111
8.3.1 Use of tungsten-rhenium and
molybdenum-rhenium alloys 111
8.3.1.1 Use of rhenium alloys in lamp filaments 112
8.3.1.2 Use of rhenium alloys in other filament
applications 112
8.3.1.3 Use of rhenium alloys in heater elements 113
8.3.1.4 Use of rhenium alloys in X-ray tubes and
targets 113
8.3.1.5 Use of rhenium alloys in thermocouples 113
8.3.1.6 Use of rhenium and rhenium alloys in
electrical contacts 114
8.3.2 Use of rhenium in booster rocket nozzles 115
8.3.3 Uses of rhenium compounds 115
9 International trade in rhenium 117
9.1 Trade flows for rhenium 119
10 Rhenium supply/demand balance 121
10.1 Forecast rhenium supply/demand balance 122
11 Rhenium prices 124
11.1 Rhenium price mechanism 124
11.2 Rhenium price history 125
11.3 Rhenium price forecast 128
SOURCE Roskill Information Services
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