Roanoke College Poll: Virginians Optimistic About Economy, Consumer Spending

SALEM, Va., Nov. 21, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) surveyed 603 Virginians about their financial situation, general business conditions and their inclination for purchasing durable goods.  

The IPOR developed three indexes of consumer confidence in Virginia modeled after the University of Michigan's widely publicized set of indexes measuring national consumer sentiment.  The Virginia Index of Current Conditions (VAICC) considers household financial situations compared to the past year and consumers' willingness to purchase durable goods such as refrigerators and furniture.  The Virginia Index of Consumer Expectations (VAICE) gauges household expectations of their finances and business conditions in the coming year.  The Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS) is an aggregate measure of current conditions and future beliefs of Virginia households. 

The November VAICC is 64, compared to the preliminary national value of 76.6. This was the highest for the national number since June, although the number is well off the 90-100 range sustained during the mild recession of 2001 and the 111.3 in the first quarter of 2007. The national number has not gone above 90 since January 2008.  Specifically, 44% of Virginians felt they are worse off financially now than they were a year ago and 60% reported that they thought business conditions were worse today than they were a year ago.  

The VAICE is 76, suggesting that households are optimistic that their financial situation and business conditions will improve over the next year.  Nearly a third, (32%) of Virginians reported a belief that they would be better off financially a year from now. Comparably, the nation is less optimistic about the coming year. The national preliminary ICE is 56, although the national number considers expectations over the coming five years, rather than just one year from now.

The VAICS is 70, which is higher than the preliminary national value of 64.2. The national preliminary values are based on a sample of 250 to 300 consumers. The final national November values will be released November 23, 2011. Potential reasons for the greater optimism in Virginia versus the nation include a statewide unemployment rate that is 2.5 points lower than the national rate of 9.0% and per capita income that is more than 10% higher than the national average.

More information may be found on the Roanoke College website: http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_Nov_2011.htm.